https://phys.org/news/2025-04-odds-asteroid-briefly-threatened-earth.html
A huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has
a nearly 4% chance of smashing into the moon, according to new
data from the James Webb Space Telescope.
The asteroid, thought to be capable of leveling a city, set a
new record in February for having the highest chance—3.1%—of
hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured.
Earth's planetary defense community leapt into action and
further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid—called
2024 YR4—will strike Earth on December 22, 2032.
But the odds that it will instead crash into Earth's satellite
have been steadily rising.
. . .
Ok ... this one is kinda large.
IF it hits the moon it COULD fling-up all kinds
of debris - some large but mostly small. As such
the threat to the ground would be relatively small,
but the threat to SATELLITES might be MUCH more.
Does NOT take anything large to trash sats - or
the ISS. A cloud of BB-sized bits flinging off
the moon would SHRED sats - and debris from those
would shred even MORE. Earth orbit could become
totally unsafe for anything for a year or two,
or even more.
No comm sats, no spy sats, no weather sats, no
StarLink - a BIG problem for modern society. The
Hubble or potentially even Webb telescopes could
be at notable risk.
Bad case ... assume NO sat was safe for maybe
a DECADE. How WOULD we fill in ? Tick tick ...
time to figure it out is shrinking rapidly.
OR, if we move quickly, we might deflect the
thing with a nearby nuke. Wouldn't take much
of a push - but the AMOUNT of push required
increases daily. Russia especially has a big
inventory of large nukes - but Musk's Falcon
Heavy is probably the best delivery vehicle.
Of interest, PUTIN has long been very keen
on asteroid-deflection capabilities ...
Oh, modern military issues ... without spy
sats they'd become MUCH worse. Nobody could
confirm anything about what their enemies
are doing - and GUESSING always trends towards
the paranoid side.
On a sunny day (Thu, 3 Apr 2025 21:30:48 -0400) it happened c186282 <[email protected]> wrote in <[email protected]>:
https://phys.org/news/2025-04-odds-asteroid-briefly-threatened-earth.html
A huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has
a nearly 4% chance of smashing into the moon, according to new
data from the James Webb Space Telescope.
The asteroid, thought to be capable of leveling a city, set a
new record in February for having the highest chance—3.1%—of
hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured.
Earth's planetary defense community leapt into action and
further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid—called
2024 YR4—will strike Earth on December 22, 2032.
But the odds that it will instead crash into Earth's satellite
have been steadily rising.
. . .
Ok ... this one is kinda large.
IF it hits the moon it COULD fling-up all kinds
of debris - some large but mostly small. As such
the threat to the ground would be relatively small,
but the threat to SATELLITES might be MUCH more.
Does NOT take anything large to trash sats - or
the ISS. A cloud of BB-sized bits flinging off
the moon would SHRED sats - and debris from those
would shred even MORE. Earth orbit could become
totally unsafe for anything for a year or two,
or even more.
No comm sats, no spy sats, no weather sats, no
StarLink - a BIG problem for modern society. The
Hubble or potentially even Webb telescopes could
be at notable risk.
OTOH I am radio ham, we have shortwave for around the earth.
No GPS?
that will impact navigation in a big way!
but I still do have a sextant :-)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sextant
There are plenty geostatic sattelites:
https://en.kingofsat.tv/
move your mouse over the icons at the top of that page to see the names of those sats
I have a steerable dish to pick out some..
Hams have their own sats too.
So messages of destruction will make it around the globe, local news will echo it.
As to survival, having a good multiband shortwave radio is a must.
Space is huge, I do not expect the chances from some rocks from a moon impact to do a lot of harm..
On 4/4/25 2:39 AM, Jan Panteltje wrote:
On a sunny day (Thu, 3 Apr 2025 21:30:48 -0400) it happened c186282
<[email protected]> wrote in <[email protected]>:
https://phys.org/news/2025-04-odds-asteroid-briefly-threatened-earth.html >>>
A huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has
a nearly 4% chance of smashing into the moon, according to new
data from the James Webb Space Telescope.
The asteroid, thought to be capable of leveling a city, set a
new record in February for having the highest chance—3.1%—of
hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured.
Earth's planetary defense community leapt into action and
further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid—called
2024 YR4—will strike Earth on December 22, 2032.
But the odds that it will instead crash into Earth's satellite
have been steadily rising.
. . .
Ok ... this one is kinda large.
IF it hits the moon it COULD fling-up all kinds
of debris - some large but mostly small. As such
the threat to the ground would be relatively small,
but the threat to SATELLITES might be MUCH more.
Does NOT take anything large to trash sats - or
the ISS. A cloud of BB-sized bits flinging off
the moon would SHRED sats - and debris from those
would shred even MORE. Earth orbit could become
totally unsafe for anything for a year or two,
or even more.
No comm sats, no spy sats, no weather sats, no
StarLink - a BIG problem for modern society. The
Hubble or potentially even Webb telescopes could
be at notable risk.
OTOH I am radio ham, we have shortwave for around the earth.
No GPS?
that will impact navigation in a big way!
but I still do have a sextant :-)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sextant
There are plenty geostatic sattelites:
https://en.kingofsat.tv/
move your mouse over the icons at the top of that page to see the names of those sats
I have a steerable dish to pick out some..
Hams have their own sats too.
So messages of destruction will make it around the globe, local news will echo it.
As to survival, having a good multiband shortwave radio is a must.
Space is huge, I do not expect the chances from some rocks from a moon impact to do a lot of harm..
Has/DOES happen though. If the Tungusta thing
happened now It'd probably start WW3 before
anybody figured it out.
We've never seen the effects of big smack on
the moon. Depending, it COULD send vast amounts
of little specks into all the space around. As
said, doesn't take MUCH to trash sats - and we
now HEAVILY depend on them.
Ham and such ARE good - but they're not gonna be
a functional backup to sat systems. I say this
actually looking at my AARL Handbook/tome on my
table (wish it had more on pre-tube/valve tech
just in case of social collapse).
On a sunny day (Fri, 4 Apr 2025 23:43:00 -0400) it happened c186282 <[email protected]> wrote in <[email protected]>:
On 4/4/25 2:39 AM, Jan Panteltje wrote:
On a sunny day (Thu, 3 Apr 2025 21:30:48 -0400) it happened c186282
<[email protected]> wrote in <[email protected]>:
https://phys.org/news/2025-04-odds-asteroid-briefly-threatened-earth.html >>>>
A huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has
a nearly 4% chance of smashing into the moon, according to new
data from the James Webb Space Telescope.
The asteroid, thought to be capable of leveling a city, set a
new record in February for having the highest chance—3.1%—of
hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured.
Earth's planetary defense community leapt into action and
further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid—called
2024 YR4—will strike Earth on December 22, 2032.
But the odds that it will instead crash into Earth's satellite
have been steadily rising.
. . .
Ok ... this one is kinda large.
IF it hits the moon it COULD fling-up all kinds
of debris - some large but mostly small. As such
the threat to the ground would be relatively small,
but the threat to SATELLITES might be MUCH more.
Does NOT take anything large to trash sats - or
the ISS. A cloud of BB-sized bits flinging off
the moon would SHRED sats - and debris from those
would shred even MORE. Earth orbit could become
totally unsafe for anything for a year or two,
or even more.
No comm sats, no spy sats, no weather sats, no
StarLink - a BIG problem for modern society. The
Hubble or potentially even Webb telescopes could
be at notable risk.
OTOH I am radio ham, we have shortwave for around the earth.
No GPS?
that will impact navigation in a big way!
but I still do have a sextant :-)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sextant
There are plenty geostatic sattelites:
https://en.kingofsat.tv/
move your mouse over the icons at the top of that page to see the names of those sats
I have a steerable dish to pick out some..
Hams have their own sats too.
So messages of destruction will make it around the globe, local news will echo it.
As to survival, having a good multiband shortwave radio is a must.
Space is huge, I do not expect the chances from some rocks from a moon impact to do a lot of harm..
Has/DOES happen though. If the Tungusta thing
happened now It'd probably start WW3 before
anybody figured it out.
Na, that thing exploded at about 10 km hight
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
the geostatic satellites are at hundreds of km above the earth.
Some SpaceX Starlink stuff may be damaged, but that is not that critical to infrastructure for most purposes.
We've never seen the effects of big smack on
the moon. Depending, it COULD send vast amounts
of little specks into all the space around. As
said, doesn't take MUCH to trash sats - and we
now HEAVILY depend on them.
High altitude nukes have killed sats, US killed
Telstar got killed by a US high altitude nuke test
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telstar#In_service
there was a song about Telstar too :-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryrEPzsx1gQ
Ham and such ARE good - but they're not gonna be
a functional backup to sat systems. I say this
actually looking at my AARL Handbook/tome on my
table (wish it had more on pre-tube/valve tech
just in case of social collapse).
ARRL handbook, yes I had it in the tube day,
started working in TV broadcasting in 1968 as technician,
ran control rooms too for Eurovision etc..
Much equipment in the old studios was tube based...
The newer studios were all transistor, except fot the tubes in the monitors, cameras, film scanners ....
Also designed my own high power shortwave SSB transmitter before that in school days,
with tubes.. so no tube fear here.
No transistor fear and no programming fear either..
https://panteltje.nl/index1.html
https://panteltje.nl/panteltje/raspberry_pi_dvb-s_transmitter/
check out the download link:
https://panteltje.nl/panteltje/newsflex/download.html
Before b broadcasting I designed stuff for army and navy,
After I left broadcasting in 1976 I travelled the world and worked on many things
from mil to art to space.
As to survival, come across some old tubes I build you a radio in no time ;-) No math needed, only a soldering iron and some wire ;-)
On 4/5/25 1:22 AM, Jan Panteltje wrote:
On a sunny day (Fri, 4 Apr 2025 23:43:00 -0400) it happened c186282
<[email protected]> wrote in <[email protected]>:
On 4/4/25 2:39 AM, Jan Panteltje wrote:
On a sunny day (Thu, 3 Apr 2025 21:30:48 -0400) it happened c186282
<[email protected]> wrote in <[email protected]>:
https://phys.org/news/2025-04-odds-asteroid-briefly-threatened-earth.html >>>>>
A huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has
a nearly 4% chance of smashing into the moon, according to new
data from the James Webb Space Telescope.
The asteroid, thought to be capable of leveling a city, set a
new record in February for having the highest chance—3.1%—of
hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured.
Earth's planetary defense community leapt into action and
further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid—called
2024 YR4—will strike Earth on December 22, 2032.
But the odds that it will instead crash into Earth's satellite
have been steadily rising.
. . .
Ok ... this one is kinda large.
IF it hits the moon it COULD fling-up all kinds
of debris - some large but mostly small. As such
the threat to the ground would be relatively small,
but the threat to SATELLITES might be MUCH more.
Does NOT take anything large to trash sats - or
the ISS. A cloud of BB-sized bits flinging off
the moon would SHRED sats - and debris from those
would shred even MORE. Earth orbit could become
totally unsafe for anything for a year or two,
or even more.
No comm sats, no spy sats, no weather sats, no
StarLink - a BIG problem for modern society. The
Hubble or potentially even Webb telescopes could
be at notable risk.
OTOH I am radio ham, we have shortwave for around the earth.
No GPS?
that will impact navigation in a big way!
but I still do have a sextant :-)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sextant
There are plenty geostatic sattelites:
https://en.kingofsat.tv/
move your mouse over the icons at the top of that page to see the names of those sats
I have a steerable dish to pick out some..
Hams have their own sats too.
So messages of destruction will make it around the globe, local news will echo it.
As to survival, having a good multiband shortwave radio is a must.
Space is huge, I do not expect the chances from some rocks from a moon impact to do a lot of harm..
Has/DOES happen though. If the Tungusta thing
happened now It'd probably start WW3 before
anybody figured it out.
Na, that thing exploded at about 10 km hight
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
the geostatic satellites are at hundreds of km above the earth.
Some SpaceX Starlink stuff may be damaged, but that is not that critical to infrastructure for most purposes.
We've never seen the effects of big smack on
the moon. Depending, it COULD send vast amounts
of little specks into all the space around. As
said, doesn't take MUCH to trash sats - and we
now HEAVILY depend on them.
High altitude nukes have killed sats, US killed
Telstar got killed by a US high altitude nuke test
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telstar#In_service
there was a song about Telstar too :-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryrEPzsx1gQ
Ham and such ARE good - but they're not gonna be
a functional backup to sat systems. I say this
actually looking at my AARL Handbook/tome on my
table (wish it had more on pre-tube/valve tech
just in case of social collapse).
ARRL handbook, yes I had it in the tube day,
started working in TV broadcasting in 1968 as technician,
ran control rooms too for Eurovision etc..
Much equipment in the old studios was tube based...
The newer studios were all transistor, except fot the tubes in the monitors, cameras, film scanners ....
Also designed my own high power shortwave SSB transmitter before that in school days,
with tubes.. so no tube fear here.
No transistor fear and no programming fear either..
https://panteltje.nl/index1.html
https://panteltje.nl/panteltje/raspberry_pi_dvb-s_transmitter/
check out the download link:
https://panteltje.nl/panteltje/newsflex/download.html
Before b broadcasting I designed stuff for army and navy,
After I left broadcasting in 1976 I travelled the world and worked on many things
from mil to art to space.
As to survival, come across some old tubes I build you a radio in no time ;-)
No math needed, only a soldering iron and some wire ;-)
Got the LC resonance equations memorized I presume -
some people are good at that stuff :-)
When I came along it was sort of the transition period
between tubes and transistors - you'd find TVs and such
that were sort of half and half. Tubes were still better
for higher-frequency work, but transistors soon reached
and went beyond in that department.
Now, about the only place you see tubes is in high-end
audio.
Remember something a few years back about attempts to
make cold-cathode tubes ... the cathode was micro-
etched using optical masks similar to how you'd make
microchips ... leaving ten zillion pointy little nits
that, under voltage, would happily spew out a stream
of electrons. No heater = runs cool & efficient and
no burn-outs. Never heard what became of that work.
Maybe not a big enough market ?
My only coming-up project is a two tran FM transmitter
to attach to my mail box. The plan is that an amorph
solar cell charges some super-caps and, on triggering,
the thing gives off a signal for a second or two until
the caps run down, thus resetting the circuit. Plan
to aim at the very top or bottom of the commercial
FM band. It's trivial work, but keeps the brain going.
How about coils wound on plastic soda straws ? Oh,
and the whole deal needs to be kind of hidden from
vandals and from making the mail carrier thinking the
box is wired to attack.
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