XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh
On 4/3/25 19:05, pothead wrote:
On 2025-04-03, -hh <[email protected]> wrote:
On 4/3/25 12:53, David LaRue wrote:
c186282 <[email protected]> wrote in
news:[email protected]:
11:30 am EDT
DOW, down 1393
NASDAQ, down 902
S&P, down 225
Kinda expected, but disappointing too.
I understand Trump wants to shift manufacturing back
into the USA - better long-run - but those factories
can't be built overnight. Might take a couple of years
to build and tune-in, even for stupid little auto parts.
Yup. Plus there should also be long term 'infrastructure' commitments,
so that Enterprise has confidence that policy isn't going to flip-flop.
I've stated many times that I am a firm believer in modernizing
the US infrastructure.
I was disappointed that Trump did not accomplish this during his first term.
It didn't happen because there was "nothing in it" for him personally.
Keep in mind that he's (at best) a 'Real Estate Guy'.
At the same time, I supported Biden getting a bill passed. At least until even he admitted the so called infrastructure bill was really a green new deal
in sheep's clothing.
Why should there be a problem with green being part of infrastructure improvements? Because from a business standpoint, its already been demonstrated that even without incentives, solar/wind is faster &
cheaper to build & cheaper lifecycle costs (LCOE) than coal, nuclear,
natural gas.
And looking beyond ourselves, we see that for its deployment, the USA is
behind literally everyone: green delivers over half their power needs
in Latin America, 47% in Europe & India, 35% in China & Australia, and
even 22% of Africa's. Meantime, we're at just 21%. Over the past
decade, the rest of the world has been kicking ass & we're the laggard.
Water under the bridge.
Bottom line is the US infrastructure is a disaster. Last week there were sinkholes
on route 80 a major highway.
Which started back in December and is yet another example of American
"lets ignore known problems because fixes take money": the region's
been known to have had tons of abandoned mines & sinkhole openings
thereof for literally decades. This one affecting I-80 is from two
known abandoned mines from the 1700-1800s that no one cared anything
about when the highway was built in the 1960s & is now finally coming
home to roost.
But wait, there's more. Here's a map, right at the I-80 location: <
https://maps.app.goo.gl/ixBFYmincXrybPVe6>
Look at it just south (down) of I-80, west (left) of Rt-15 to find the
"Knotty Pine Pub". Now move west (left) across the unnamed street, and
before the next street (West Morris Greenway): see that empty lot with
a pond in it? Well, that pond is a surface sinkhole of an abandoned
mine shaft that's now water filled. Last, see the "Avalon Wharton"
between it and I-80? That's a fancier apartment complex built in 2012
... and reportedly is now seeing foundation cracks opening up. Golly,
wonder what those could be from?
If you have driven across the VZ or GW bridges lately the road is full of potholes.
Don't even get me started on the WB or Manhattan bridges. On the WB you can literally
look through the potholes and see the East river.
The US has a huge infrastructure deficit in our bridges. I can recall
hearing a US Civil Engineering assessment from ~20 years ago that said
that something like 90% were deficient in maintenance. Just goes to
show us that we should have been increasing our gasoline tax rates 3+
decades ago.
Then there is the grid.
The water, sewer systems.
Railroad systems that are still in the stone age.
Airports that are antiquated etc.
Yup. Airports are a major beneficiary of public transportation funds,
which comes down to policy choices.
I've traveled to EU a couple of times and their transportation system is light years ahead of ours.
Just wait until you go to Japan.
In 2023, I had a stint on the Hiroshima - Kyoto “Shinkansen” line. The route is ~350km, in a scheduled 96 minutes which is an average speed of
218kph (137mph) - - BUT -- that’s before accounting for the three (3)
stops en route which take ~2 minutes each. Subtracting those off, its
350km in 90 minutes which means at least an average open country running
speed of 233kph (145mph) including the time spent
accelerating/decelerating for those three station stops en route.
Tariffs that, say, started at just 5% and escalated
by 5% per year ... that'd still get it done yet do
less shock damage.
Some, perhaps most, EU makers just CAN'T build US
factories for their little items. Rolls Royce sure
as hell ain't - but if you can buy a Rolls then
you don't care.
Yesterdays rip-off situation for the USA was ugly,
but today's 'fixes' are gonna be ugly too. Guess
things are just like that sometimes ...
Why should people blame President Trump for tariffs that have
barely affected anyone yet?
Because Markets are forward-looking. One doesn't make investments
because last year's returns are good, because one doesn't reap last
year's returns: the investments are for *future* returns.
The market has been over valued for a long time.
Maybe things will return to normal?
The post-2008 period of extremely low interest rates resulted in a big
chunk of "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) investment in the Market,
which drove up evaluations (even before deliberate manipulation).
The more recent rate hikes have helped to normalized some of this
behavior, but its probably going to take the retirement of a good chunk
of Gen X'ers and having them become less aggressive (greedy? desperate?)
by transitioning to a more traditional Stock:Bond ratio that better
aligns with the traditional "Rule of 100" (which would put them at a 40%
Stock allocation by age 60).
Personally I think there is a lot of hi jinx going on behind the scenes
that manipulate the market.
The rich always get richer.
Just one of my conspiracy theories.
It is a correct one. A friend who's done some statistical dabbling in
this area with a DIY daytrader program has opined that ~30% of prices
are from manipulation ... this was because their app is sophisticated
enough to be able to detect the program trading logic of large market participants. He's not made a lot of money from it yet (just ~$80K)
because he's not been able to refine it down to only predicting just one
day in advance instead of 2-3 days in advance.
-hh
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