Europeans Love Green Policies—Until the Bill Comes Due
By David Luhnow and Bojan Pancevski, Sept. 22, 2023, WSJ
“The risk here for those of us who care about reaching net zero by 2050 is if we continue down this path, we risk losing the consent of the British people,” Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said, arguing that politicians hadn’t been honest with working
families about the costs.

Germany, run by a coalition that includes the Green Party, also recently watered down its plans to ban new gas heaters for homes after a backlash from homeowners and opposition politicians. Poland’s government, facing October elections, is suing the
European Union over some aspects of its climate targets, including a 2035 ban on the sale of new petrol cars.

In the Netherlands, a pro-farmers political party that emerged out of protests against the government’s plans to limit nitrogen emissions won the highest share of seats in regional elections earlier this year. The surprise victory cast a spotlight on a
movement that has pushed back against European and Dutch environmental policies.

The vast majority of Europeans believe that climate change is an urgent priority, with 88% saying they back the EU goal of no net carbon emissions by 2050, according to a recent survey by the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm. In comparison,
69% of Americans favor the U.S. taking steps to become carbon neutral by the same date, according to Pew Research.

Europeans are also far less skeptical on climate change overall. In the U.K., for instance, a YouGov poll found only about 10% of the population say climate change isn’t happening or is due mostly to nonhuman factors, compared with between a third and
half of Americans, according to separate surveys by Pew and the University of Chicago. And Europe is making progress on cutting back its carbon use: Electricity generated by wind and solar power has now eclipsed fossil fuels for the first time.

But in both the U.S. and Europe, voters can become far more wary when climate policy starts to involve painful trade-offs, especially when it comes to homes or cars. France’s yellow vests or gilets jaunes protest movement of 2018-19 began when the
government tried to raise taxes on diesel and petrol to aid the country’s transition to green energy. The government quickly backtracked.

France is a case in point. The French consider climate change a major concern, public polls show. But they also take a dim view of some of the major policy changes that the EU has implemented to cut emissions. An Ifop poll from June found that 65%
thought the 2035 ban on the sale of cars with combustion engines wouldn’t effectively address climate change. More than half of the public says that about banning gas heaters.

Paris regional officials were forced to retreat this year from a plan to ban broad categories of older, more polluting vehicles from the French capital. Officials said commuters weren’t ready for the dramatic change. The implementation dates have been
pushed back to June 2025 and beyond.

In August, London’s mayor sparked an outcry by expanding the city’s ultra-low emission zone to surrounding suburbs, imposing a daily charge of 12 pounds and 50 pence, equivalent to about $15, on the most polluting vehicles. Surveys showed the move
was deeply unpopular in the suburbs, where people rely more on their cars than in central London.

Months earlier, the ruling Conservative Party unexpectedly won a special election for a West London seat in Parliament by making the ULEZ expansion plans a centerpiece of the campaign, accusing London’s mayor of waging a “war on cars.” That win has
convinced Sunak and his aides that there is political mileage in targeting these issues, said Matthew Goodwin, a conservative pollster at the University of Kent.

“I would view this in the context of some of the debates in the U.S., where we’ve seen some working-class voters be much more receptive to pushing back against these policies, the yellow vests in France, the Dutch farmers protests,” he said. “I
think energy and green issues are becoming more central to some of these populist rebellions than they used to be.”

Some EU officials have acknowledged the pushback. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last month that the bloc’s climate policies remain a high priority. But she added that implementing them would require “an even more intensive
dialogue with industry, key stakeholders like forest owners, farmers, as well as citizens.”

In Germany, the far-right opposition party Alternative for Germany has been soaring in the polls to reach 21%, partly fueled by popular discontent with government policies including immigration and those linked to climate action. The AfD is dismissive of
the Green transformation agenda and skeptical about efforts to tackle human-caused climate change.

The German government’s green agenda has been hampered by a popular backlash against some policies that critics have deemed too abrupt and too intrusive. Particularly controversial was a planned ban on installing new gas heaters, drafted by the Green
Party and originally intended to be implemented in January next year. But the government postponed the rollout after the news of the draft bill triggered the ire of some media and many voters, according to several pollsters. Opposition parties accused
the ruling coalition of being driven by ideology instead of pragmatism.

“The government has turned business and citizens against itself by making policy with a crowbar,” said Jens Spahn, the deputy floor leader of the opposition conservatives. “We need a debate about the most efficient way to get there, a competition
of good ideas, and that can only take place as a project shared between businesses, citizens and politicians.”

Leading politicians involved in the government’s green agenda have admitted that they were wrong to rush policies before obtaining a popular buy-in.

“We made mistakes, and the biggest one was the way we communicated the policies and the speed of it all—it was like climate policy suddenly breaking into people’s households,” a senior coalition politician said.

Despite the continuous commitment to climate policy by consecutive governments, Germany is regularly missing its climate targets, largely because of its decision to shut down nuclear generation and rely on burning dirty coal as a transitional technology.

The U.K., in contrast, has been hitting its climate goals and has sharply reduced carbon emissions, partly thanks to pioneering alternative energy sources such as offshore wind farms. The decision to delay the ban on selling new gasoline-powered cars—
which was five years ahead of the EU plans—caused controversy.

Ford Motor sharply criticized the move, saying the company and industry were investing billions in making their cars fully electric. “Our business needs three things from the U.K. government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030
would undermine all three,” Ford U.K. chair Lisa Brankin said. Jaguar Land Rover, however, backed the move as “pragmatic” and in line with other major car markets such as the EU.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europeans-love-green-policiesuntil-the-bill-comes-due-8a9ef662

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