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  • China's consumption lost due to lock down: A back of envelop calculatio

    From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 13 06:11:42 2022
    Economist.om article Headline:
    "It will take time for China’s consumers to recover from lockdown"
    Subline:
    "Some lost consumption will be lost forever"

    https://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/09/it-will-take-time-for-chinas-consumers-to-recover-from-lockdown

    The Economist article meant to calculate China's economic lost due to its dynamic zero Covid policy.

    Actually, the simplest method is using the method of "year of life lost" adjusted by an economic activity factor.

    According to the following Nature.com article using global data as of Jan 26 2021, total year of life lost based on 1,279,866 excessive deaths amount to 20.5 million years. Or 16 years of life for every death. That is 20.5 million years of personal
    consumption was lost forever.

    What if a city such as Shanghai has a population of 16 million was locked down for three months?

    Applying the same year of life lost to people killed: IF all the residents were temporarily dead for 3 months, the total year of life lost would be about 64 million years. (16*16/4=64)

    Of course, the people were not dead and they had to consume to remain alive. Consumption of food, fluid including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage, energy, as well as regulate health maintenance either provided to them freely or at a price is still
    ongoing. In contrast, traveling and eating out and impulse purchase would be zero. But they could still order whatever they want through the internet.

    IF I were a Shanghai resident during the lock down, lost consumption would be less than 3% of normal consumption. Others could be higher.

    IF we assume 10% on the average, total lost consumption was equivalent to 6.4 million years of life. On the positive side, of course, is the number of lives not killed and/or degraded by COVID virus in Shanghai as well as other parts of China.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 13 06:13:57 2022
    On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:11:44 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
    Economist.om article Headline:
    "It will take time for China’s consumers to recover from lockdown" Subline:
    "Some lost consumption will be lost forever"

    https://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/09/it-will-take-time-for-chinas-consumers-to-recover-from-lockdown

    The Economist article meant to calculate China's economic lost due to its dynamic zero Covid policy.

    Actually, the simplest method is using the method of "year of life lost" adjusted by an economic activity factor.

    According to the following Nature.com article

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3

    using global data as of Jan 26 2021, total year of life lost based on 1,279,866 excessive deaths amount to 20.5 million years. Or 16 years of life for every death. That is 20.5 million years of personal consumption was lost forever.

    What if a city such as Shanghai has a population of 16 million was locked down for three months?

    Applying the same year of life lost to people killed: IF all the residents were temporarily dead for 3 months, the total year of life lost would be about 64 million years. (16*16/4=64)

    Of course, the people were not dead and they had to consume to remain alive. Consumption of food, fluid including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage, energy, as well as regulate health maintenance either provided to them freely or at a price is still
    ongoing. In contrast, traveling and eating out and impulse purchase would be zero. But they could still order whatever they want through the internet.

    IF I were a Shanghai resident during the lock down, lost consumption would be less than 3% of normal consumption. Others could be higher.

    IF we assume 10% on the average, total lost consumption was equivalent to 6.4 million years of life. On the positive side, of course, is the number of lives not killed and/or degraded by COVID virus in Shanghai as well as other parts of China.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 13 06:34:42 2022
    Economist.com has an article trying to figure out China's lost consumption due to its zero-Covid policy.

    ttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/09/it-will-take-time-for-chinas-consumers-to-recover-from-lockdown

    I think a "years of life lost" would be more straight forward.

    According to the following Nature.com article, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3
    About 16 years of life were lost for every death.

    Shanghai with a population 16 million was locked down for 3 months. IF all Shanghai residents were temporarily death, the total of 4 million years of life would be lost to consumption.

    But of course, they were not dead while locked down. They still have to consume food, liquid including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage, energy and regular health maintenance and other services delivered online. Of course, they could still order what
    they want to buy online.

    IF we assume they on the average reduced consumption by 10%, the total years of life lost to consumption would be 0.4 million years. On the positive side, their lost consumption save millions from sickness and death in other Shanghai residents and all
    over China.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From stoney@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jun 14 02:58:11 2022
    On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:34:43 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
    Economist.com has an article trying to figure out China's lost consumption due to its zero-Covid policy.

    ttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/09/it-will-take-time-for-chinas-consumers-to-recover-from-lockdown

    I think a "years of life lost" would be more straight forward.

    According to the following Nature.com article, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3
    About 16 years of life were lost for every death.

    Shanghai with a population 16 million was locked down for 3 months. IF all Shanghai residents were temporarily death, the total of 4 million years of life would be lost to consumption.

    But of course, they were not dead while locked down. They still have to consume food, liquid including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage, energy and regular health maintenance and other services delivered online. Of course, they could still order
    what they want to buy online.

    IF we assume they on the average reduced consumption by 10%, the total years of life lost to consumption would be 0.4 million years. On the positive side, their lost consumption save millions from sickness and death in other Shanghai residents and all
    over China.

    Yes, "years of life lost" is more accurate would be more straight forward. The person's life is shortened because sickness and death killed them.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)