XPost: za.politics, za.misc, talk.politics.misc

The African National Congress (ANC) party has lost its parliamentary
majority in a historic election result that puts South Africa on a new political path for the first time since the end of the apartheid
system of white minority rule 30 years ago.

With more than 99 percent of votes counted on Saturday, the
once-dominant ANC had received nearly 40 percent in Wednesday’s
election, well short of the majority it had held since the famed
all-race vote of 1994 that ended apartheid and brought it to power
under Nelson Mandela.

The main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), had 21.63
percent and uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a new party led by former
president and ANC leader Jacob Zuma, managed to grab 14.71 percent –
pulling away votes from the ANC.

Opposition parties have hailed the result as a momentous breakthrough
for a country struggling with deep poverty and inequality, but the ANC
remained the biggest party by some way.

“The way to rescue South Africa is to break the ANC’s majority and we
have done that,” said main opposition leader John Steenhuisen.

The final results are still to be formally declared by the independent Electoral Commission that ran the election, but the ANC cannot pass 50
percent.

Reporting from the Results Operation Centre in Midrand, South Africa,
Al Jazeera’s Mike Hanna said the ANC will try to find a way to form a
new government.

“It [ANC] has to find a partner in order to be able to govern.
Otherwise it could try to form a minority government which could make
it very difficult to pass any form of legislation or advance ANC
policy,” he said.

Political parties’ shares of the vote determine their seats in the country’s National Assembly, which elects the nation’s president.

President Cyril Ramaphosa can in theory still keep his job, as the
former liberation movement was on course to get about twice as many
votes as the next party. But he will be weakened and could face calls
to quit both from opposition parties and critics in the deeply divided
ANC.

On Friday, however, a top ANC official backed him to stay on as party
leader, and analysts say he has no obvious successor.

A deal to keep the ANC in the presidency could involve opposition
backing in exchange either for cabinet posts or for more control of
parliament, perhaps even the speaker.

The election commission has pencilled in a final results announcement
for Sunday.

<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/1/south-africa-anc-loses-30-year-parliamentary-majority-after-election>
--
Steve Hayes
http://www.khanya.org.za/stevesig.htm
http://khanya.wordpress.com

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XPost: za.politics, za.misc, talk.politics.misc

So, how long before the multi-way civil war ?

The ANC seemed to be the "glue" holding everything
together.

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XPost: za.politics, za.misc, talk.politics.misc

On 6/3/24 2:32 AM, Steve Hayes wrote:

On Sun, 2 Jun 2024 20:54:48 -0400, "26xh.0717" <[email protected]>
wrote:

So, how long before the multi-way civil war ?

The ANC seemed to be the "glue" holding everything
together.

If there is a civil war, it's likely to be MK against the rest.

MK is new, but comprises mainly fans of Jacob Zuma, the Expresident
who seems to bear an uncanny resemblance to US expresident Donald
Trump. When Zuma was jailed his fans rioted, and Trump has been
threatening that if he is jailed, his fans will do the same.

The MK seems to be supported mainly by ethno-nationalists, and is
pretty ight-wing. They want to abrogate the constitution, which would
have pretty much the same effect as Hitler's Enabling Act.

They only have 15% of the vote in this election, but there are other far-right parties as well, like the Patriotic Alliance, so the
sentiment could be growing. Zuma and Trump seem to be racing neck and
neck to the same destination.

First off, "far left" is as bad as "far right", so
don't carry biases TOO far hmm.

The ANC really does seem to have been the "glue",
a carry-over from the old days. Now, not so much.
What's the old thing about when the center cannot
hold ?

SA is mostly like many mini-nations in one. Everyone
has their own, personalized, ideal about how things
ought to be. Loyalties tend to be towards ethnic/
tribe rather than for The Country. This is how it
looks from the outside.

The USA dealt with this immediately - and quite
effectively. SA ... not so much. More diversity,
more problems. Add ultra-whatever people and it
becomes worse, fast. They all want to roll the
dice in hopes of coming up in a better position.
How many DIE in that ... rarely a consideration.

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XPost: za.politics, za.misc, talk.politics.misc

On Sun, 2 Jun 2024 20:54:48 -0400, "26xh.0717" <[email protected]>
wrote:

So, how long before the multi-way civil war ?

The ANC seemed to be the "glue" holding everything
together.

If there is a civil war, it's likely to be MK against the rest.

MK is new, but comprises mainly fans of Jacob Zuma, the Expresident
who seems to bear an uncanny resemblance to US expresident Donald
Trump. When Zuma was jailed his fans rioted, and Trump has been
threatening that if he is jailed, his fans will do the same.

The MK seems to be supported mainly by ethno-nationalists, and is
pretty ight-wing. They want to abrogate the constitution, which would
have pretty much the same effect as Hitler's Enabling Act.

They only have 15% of the vote in this election, but there are other
far-right parties as well, like the Patriotic Alliance, so the
sentiment could be growing. Zuma and Trump seem to be racing neck and
neck to the same destination.


--
Steve Hayes from Tshwane, South Africa
Web: http://www.khanya.org.za/stevesig.htm
Blog: http://khanya.wordpress.com
E-mail - see web page, or parse: shayes at dunelm full stop org full stop uk

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XPost: za.politics, za.misc, talk.politics.misc

On Mon, 3 Jun 2024 03:10:58 -0400, "26xh.0717" <[email protected]>
wrote:

On 6/3/24 2:32 AM, Steve Hayes wrote:

If there is a civil war, it's likely to be MK against the rest.

MK is new, but comprises mainly fans of Jacob Zuma, the Expresident
who seems to bear an uncanny resemblance to US expresident Donald
Trump. When Zuma was jailed his fans rioted, and Trump has been
threatening that if he is jailed, his fans will do the same.

The MK seems to be supported mainly by ethno-nationalists, and is
pretty ight-wing. They want to abrogate the constitution, which would
have pretty much the same effect as Hitler's Enabling Act.

They only have 15% of the vote in this election, but there are other
far-right parties as well, like the Patriotic Alliance, so the
sentiment could be growing. Zuma and Trump seem to be racing neck and
neck to the same destination.

First off, "far left" is as bad as "far right", so
don't carry biases TOO far hmm.

The ANC really does seem to have been the "glue",
a carry-over from the old days. Now, not so much.
What's the old thing about when the center cannot
hold ?

The ANC retains support in its heatland, the Eastern Cape Province. It
was indeed a kind of glue, since it was seen as the party of
liberation, but the leaders who played a part in that liberation are
mostly dead or retired, and the majority of voters are too young to
have had any experience of what we were liberated from.

The ANC was also, during the Zuma years, hijacked by political
entrepreneurs who got into politics mainly because of the business opportunities that might come their way, and they became known as "tenderpreneurs". My own hope is that most of those have hived off
into the new MK party, and if that is the case, it could purify the
ANC f its worst elements.

SA is mostly like many mini-nations in one. Everyone
has their own, personalized, ideal about how things
ought to be. Loyalties tend to be towards ethnic/
tribe rather than for The Country. This is how it
looks from the outside.

The USA dealt with this immediately - and quite
effectively. SA ... not so much. More diversity,
more problems. Add ultra-whatever people and it
becomes worse, fast. They all want to roll the
dice in hopes of coming up in a better position.
How many DIE in that ... rarely a consideration.

To outsiders the US seems like two warring tribes who sublimate their
desire to kill each other by killing people in other countries far
away. And Trump, like Zuma, has a special skill in playing that tribal
feeling, of detibalised people who long to be members of a tribe.


--
Steve Hayes
http://www.khanya.org.za/stevesig.htm
http://khanya.wordpress.com

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XPost: za.politics, za.misc, talk.politics.misc

On 6/4/24 1:12 AM, Steve Hayes wrote:

On Mon, 3 Jun 2024 03:10:58 -0400, "26xh.0717" <[email protected]>
wrote:

On 6/3/24 2:32 AM, Steve Hayes wrote:

If there is a civil war, it's likely to be MK against the rest.

MK is new, but comprises mainly fans of Jacob Zuma, the Expresident
who seems to bear an uncanny resemblance to US expresident Donald
Trump. When Zuma was jailed his fans rioted, and Trump has been
threatening that if he is jailed, his fans will do the same.

The MK seems to be supported mainly by ethno-nationalists, and is
pretty ight-wing. They want to abrogate the constitution, which would
have pretty much the same effect as Hitler's Enabling Act.

They only have 15% of the vote in this election, but there are other
far-right parties as well, like the Patriotic Alliance, so the
sentiment could be growing. Zuma and Trump seem to be racing neck and
neck to the same destination.

First off, "far left" is as bad as "far right", so
don't carry biases TOO far hmm.

The ANC really does seem to have been the "glue",
a carry-over from the old days. Now, not so much.
What's the old thing about when the center cannot
hold ?

The ANC retains support in its heatland, the Eastern Cape Province. It
was indeed a kind of glue, since it was seen as the party of
liberation, but the leaders who played a part in that liberation are
mostly dead or retired, and the majority of voters are too young to
have had any experience of what we were liberated from.

The ANC was also, during the Zuma years, hijacked by political
entrepreneurs who got into politics mainly because of the business opportunities that might come their way, and they became known as "tenderpreneurs". My own hope is that most of those have hived off
into the new MK party, and if that is the case, it could purify the
ANC f its worst elements.

Review history and you will find that ALL govts/parties
quickly become corrupted. When Thomas Jefferson became
our (3rd) president he was SHOCKED to see what had become
of his 'perfect' scheme for government ... every pol out
for themselves with money passing under every table.

All that's possible is to arrange the structure of govt
so the larger-scale INFLUENCE of such corruption never
goes very far.

SA has great mineral wealth and a fair amount of
tech/industrial capacity. It SHOULD do quite well,
head and shoulders above every other govt on the
continent. But IS it ?

SA is mostly like many mini-nations in one. Everyone
has their own, personalized, ideal about how things
ought to be. Loyalties tend to be towards ethnic/
tribe rather than for The Country. This is how it
looks from the outside.

The USA dealt with this immediately - and quite
effectively. SA ... not so much. More diversity,
more problems. Add ultra-whatever people and it
becomes worse, fast. They all want to roll the
dice in hopes of coming up in a better position.
How many DIE in that ... rarely a consideration.

To outsiders the US seems like two warring tribes who sublimate their
desire to kill each other by killing people in other countries far
away. And Trump, like Zuma, has a special skill in playing that tribal feeling, of detibalised people who long to be members of a tribe.

Ummmm ... don't know what hype-happy Media you're
watching but the USA is one of the most politically
BORING countries in the world. "Partisan violence"
is almost unknown. Lefties and Righties work together
for their paychecks.

No Commie/Fascist/Anarchist gangs battling nightly in
the streets with bodies stacked-up like cordwood. No
weekly bombings/assassinations like in Northern Ireland.
Even Islamist violence is extremely rare - unlike in
Germany/France/Sweden. When the handful of NAZIs march
in the street everyone makes fun of them. Our only
problem is DRUG GANGS, who have no 'politics' at all.

As for overseas influence, well, we ARE looking after
our business interests and our allies ... just like
everybody. We're just a bit larger than most.

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