XPost: alt.politics.usa, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.politics.republicans
On 4/11/25 21:17, c186282 wrote:
On 4/11/25 8:42 PM, -hh wrote:
On 4/11/25 17:28, c186282 wrote:
DOW, about 620
NASDAQ about 340
S&P about 95
Treasury yields up a speck.
Dollar down a speck.
Gold up 1.93%
Silver up about 3.5% for some reason.
Internationals down a speck.
source : Bloomberg
Still way down YTD.
Geez ... expect INSTANT gains ?
Clearly one of the "microwave oven generation" ...
more than 60 seconds is FOREVER :-)
Not at all: merely pointing out that the day-to-day volatility does not
a signal make.
In any case, the worst of the chickenshits
and saboteurs seems to be over.
Only a fool actually believes that, because higher tariff rates hasn't disappeared: the "90 days" puts the Markets into purgatory, with a
"Sword of Damocles" uncertainty hanging above them.
Plus not all tariffs are part of this "90 days", and are currently in
effect.
The sooner the US/China thing can reach a
functional resolution the better - but,
mostly due to the politics, neither side
wants to make the first move ... which
would be interpreted as "weakness". Maybe
micro-fixes, that mostly won't even make
the news, are the way around the politics ?
Which is an element for the "why" on the afternoon movement to have
been to the plus side ... keeping in mind that for news cycles, its
Friday.
The ONLY way to shake up the current, USA-negative,
trade situation was, alas, a sort of nuclear bomb.
Nonsense.
HAS to be enough punishment/uncertainty to actually
get govs and corps to DO SOMETHING. They don't WANT
to - strongly pref their own protectionist shields
and/or offshore manufacturing. Gotta kinda RUIN
that equation or they won't change a damned thing.
And there's absolutely no other possible alternative? You know, such as changing the tax code to change what business actions are
rewarded/punished? After all, if this problem has all been caused by
the big boys, wouldn't higher taxes focused on them be more appropriate
than a collective punishment of working class Americans?
Plus to do this by higher taxes on these big boys would also reduce the
deficit and debt problems, with it starting within just a fiscal
quarter: how is this approach not a win-win for America?
And yes, there WILL be short/medium-term fallout.
Where "short/medium-term" is for how long? They've not made any
promises there, have they?
Historically, the 2000 and 2008 crashes lasted for ~6 years before the
Markets recovered, and the Great Depression's recovery time was a
whopping 33 years (1929-1954). As such, an imporant question to ask
yourself is what life stage you'll be in in 6+ years ... and in 33 years
too, for worst case: will you even still be living when the Markets
finally do actually recover?
However the longer-term gains .......
Are still very vague, as is also the timeline. Wouldn't a solid
business plan have articulated the ROI metrics?
The USA does not require 'perfect' fixes - indeed
there is no 'perfect' really. What we DO need is
more slack and more self-supply options. We've
been running up debts to make things easy for
the rest of the world TOO long now.
True, but we've also vastly grown our Services exports, which offset the
flow of material goods. Look it up.
Something bad IS gonna happen with China - it is
clear they DO intend to blockade/invade Taiwan
and kinda try to seize the whole region, including
some of Japan. Chinese mil buildup has been HIGH
the past decade and they keep practicing aggression.
Yes, which is more the reason that we should have supported Ukraine to
the hilt as a deterrent to China's ambitions: our actual costs are
still ridiculously tiny (~4% of DoD budget, even with inflated values on ancient surplus hardware): being timid here has only emboldened China.
In case of any level of war, China trade will be the
first thing to go - so we HAVE to have self-supply
options either in-place or in-development.
So the 'smart' plan is to blow up our supply line before we've built its replacement: brilliant! /s
Trump
should accept no 'promises' ... in-USA factories
and such REQUIRE purchase/ground-breaking/building
real quick or all deals are OFF.
Oh, like FOXCONN's new construction in Wisconsin in 2016?
Do you remember (or check) on how this Trump promise turned out?
How many times are you going to let yourself be fooled?
Negating local
tariff wars needs to END real quick too. It needs
to be sane, the USA can't be wrecking our allies
economies, but THEY can't be wrecking OURS either.
Too late; the damage has already been done: our allies are selling off
US Treasuries, which is raising our costs of borrowing: based on these
rates the USA is now considered to a higher credit risk than Greece.
Sorry, but the boring old world has ENDED (again)
and proper measures ARE required. Or are you one
of those who HOPE the western world collapses ?
Good luck with our "betters" - you WON'T like them.
The current administration is being a Mafia boss where corporations have
to bribe him ("protection money") get tariff exemptions.
-hh
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