Since it is looking reasonably likely that the Federal Reserve is going
to cut the prime interest rate later this week, I was reminded of a rant
that was made by RSG's Tom Seim way back in November 2022 on this topic:
<
https://groups.google.com/g/rec.sport.golf/c/_1pDlBNKtJk/m/DuyPAcdUAAAJ>
Note that the stock market is based on what will happen
in the FUTURE, not current conditions, so the market
will turn around BEFORE the economy does.
Except for Black Swans/etc, of course. But your attempted
point was already acknowledged above, “… under downward
pressure so long as the Fed is raising interest rates.”,
as this was why I flatly asked you:
“So then: are you claiming that Fed rate hikes are already over?”
And of course you were silent on that question. How brave of you.
The dilemma you have is that just which hike is the “last” rate
hike often isn’t known when it happens, but is decided some
time thereafter retrospectively. That’s why investor opinions
vary on if market inflection should be expected at {0, 3, 4, 6,
etc} months prior to said “last”. Of course, there’s also
strategies on how to address this uncertainty factor too…
…that is, if one listens to someone who actually is a
multimillionaire, instead of someone who just claims to be
one on the internet. /s
Well, since that was posted, the Fed continued to raise interest rates,
which kept on resetting that {N Months later} clock:
Dec 14, 2022 +50 4.25% to 4.50%
Feb 1, 2023 +25 4.50% to 4.75%
March 22, 2023 +25 4.75% to 5.00%
May 3, 2023 +25 5.00% to 5.25%
July 26, 2023 +25 5.25% to 5.50%
Presently, that 7/2023 date from 13 months ago is the "last hike" for
starting to look at when market/economic conditions improved. In
looking at the inflation data, August was +2.5% YoY for 8/23-8/24:
<
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2024-.html>
Similarly, looking at the Market, the DJIA was ~35,000 at the end of
July 2023. It bottomed to 32.4K briefly in late Oct 2023, and climbed
since, so July-Oct = 3 months was the delay to "market bottom" for this particular time around.
If one missed that brief ~3 week bottom, then the lowest buyback in
would have been at 33K or higher. By 4 months after last hike, the
entire post-hike dip is gone, giving more credence to a "do nothing" Buy
& Hold strategy instead of scrambling to try to time the Market.
At 6 & 9 months after the last hike, the DOW was at 38K & 39K, which is
very roughly up +11%. If one got lucky in perfectly timing the bottom,
its arguably a +20% upturn, but no one has claimed to have done that.
A full year after the last hike, DOW was ~40K which is +14% and today,
it at 41.6K, so a bit more.
Overall, the potential between the work (& luck) of perfectly timing the
bottom versus a "do nothing" buy & hold is a maximum difference of just
9%, which per $100K invested is just $9K ($123,456 vs $114,285 = $9171).
For a fictional "multi-millionaire", that $9K is a maximum change in net
worth of just 0.45% (yes, less than a half of one percentage point).
-hh
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