Sawfish <
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Gooble, gobble, Fellow-Sufferers!There's a lot of debate about the effectiveness of the air strikes on the Iran nuclear development sites, everything from Trump's expected and highly optimistic exaggerations, to assessments that it only set the program
back by a number of months, to Medvedev (not the player, the ex-prez of Russia--Putin's mook) immediately opining that it didn't do a damned thing, stopping just short of implying that it actually *helped* the program.So,like everything else, we've got
to assess it ourselves.First, I doubt that the bombs "completely and totally" destroyed the bunkers. The weapons are relatively untested, and lacking any past history of success, I'd not accept major destruction without objective proof.But I also doubt
that the bunkers, and the equipment in them, are unscathed. I'd then guess that they are compromised somewhat, but still usable after unspecified repairs.And pretty much all involved, Trump, the Israelis, the Iranians, know this--with the Iranians having
the most detailed info, of course.So in terms of Iran, Israel, and the rest of the world, what did this accomplish?First and foremost, it looks like this mission--which was complex and costly--went as planned. No Mogadishu or bungled hostage rescue here.
Closer to the Bin Lauden mission.Now this serves public notice that the US can, and will, use advanced military technology, with short notice--against anyone who cannot deter the US in some effective fashion--and shooting a missile barrage, apparently
with advanced warning--at a remote US military base is purely performative.It has shown the Israelis that yep, Trump *will* back their play on nukes, at the minimum, and possibly on other threatening issues. The rest of the world--including the Muslim
world--notes this unambiguously.Now Trump did a mean sort of trick: he said he'd put off a decision on striking Iran for two weeks and then--BAMMO!--bombed them 3 days later. You'll note that he very commonly appears to buy time by delaying, but this
time--in spite of following the same apparent formula--he did not.This underscores his unpredictability--which he has on many occasions announced that this is what he wants *everyone* to understand about him.So basically, whether or not the strike did
much material damage, it did sorta pimp-slap everyone into paying attention to the US when it barks. And that, of course, strengths the US' hand in all future situations. That is likely the biggest accomplishment of the mission--unless, of course, they
really did "completely and totally" the Iranian nuclear program.What say you, RST-ers?
Nobody knows for certain so very difficult to comment.
Real stuff very often stay hidden, much to my disbelief. E.g. I could never understand from present day perspective that Hruščov (Khrushchev) and USSR were ok with leaving Cuba and letting world to think they caved in?
When in fact USA removed their missiles from Turkey as well, as part of the deal, which is what started the whole thing, it's the Turkish missile crisis for real. And US had to promise not to invade Cuba
So basically USSR won yet in public they lost.
As you see, Soviets were so disinterested in PR battles, they were pleased to achieve their goals and couldn't care less about PR.
But the world thought Kennedy was tougher than Khrushchev, no? USA won this public battle and consequently, I'm sure some future ones.
So hete it could be lots of things, and behind the scenes, or really could be nothing.
My guess is this.
Quite certain:
Trump told them to remove uranium and personnel and he bombed facilities. In return they notified him of their "saving the honour" missiles on US base in Qatar. Positives from such news for himself and America are clear as you said. He's a macho man now.
He bombs but doesn't start wars.
As for reality, he had to notify them or made some deal. Nobody would bomb nuclear site for real, no?
If it's all fake, or partially fake, it suggests one thing. The whole thing isn't as Jewish as we feared. Either Trump is free from Jews (unlikely) or Israel got bitch slapped by Iranian missiles much more than we saw.
So in that case the fake or staged destruction of Iranian compound allows Israel to save their face and win too. So they got rid of Iranian nuclear program on paper and can stop now.
If it's a real destruction, then:
Uranium was either sent to Russia or china and the deal includes Russia/China which then includes guarantees for Iran too.
Uranium was moved elsewhere in Iran. In that case I don't think there's a deal at all. Certainly no security guarantees.
The thing is, Iran is not likely to allow any inspections, or foreigners, from now on, they were humiliated how much spied on they were and how many scientists and generals and their families and neighbours Israel managed to kill.
They're really weak in that regard even if they're strong in some other areas.
And if they don't allow inspections it will all start again.
We'll know when we (don't) see the regime change.
If no regime change, then Iran either has nukes or has no nukes but has powerful (and secret) guarantees from Russia/China.
So much is unknown that it's not really fun to discuss.
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