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  • Championship Game Lines

    From JGibson@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 26 17:29:55 2023
    Lines from espn.com, listed from supposed to be the biggest blowout to supposed to be the closest:

    Michigan -23 vs. Iowa
    Texas -14 vs. Oklahoma State
    @Liberty -10.5 vs. New Mexico State
    Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington
    Toledo -8 vs. Miami (OH)
    @Troy -6.5 vs. Appalachian State
    Georgia -5 vs. Alabama
    @Tulane -4 vs. SMU
    Florida State -3.5 vs. Louisville
    Boise State -3 @UNLV

    @ = home team, games with no "@" symbol are neutral

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Michael Falkner@21:1/5 to JGibson on Sun Nov 26 18:59:34 2023
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 5:29:58 PM UTC-8, JGibson wrote:
    Lines from espn.com, listed from supposed to be the biggest blowout to supposed to be the closest:

    Michigan -23 vs. Iowa

    With an over/under at about 34.5. Meaning they're thinking something of the realm of 28-3.

    Mike

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Eric Ramon@21:1/5 to JGibson on Sun Nov 26 20:50:04 2023
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 5:29:58 PM UTC-8, JGibson wrote:
    Lines from espn.com, listed from supposed to be the biggest blowout to supposed to be the closest:


    Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington

    I do not like this. This is top of the line bulletin board material.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From JGibson@21:1/5 to JGibson on Mon Nov 27 05:22:37 2023
    On Monday, November 27, 2023 at 8:20:15 AM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 11:50:07 PM UTC-5, Eric Ramon wrote:
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 5:29:58 PM UTC-8, JGibson wrote:
    Lines from espn.com, listed from supposed to be the biggest blowout to supposed to be the closest:

    Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington

    I do not like this. This is top of the line bulletin board material.
    I knew Oregon would be the favorite, but I was surprised at how much. Using Sagarin Predictor, Oregon would be a 6 point favorite.

    Does FPI work the same way? Oregon's FPI score is 8.8 points better than Washington's, which would be right in line with the Vegas spread.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From JGibson@21:1/5 to Eric Ramon on Mon Nov 27 05:20:12 2023
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 11:50:07 PM UTC-5, Eric Ramon wrote:
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 5:29:58 PM UTC-8, JGibson wrote:
    Lines from espn.com, listed from supposed to be the biggest blowout to supposed to be the closest:

    Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington

    I do not like this. This is top of the line bulletin board material.

    I knew Oregon would be the favorite, but I was surprised at how much. Using Sagarin Predictor, Oregon would be a 6 point favorite. I am curious about doing this a pretty naïve way, by simply comparing all their common opponents and then using a 3
    point advantage for the home team:

    Washington 59, California 32 - Washington is 24 points better than Cal Washington 36, Oregon 33 - Washington and Oregon are even
    Washington 15, Arizona State 7 - Washington is 5 points better than Arizona State
    Washington 42, Stanford 33 - Washington is 6 points better than Stanford Washington 52, USC 42 - Washington is 13 points better than USC
    Washington 35, Utah 28 - Washington is 4 points better than Utah
    Washington 22, Oregon State 20 - Washington is 5 points better than Oregon State
    Washington 24, Washington State 21 - Washington and Washington State are even

    Oregon 42, Stanford 6 - Oregon is 39 points better than Stanford
    Oregon 38, Washington State 24 - Oregon is 11 points better than Washington State
    Oregon 35, Utah 6 - Oregon is 32 points better than Utah
    Oregon 63, California 19 - Oregon is 41 points better than Cal
    Oregon 36, USC 27 - Oregon is 6 points better than USC
    Oregon 49, Arizona State 13 - Oregon is 39 points better than Arizona State Oregon 31, Oregon State 7 - Oregon is 21 points better than Oregon State

    Washington played Arizona and Oregon played Colorado, so those teams are not common opponents.

    By opponent:
    Cal: Oregon is 17 points better than Washington
    Arizona State: Oregon is 34 points better than Washington
    Stanford: Oregon is 33 points better than Washington
    USC: Washington is 7 points better than Oregon [the only one where Washington has the advantage]
    Utah: Oregon is 29 points better than Washington
    Oregon State: Oregon is 16 points better than Washington
    Washington State: Oregon is 11 points better than Washington
    Against each other: they were even

    Average: Oregon is 16 points better than Washington

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From JGibson@21:1/5 to JGibson on Mon Nov 27 05:26:34 2023
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:29:58 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    Lines from espn.com, listed from supposed to be the biggest blowout to supposed to be the closest:

    Michigan -23 vs. Iowa
    Texas -14 vs. Oklahoma State
    @Liberty -10.5 vs. New Mexico State
    Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington
    Toledo -8 vs. Miami (OH)
    @Troy -6.5 vs. Appalachian State
    Georgia -5 vs. Alabama
    @Tulane -4 vs. SMU
    Florida State -3.5 vs. Louisville
    Boise State -3 @UNLV

    @ = home team, games with no "@" symbol are neutral

    Here's the games listed in the same order above, but with ESPN's FPI% chance to win the game instead:
    Michigan 92.7%
    Texas 88.8%
    Liberty 82.5%
    Oregon 75.2%
    Toledo 60.7%
    Troy 67.6%
    Georgia 52.3%
    SMU 73.4% [Big disagreement here between FPI and Vegas]
    Florida State 73.2%
    Boise State 55.1%

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From JGibson@21:1/5 to JGibson on Tue Nov 28 04:59:16 2023
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:29:58 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    Lines from espn.com, listed from supposed to be the biggest blowout to supposed to be the closest:

    Updates as of this morning (11/28):
    Michigan -23 vs. Iowa
    SAME
    Texas -14 vs. Oklahoma State
    Now Texas -14.5
    @Liberty -10.5 vs. New Mexico State
    Now Liberty -10
    Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington
    SAME
    Toledo -8 vs. Miami (OH)
    Now Toledo -7.5
    @Troy -6.5 vs. Appalachian State
    SAME
    Georgia -5 vs. Alabama
    Now Georgia -6
    @Tulane -4 vs. SMU
    Now Tulane -5.5 (the public must be pushing this one, all the predictive computers like SMU)
    Florida State -3.5 vs. Louisville
    Now FSU -2.5
    Boise State -3 @UNLV
    Now Boise State -2

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From JGibson@21:1/5 to JGibson on Wed Nov 29 19:27:47 2023
    On Tuesday, November 28, 2023 at 7:59:19 AM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:29:58 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    Lines from espn.com, listed from supposed to be the biggest blowout to supposed to be the closest:
    Updates as of this morning (11/28):
    Michigan -23 vs. Iowa
    SAME
    Texas -14 vs. Oklahoma State
    Now Texas -14.5
    @Liberty -10.5 vs. New Mexico State
    Now Liberty -10
    Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington
    SAME
    Toledo -8 vs. Miami (OH)
    Now Toledo -7.5
    @Troy -6.5 vs. Appalachian State
    SAME
    Georgia -5 vs. Alabama
    Now Georgia -6
    @Tulane -4 vs. SMU
    Now Tulane -5.5 (the public must be pushing this one, all the predictive computers like SMU)
    Florida State -3.5 vs. Louisville
    Now FSU -2.5
    Boise State -3 @UNLV
    Now Boise State -2

    Updates as of 11/29 evening:
    Michigan has dropped to 21.5 point favorites over Iowa
    Texas up to 15.5 point favorites over Oklahoma State
    Liberty up to 11 over NMSU
    Oregon holding steady at 9.5 over Washington
    Toledo now favored by 8 again
    Troy at 6 over Appy State
    Georgia now up to 5.5 over Alabama
    Tulane now down to 3.5 over SMU. A pretty significant drop. I'm guessing bettors saw those predictive computers.
    Florida State still at 2.5 over Louisville
    Boise State now at 2.5 over UNLV, halfway between the 3 I first saw and the 2 at the last update.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)