• Re: OT: So why did Trump win?

    From Scall5@21:1/5 to Sawfish on Fri Nov 15 14:45:29 2024
    On 11/15/2024 12:56 PM, Sawfish wrote:
    I've thought about this for a while, and I think it might be best to
    list reasons that have been used to explain the result that did not
    really have much effect.

    First and foremost, I do not think that the current US economy is in any traditional sense "bad". Unemployment--maybe the most threatening
    negative factor for the bulk of the electorate--is well below any level historically worrisome level. It has actually been quite tame for at
    least 2 years, with hiring bonuses fairly common for in-demand work.

    It's true that there was a sharp spike in inflation, and that the
    current generations voting have never really seen anything like late 70s/early 80's inflation--which this most assuredly was *not*--and it disoriented and frightened them somewhat, but again, they still had
    their jobs. It was not "stagflation"--which truly *is* scary, and which *will* get a sitting candidate thrown out of office.

    Interest rates were raised to combat inflation (which largely worked as planned), but a negative side effect was that it made housing less
    affordable almost overnight.

    But really, historically, none of this is enough for an incumbent party
    to lose an election. There would need to be something more.

    So maybe immigration? My guess is that while both the economy and
    largely unvetted immigration did not actually directly affect the common voters' lives, allowing strangers into one's lebensraum has often been perceived as a vague threat. Too, making little official attempt to at
    least identify and categorize immigrants *sounds* sloppy and most would
    view the current immigration regime as vaguely threatening and slipshod.
    A poor job of it...

    But again, this in itself would not be enough to throw out an incumbent.

    So if it wasn't the economy and/or immigration, what *was* the reason
    that Trump beat Harris? Was it a bunch of smaller issues that, taken together, decided enough voters in favor of Trump? If so, what were they?

    Or was it...dare I say it?...a *conspiracy*?   :^)

    Thoughts/comments...

    I think crime rates had a lot to do with it. When people don't feel safe downtown, they want change.
    --
    ---------------
    Scall5

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  • From *skriptis@21:1/5 to Sawfish on Sat Nov 16 08:59:14 2024
    Sawfish <[email protected]> Wrote in message:r
    I've thought about this for a while, and I think it might be best to list reasons that have been used to explain the result that did not really have much effect.First and foremost, I do not think that the current US economy is in any traditional sense "
    bad". Unemployment--maybe the most threatening negative factor for the bulk of the electorate--is well below any level historically worrisome level. It has actually been quite tame for at least 2 years, with hiring bonuses fairly common for in-demand
    work.It's true that there was a sharp spike in inflation, and that the current generations voting have never really seen anything like late 70s/early 80's inflation--which this most assuredly was *not*--and it disoriented and frightened them somewhat,
    but again, they still had their jobs. It was not "stagflation"--which truly *is* scary, and which *will* get a sitting candidate thrown out of office.Interest rates were raised to combat inflation (which largely worked as planned), but a negative side
    effect was that it made housing less affordable almost overnight.But really, historically, none of this is enough for an incumbent party to lose an election. There would need to be something more.So maybe immigration? My guess is that while both the
    economy and largely unvetted immigration did not actually directly affect the common voters' lives, allowing strangers into one's lebensraum has often been perceived as a vague threat. Too, making little official attempt to at least identify and
    categorize immigrants *sounds* sloppy and most would view the current immigration regime as vaguely threatening and slipshod. A poor job of it...But again, this in itself would not be enough to throw out an incumbent.So if it wasn't the economy and/or
    immigration, what *was* the reason that Trump beat Harris? Was it a bunch of smaller issues that, taken together, decided enough voters in favor of Trump? If so, what were they?Or was it...dare I say it?...a *conspiracy*? :^)Thoughts/comments...-- --
    Sawfish~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~"Those are my principles, and if you don't like them...well, I have others."~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~





    If a white woman couldn't, then surely a dark woman of poor morals who only entered race at the very last moment can't beat Trump either.

    A white man could have defeated Trump though.

    Of course, it helps that the elections weren't rigged like the last time.

    Biden's popular vote in 2020 vs other candidates from both past and future elections stands out kinda like Nadal's FO record.

    It's comically rigged.



    This time, Jews, who control USA, allowed for relatively free election because they're desperate.

    We know that Jews control or try to control both sides of the political spectrum in order to control the overton window.


    At the moment they have problems with the democrats and their base, made up of dark people who are sensitive to Palestine genocide. Democrat base in the US is still not fully globalised and atomised, it's still people with their identity. They hate
    whites, but they're still aware of the Jews and are not susceptible to holohoax stuff like the white people.


    Due to that, it's easier for Israel to slaughter Arabs if the nominally right wing (white people's) party is in charge in America because such government won't feel pressure from its base.


    Mind you, Trump is still not ideal for them, they'd rather have some truly evil "neocon" people like Bush or Romney but Trump showed he was willing to give them many concessions, he made pact with them. He made a deal.

    You notice that with the impeachment hoax, Russia hoax, those Jewish hoaxes are silent now.



    Personally I feel Trump will care much more about individual Arab lives, can't think of anyone in America who is more humane than Trump, he will stop the genocide, but will otoh much more brutally crush the collective rights of Palestinians as the people,
    and will deny them any meaningful statehood, and they can forget freedom from Israeli occupation.

    Basically he will end or try to end this 6 decades occupation and tragedy by formally ending Palestine as a state.


    Remember Israel is Jewish ethno-state with DNA tests for citizenship.

    And such Israel is already 25% Arab or so. Officially. Those Arabs have their passports.

    Israel can't formally annex Palestine because then they will have to give citizenship to all Palestinians in Palestine and this would make Israel 50-50 Jewish and Arab.


    So they're doing this 57 year occupation and treating Palestineans the same way US treated redskins. They can do whatever they want to them, kill them, destroy their homes, resettle them, you name it.

    Jews already stole the land they've created Israel on, but the entire time, they wanted the rest of it, all of the region.




    The goal for Israel is to annex Palestine and still keep ethnic majority in the expanded Israel. They just have couple of millions of people that stand in their way.


    So in most radical scenario I envision Trump committing ethnic cleansing of parts of Palestinians and resettling them in some newly build cities in Saudi Arabia.

    Saudis would pay for that. Trump is friends with Mohamed bin Salaman.


    That would allow Jews to annex Palestine and end occupation.

    They'd give civil rights to few Arabs that remain.


    That's not absolutely preferred option for Jews, because Jews do want ethically cleanse Palestine, but Jews also want to brown Europe in the process to foster Kalergi.


    https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-israeli-lawmakers-call-on-european-countries-to-take-in-gaza-refugees/


    But I guess they'll be satisfied with just Palestineans being cleansed out.


    --




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  • From Scall5@21:1/5 to jdeluise on Sat Nov 16 14:40:04 2024
    On 11/15/2024 2:57 PM, jdeluise wrote:
    Scall5 <[email protected]> writes:


    I think crime rates had a lot to do with it. When people don't feel
    safe downtown, they want change.


    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/

    Perception is more powerful than facts (even if the above is true). Even
    the above article admits that many areas do not report crime rates, thus incomplete studies. As the saying goes, "There are three types of lies;
    lies, damned lies, and statistics.
    --
    ---------------
    Scall5

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  • From =?UTF-8?Q?Pelle_Svansl=C3=B6s?=@21:1/5 to Sawfish on Sun Nov 17 00:03:35 2024
    On 16.11.2024 23.18, Sawfish wrote:
    On 11/16/24 12:40 PM, Scall5 wrote:
    On 11/15/2024 2:57 PM, jdeluise wrote:
    Scall5 <[email protected]> writes:


    I think crime rates had a lot to do with it. When people don't feel
    safe downtown, they want change.


    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/

    Perception is more powerful than facts (even if the above is true).
    Even the above article admits that many areas do not report crime
    rates, thus incomplete studies. As the saying goes, "There are three
    types of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    "I only trust statistics that I have falsified myself."

    attributed to Winston Churchill

    But originating from his little known step-brother WinsTTon. For reasons unknown, the Churchills rarely spoke of him.

    --
    "And off they went, from here to there,
    The bear, the bear, and the maiden fair"
    -- Traditional

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  • From bmoore@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Mon Nov 18 16:37:05 2024
    In article <AOA_O.71$[email protected]>, Sawfish <[email protected]> wrote: >On 11/17/24 9:25 PM, jdeluise wrote:
    PeteWasLucky <[email protected]> writes:

    The economy has been very bad, theft, inflation,  no jobs while
    Democrats' only messages were about transgenders, shared bathrooms,
    green energy, all electric cars, no gas stoves or heaters, forced
    vaccines, etc.

    That's what Fox News says anyway.

    You know, thinking about what I'm seeing for his appointments, and the
    way he plans to try to use recess appointments, this could be a really
    rough patch.

    I have no personal doubts that Trump is vindictive as hell, and he has
    many axes to grind for stuff in the last eight years; given what
    happened to him, I'd seek to even the score, too. It occurs to me that
    he's going to use his appointments to screw his enemies in DC.

    So why would he want to use recess appointments? The only reason is that
    he either would have a long, time-consuming process and some/many might
    not be approved at all. To bypass this, and get everything going *real
    fast*, he can attempt to adjourn Congress under Article II, Sec
    3--meaning they'd be in recess--and while adjourned he can appoint his >administration under the recess appointments clause.

    https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S3-1/ALDE_00013550/#:~:text=Article%20II%2C%20Section%203:,Officers%20of%20the%20United%20States.&text=Warren%2C%20Presidential%20Declarations%20of%20Independence,Houses%20has%20never%20been%
    20exercised.

    So, if things go his way, he'd adjourn congress, appoint his admin and >install them, Congress would start a new session, would would likely run >until the 2026 mid-term. When it reconvened, the appointees' terms would >expire, but it would mean that they'd have been in "office" for almost 2 >years, whacking away like out-of-town torpedoes.

    From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recess_appointment:

    "Appointments made during a recess must be confirmed by the Senate by
    the end of the next session of Congress, or the appointment expires. In >current practice, this means that a recess appointment must be approved
    by roughly the end of the next calendar year and thus could last for
    almost two years, if made early enough in the year."

    It's true that Obama tried to use recess appointments in a different
    manner (during pro forma senate sessions), but this was adjudicated
    against him. No president has ever adjourned congress, and if Trump
    actually got this to stick, there'd be no stopping him on anything, I think.

    So if we work from this speculation, it could certainly imply that
    Trump's hit men would be done by 2026, and it would be just fine to
    replace them, or, in a more sinister scenario, he'd have so altered the >"government" that laws that he didn't like would no longer be in force.

    We'll see soon enough.

    "Here's to living in interesting times...".

    If he could, Trump would try to appoint Congress, too.

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  • From Scall5@21:1/5 to PeteWasLucky on Mon Nov 18 23:11:04 2024
    On 11/17/2024 11:30 AM, PeteWasLucky wrote:

    [snip]

    People voted to change the status quo more than choosing Trump.
    The economy has been very bad, theft, inflation, no jobs while Democrats' only messages were about transgenders, shared bathrooms, green energy, all electric cars, no gas stoves or heaters, forced vaccines, etc. They never showed sympathy or
    connection to the American public.

    I agree 100% with you PeteWasLucky!

    Biden pushed for loans forgiveness, forgiving tax paid money for people that chose not to be liable while others that were, don't get a dime. Honestly everything has been irritating in the last four years.

    Again, I agree 100%.

    I voted for Kamala just to avoid Trump, but I would have voted for any other republican candidate.

    Totally understandable. Back in June no one was comfortable with either
    the GOP or Democrat candidate. Both of the aforementioned party
    apparatus appear to be governed by the rich elite. Thus the USA suffers...

    Great analysis PeteWasLucky!
    --
    ---------------
    Scall5

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