"Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine
Robert Kagan
If Ukraine falls, it will be hard to spin as anything but a debacle for
the United States, and for its president.
Vice-president Elect J. D. Vance once said that he doesn’t care what
happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out whether the American people
share his indifference, because if there is not soon a large new
infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war
within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice,
negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent
Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security
guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty,
and full Russian control.
This poses an immediate problem for Donald Trump. He promised to settle
the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves
Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to
strike a damaging blow at American global power. Trump must now choose
between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately redoubling American support for Ukraine while there’s still
time. The choice he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only
the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency."
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/01/trump-putin-ukraine-russia-war/681228/
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