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In the month after Trump won the last US election, people living in
states that voted more for Clinton had an increase in poor mental
health, while those in Pro-Trump states did not, according to US
research. The study found that in pro-Clinton states, the average
number of days on which adults reported experiencing poor mental
health in the last 30 days increased by half a day, from 3.35 days
in October to 3.85 days in December 2016. The authors say this half
a day per adult translated into 54.6 million more days of poor
mental health in December 2016 alone for the 109.2 million adults
living in Clinton-voting states.



https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-06328-6


Media release
Outcome of 2016 US election associated with poorer mental health in
Clinton voters

There were 54.6 million more days of poor mental health among adults
in states that voted for Hillary Clinton in December 2016, compared
to October 2016, according to a study published in the Journal of
General Internal Medicine. No such increase in poor mental health
following the 2016 US election was observed in states that voted for
Donald Trump. The increase in average number of poor mental health
days per person in Clinton-voting states largely persisted in the
six months after the election.

Comparing states in which Trump had received the most votes with
states in which Clinton had received the most votes, a team of
researchers from the University of California, San Francisco, USA,
and Duke University, Durham, NC, USA found that in Clinton-voting
states, the average number of days on which adults reported
experiencing poor mental health in the last 30 days increased by
0.50 days, from 3.35 days in October to 3.85 days in December 2016.


The rise in poor mental health days in Clinton-voting states in
December 2016 was primarily observed in adults aged 65 and older,
women, and white individuals. No changes in poor mental health days
were statistically detected among younger age groups, men, or racial
and ethnic minority groups in December 2016 in either Clinton- or
Trump-voting states.

In states that voted for Clinton, the authors also observed a 2
percentage point increase in the number of people who reported at
least 14 days of poor mental health in the last 30 days in December
2016, compared to October 2016, while no such rise was observed in
Trump-voting states.


The authors analyzed data on 499,201 adults collected in 2016 and
2017 as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a
joint state and federal annual household survey. By comparing each
monthly cohort of survey respondents, they studied changes in three
mental health indicators – total days of poor mental health in the
last 30 days, 14 days or more of poor mental health in the last 30
days and being diagnosed with a depressive disorder – in Clinton-
and Trump-voting states in the six months following the November
2016 election, compared to the six months before the election.

The authors also found that a 10-percentage point higher margin of
victory for Trump in the state was associated with 0.41 fewer days
of poor mental health in Trump-voting states. The inverse is also
statistically true. In Clinton-states, a 10-percentage point higher
margin of victory for Clinton in the state predicted 0.41 more days
of poor mental health.

Overall, the findings suggest that the outcome of the 2016 election
had a negative impact on mental health for voters of the candidate
that lost the election.


The authors caution that the cross-sectional observational nature of
the study does not allow for conclusions about cause and effect.
Because the respondents’ candidate preference and party affiliation
were unknown, the authors relied on the candidate’s margin of
victory or loss in a state to assess which candidate’s voters
experienced changes in mental health.


-ENDS-

Attachments:

Research
Springer NatureWeb page
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