"New York CNN — In the days leading up to the US election, pollsters
had the race deadlocked. The vote was essentially a coin flip.
But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more
solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. On Monday, Trump led
Vice President Kamala Harris 58% to 42% — a lead that, by Wednesday
morning, proved to be a much more accurate reflection of reality.
..
Historically, betting markets have been pretty good at predicting the
outcome of US elections. One study showed that in the 15 elections
between 1884 and 1940 the candidate with the best odds as of mid-October
won 11 times. (The same study notes that election betting fell out of
favor after 1940, as scientific polling grew more sophisticated and
reliable.)
..
Still, I asked Zitzewitz what a market can tell me that, say, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average can’t.
Essentially, he told me, FiveThirtyEight reflects one person’s approach
to turning data into a probability. Markets are looking at the same
polls, and turning everyone’s interpretations into a probability.
“What you’re seeing with the market is some average of all of those different opinions, weighted by their willingness to put their money
where their mouth is.” "
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/business/polymarket-election-trump-nightcap/index.html
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