XPost: sci.space.policy

JF Mezei <[email protected]> wrote:

On 2018-02-13 20:20, Fred J. McCall wrote:

SpaceX is affected to the extent that resupply and crew missions would
go away. BFR is probably largely unaffected, though, since it
probably would just barely be into that business and once it is,
development spending is largely complete.

In all of the fancy powepoints, SpaceX has its BFR attacxhed at the
station (where PMA2 is, so docked).

Yes. Go read what I wrote again.

If SoaceX intends to retire Falcon 9, then one would expect BFR to
replace its duties to bring cargo/crews to/from station.

Correct. Go read what I wrote again.

Loss of station about the time BFR gets functional removes a commercial >customer for its crewed version. And also removes the need to develop
docking software for the station.

There is no "docking software for the station". BFR knows how to do
to things (including ISS). So "extra special" development is
required. As for the rest, go read what I wrote again. The primary
purpose of BFR is ***NOT*** to dither around ISS. Yes, shutting down
ISS costs you some missions, but it costs you some missions regardless
of what you planned on flying them with.

Why would 'commercial crew' be forced to split? Do you know what
'commercial' means?

If you hjave 10 years with of crew rotation split between 2 companies,
each company has a fair number of paind launches. But if you now have
only 5 year worth of crew transport, can 2 companies cost justify the >development costs for manned capsules?

Uh, you understand they're being paid for that development as part of
a separate program, right? Recovery of costs is generally not reliant
on number of flights to ISS.

With SpaceX ahead, wouldn't it make sense for Boeing to kills it CST
program since the number of launches it could expect to make before the >station is shut wouldn pay back the investment in CST and whatever
rocket gets man-rated to launch it ?

As long as NASA is paying Boeing to develop CST, they will continue to
develop CST even if it never flies at all outside the development
program.


--
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable
man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore,
all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
--George Bernard Shaw

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