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  • Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?

    From The NOTBCS Guy@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 30 16:04:33 2023
    William Hill was offering the follwing bets in Vegas:

    Alabama NOT winning the CFP championship: -900
    Georgia NOT winning the CFP championship: -290
    Ohio State NOT winning the CFP championship: -1700
    LSU NOT winning the CFP championship: -4000

    Meanwhile, Circa is offering:
    Alabama will lose at least one regular season game: -730
    (I was tempted to go the other way: +525 that they go 12-0)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Michael Falkner@21:1/5 to The NOTBCS Guy on Fri Jun 30 23:00:50 2023
    On Friday, June 30, 2023 at 4:04:35 PM UTC-7, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
    William Hill was offering the follwing bets in Vegas:

    Alabama NOT winning the CFP championship: -900
    Georgia NOT winning the CFP championship: -290
    Ohio State NOT winning the CFP championship: -1700
    LSU NOT winning the CFP championship: -4000

    Meanwhile, Circa is offering:
    Alabama will lose at least one regular season game: -730
    (I was tempted to go the other way: +525 that they go 12-0)

    What were they offering for CFP Championship not ALA or GA?

    That +525 almost sounds like easy money. Who, on that schedule, even threatens Alabama?

    Mike

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From TimV@21:1/5 to The NOTBCS Guy on Sat Jul 1 03:15:21 2023
    On Friday, June 30, 2023 at 6:04:35 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
    William Hill was offering the follwing bets in Vegas:

    Alabama NOT winning the CFP championship: -900
    Georgia NOT winning the CFP championship: -290
    Ohio State NOT winning the CFP championship: -1700
    LSU NOT winning the CFP championship: -4000

    Meanwhile, Circa is offering:
    Alabama will lose at least one regular season game: -730
    (I was tempted to go the other way: +525 that they go 12-0)

    I’ve never placed a bet in my life and likely never will. But the LSU one is definitely dumb. That’s like putting $4k in a 6 mo CD in a non FDIC bank that you’re pretty sure will still be there in 6 months, but at the return of only 2.5%.

    So that’s your answer. Unless you’re an edgelord betting because you’re a hopeless addict.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The NOTBCS Guy@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 1 07:02:46 2023
    William Hill was offering the follwing bets in Vegas:

    Alabama NOT winning the CFP championship: -900
    Georgia NOT winning the CFP championship: -290

    What were they offering for CFP Championship not ALA or GA?

    Assuming you mean a bet that neither team wins it, they didn't offer one, but you can kinda sorta make your own:
    Let's say you bet A on Alabama not winning, and G on Georgia not winning
    If Georgia wins, you end up with 1/9 A - G
    If Alabama wins, you end up with 10/29 G - A
    They are the same when 1/9 A - G = 10/29 G - A
    Add A + G to both sides: 10/9 A = 39/29 G
    Multiply both sides by 9 x 29: 290 A = 351 G
    If you bet 351 on Alabama (which pays 39) and 290 on Georgia (which pays 100), and:
    (a) Georgia wins, you end up with 39 - 290 = -251
    (b) Alabama wins, you end up with 100 - 351 = -251
    (c) neither wins, you end up with 39 + 100 = 139
    Even though you are betting 641 in total, you are actually risking 251 to win 139, which is about -180.

    On the other hand:
    Betting 251 on just Alabama pays about 28 if Alabama does not win
    Betting 251 on just Georgia pays about 87 if Georgia does not win

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The NOTBCS Guy@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 3 18:08:57 2023
    Meanwhile, over at Circa, where they ID everybody (they make it sound like it's to uphold their "must be at least 21" policy to get in, but the fact that they scan your ID and then wait for some sort of confirmation makes it look like they're checking
    you against some list of undesirables, like card counters), here are some other bets on not winning the CFP championship game:
    Oregon, -6000
    Washington, -8000
    Notre Dame, -9600
    UTEP, -14000
    Wisconsin, -18000
    Here's one to think about: USC, only -2000

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)