• Unsophisticated Prediction Tiers Season 62 Cup Play-in Round

    From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 19 11:17:44 2025
    What to do
    -----------

    Look at the fixtures below: do you play home or away? In any case:
    remember that it's single-leg, and a draw qualifies the team with the X
    on its side.

    *Home*
    - Before Wednesday 2025-02-26, 23:59 GMT
    - Pick one team from each of the two matches.

    *Away*
    - After Wednesday (or even sooner, if the home player has picked his
    teams) and before kickoff of the first match
    - Pick one of the teams not picked by your opponent (if he hasn't
    picked any team, you have free choice)
    - Their opponents will represent your opponent

    *ATTENTION: NEW RULE*: If the away player doesn't pick any team before
    his/her deadline, the home player will be represented by the team that
    achieves the best outcome out of his/her two picked teams.
    If the home player doesn't pick any team before his deadline, the away
    player can pick two teams (one from each match), and he/she will be
    represented by the team that achieves the best outcome out of his/her
    two picked teams.. If nobody picks a team, teams are assigned
    randomly.)"

    Play-in

    PI1: Futbolmetrix - milivella
    Napoli 1X - Cagliari 2
    Milan 1X - Monza 2


    PI2: Jesus Petry - Homer Simpson
    Empoli 1 - Verona X2
    Girona 1X - Atletico Madrid 2


    PI3: Jesper Lauridsen - MH
    Nottingham Forest 1X - Chelsea 2
    Philadelphia Union 1 - Inter Miami X2


    PI4: Mark - Werner Pichler
    Tottenham 1X - Brighton 2
    San Jose Earthquakes 1 - Houston Dynamo X2


    -----------------------

    QF schedule:
    QF1:
    1. The Doctor - Winner PI1

    QF2:
    4. Lleo - Winner PI2

    QF3
    2. Blueshirt - Winner PI3

    QF4
    3. Silver Skull - Winner PI4

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Jesus Petry on Mon May 19 19:59:04 2025
    On Mon, 19 May 2025 18:52:55 +0000, Jesus Petry wrote:

    On 19/05/2025 08:17, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    PI2: Jesus Petry   - Homer Simpson
    Empoli 1   -   Verona X2
    Girona 1X   -   Atletico Madrid 2

    *rona.


    Homer picks *poli, doh! (Yeah, you would have liked Napoli, Homer...)

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue May 20 11:45:13 2025
    On Mon, 19 May 2025 11:17:44 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Play-in

    PI1: Futbolmetrix - milivella
    Napoli 1X - Cagliari 2
    Milan 1X - Monza 2

    You're lucky, because those weren't the real matches.

    1. Starting in 1982:
    [nextpage 1X]: 1, 0, 1(1), 0, 0, 0, (1), 0, 0, 0, 0
    [nextpage 2]: 1(4), (1), 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, (1), 0

    2. Also starting in 1982, but less restrictive
    [nextpage 1X]: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0
    [nextpage 2]: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 2


    I pick [nextpage 2] in match 1, and [nextpage 1X] in match 2.

    If you don't pick a team, or make no attempt at guessing who [nextpage]
    are, you're a chicken.

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  • From Mark@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue May 20 16:14:49 2025
    On Mon, 19 May 2025 11:17:44 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:


    PI4: Mark - Werner Pichler
    Tottenham 1X - Brighton 2
    San Jose Earthquakes 1 - Houston Dynamo X2


    San Jose Earthquakes and Tottenham

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  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Mark on Tue May 20 22:59:06 2025
    Mark <[email protected]> wrote:
    On Mon, 19 May 2025 11:17:44 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:


    PI4: Mark - Werner Pichler
    Tottenham 1X - Brighton 2
    San Jose Earthquakes 1 - Houston Dynamo X2


    San Jose Earthquakes and Tottenham


    The Original San Jose Earthquakes.

    Ciao,
    Werner

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  • From Jesper Lauridsen@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Thu May 22 00:13:58 2025
    On 19/05/2025 13.17, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    PI3: Jesper Lauridsen   -   MH
    Nottingham Forest 1X   -   Chelsea 2
    Philadelphia Union 1   -   Inter Miami X2

    West Bridgford & Chester

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to Jesper Lauridsen on Wed May 21 17:22:17 2025
    On 2025-05-21 16:13, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
    On 19/05/2025 13.17, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    PI3: Jesper Lauridsen   -   MH
    Nottingham Forest 1X   -   Chelsea 2
    Philadelphia Union 1   -   Inter Miami X2

    West Bridgford & Chester

    Inter Miami.

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to milivella on Mon May 26 11:21:43 2025
    On 2025-05-25 20:32, milivella wrote:
    MH:

    On 2025-05-21 16:13, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
    On 19/05/2025 13.17, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    PI3: Jesper Lauridsen   -   MH
    Nottingham Forest 1X   -   Chelsea 2
    Philadelphia Union 1   -   Inter Miami X2

    West Bridgford & Chester

    Inter Miami.

    You big brains don't care to explain your riddles to the plebs anymore? :D

    Actual locations of the home grounds of Nottingham Forest and
    Philadelphia Union.

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to milivella on Tue May 27 01:36:01 2025
    On Sun, 25 May 2025 2:13:58 +0000, milivella wrote:

    Futbolmetrix:

    On Mon, 19 May 2025 11:17:44 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Play-in

    PI1: Futbolmetrix   -   milivella
    Napoli 1X - Cagliari 2
    Milan 1X - Monza 2

    You're lucky, because those weren't the real matches.

    1. Starting in 1982:
    [nextpage 1X]: 1, 0, 1(1), 0, 0, 0, (1), 0, 0, 0, 0
    [nextpage 2]: 1(4), (1), 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, (1), 0

    There are 11 values in the first line but only 10 in the second (as highlighted by my reformatting). Was it voluntary on your part?

    You're right, it was a mistake. The correct lines should have been:

    1. Starting in 1982:
    [nextpage 1X]: 1, 0, 1(1), 0, 0, 0, (1), 0, 0, 0, 0
    [nextpage 2]: 1(4), (1), 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, (1), 0


    2. Also starting in 1982, but less restrictive
    [nextpage 1X]: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0
    [nextpage 2]: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 2


    I pick [nextpage 2] in match 1, and [nextpage 1X] in match 2.

    If you don't pick a team, or make no attempt at guessing who [nextpage]
    are, you're a chicken.

    Wow, that is fun. Also, I am not a chicken. So I should try to guess
    even if I'm late.


    [snip off-track attempt]


    There are 11 (assuming match 1, team 2 is a mistake) values for each
    teams. There have been 11 World Cups since 1982. Interesting! It could
    be the number of players of that club at the World Cup, with the number
    in brackets maybe being players called up by a nation that is not the
    club's home nation. Let's check it:

    Getting warmer, almost hot.

    I'm nice, so I'll give you some additional hints:

    1. Even if you had managed to guess the teams, I would have won the UPT
    match anyway, as I picked the advancing team in both matchups.

    2. The numbers in brackets have some meaning.

    3. Did you really have to wrack your brain to solve the riddle? I think
    it was relatively easy to figure out who [nextpage] was in both matchups
    even if you ignored completely the sequence of numbers. Then, of course,
    it could have been an interesting challenge to figure out what the
    numbers meant, after you knew the teams.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue May 27 02:37:47 2025
    On Mon, 19 May 2025 11:17:44 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    What to do
    -----------


    Results:

    Results
    Futbolmetrix ?-? milivella (???-???) [Futbolmetrix advances]
    Jesus Petry 2-1 Homer Simpson (Verona X2-Empoli 1)
    Jesper Lauridsen 3-3 MH(*) (Philadelphia Union 1-Inter Miami X2) Mark 3-3 Werner Pichler(*) (San Jose Earthquakes 1-Houston Dynamo X2)


    Pretty eventful matches in the MLS, away teams advance in the bottom
    half of the draw, home teams advance in the top half.

    Cup QFs to be announced shortly.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to milivella on Wed May 28 17:19:48 2025
    On Wed, 28 May 2025 2:51:02 +0000, milivella wrote:

    Futbolmetrix:


    1. Starting in 1982:
    [nextpage 1X]:    1,   0, 1(1), 0, 0, 0, (1), 0,   0, 0, 0
    [nextpage 2]:  1(4), (1),    0, 0, 0, 0,   1, 0, (1), 0

    There are 11 values in the first line but only 10 in the second (as
    highlighted by my reformatting). Was it voluntary on your part?

    You're right, it was a mistake.

    And this still doesn't guarantee an automatic win for me?!

    No, beacuse you had figured out the mistake very easily.



    The matches should check all the following criteria:
    - It should be a major league.

    Yep.

    - One of the teams should have odds of winning around 2.0 (supposedly
    between 1.75 and 2.25, but who knows if Futbolmetrix follows the gamemastering rules, a fortiori in a match against me?).

    Yes.

    - (Indeed, both teams should still have something to play for - European
    cup spot, avoiding relegation etc. But really, I don't expect this
    gamemaster to care about that...)

    No, didn't really look at this. I was just trying to find the matches
    with balanced enough odds.

    - Both clubs should be big enough to have something to do with World
    Cups.

    OK.

    (Side thought: maybe the "less restrictive" numbers in 1982 is
    something like players who have played in that WC and _even at some
    other time_ have played for that club, but (1) it looks like the
    criterion is not exactly "club players at that WC" and (2) I don't see Futbolmetrix wasting all the time one needs to check the career of all
    the players at every WC since 1982---or maybe he doesn't need to do so?
    I vaguely remember he has a database like that...)

    Slightly warmer, I guess?


    Candidates, before checking which (real) matches were selected for the
    other (UPT) matches:
    Getafe - Celta Vigo
    Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger AC
    Dender - KV Mechelen
    Willem II - Dordrecht
    Ipswich - West Ham
    Nottingham - Chelsea
    Tottenham - Brighton
    Wolves - Brentford
    Atalanta - Parma
    Empoli - Verona
    Udinese - Fiorentina
    Girona - Atl. Madrid
    Villareal - Sevilla
    Ath Bilbao - Barcelona
    Genk - Anderlecht
    Fluminense - Vasco
    Palmeiras - Flamengo RJ
    Kayserispor - Bodrumspor

    Match 1 is indeed in this list, while Match 2 is not. Maybe it missed
    the odds cutoff by a small amount.

    Hint: You *should* check which other UPT matches were selected. There's
    a certain pattern that isn't difficult to figure out. Take that together
    with the knowledge that I advanced, and you should be able to figure out
    the identities of at least the two teams in Match 1.


    Prof Futbolmetrix, is this proof of work enough to get the grad... I
    mean, the solution?

    You get a D+ for effort, but I will give you another chance to raise
    your grade to a C.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to milivella on Wed May 28 22:27:02 2025
    On Wed, 28 May 2025 18:51:45 +0000, milivella wrote:

    Let's check the odds again and remove the matches with the home team favorite. The remaining matches are:

    Italy:
    Udinese - Fiorentina (I see that a Fiorentina win was at 2.34, but
    again, this match may have been included)

    Spain:
    Getafe - Celta Vigo
    Ath Bilbao - Barcelona

    You're basically there.


    Among these three matches, which one better fits the pattern that has
    the clubs more involved in the WCs from 1982 to 1990?
    - Udinese had 1 player at WC82 (Causio),

    Hot!

    Fiorentina had 5 Italians

    Very Hot!

    + 1 Argentinian.

    Cooling down...


    The Fiorentina players scored 3 goals (2 Bertoni + 1
    Graziani).

    Cooling down

    If we give 1 point for "having at least one player at the WC"
    and 1 point per goal scored by said players, you get 1-4! (kidding...).

    Lukewarm


    - Udinese had 1 player at WC86 (Edinho---wait a minute, was he Brazil's captain?! unexpected!), Fiorentina 2 (Passarella and Galli).

    Lukewarm

    - Wait a minute. What if they are players in the final? WC82: Causio
    from the bench (yes?)

    Boiling hot!

    vs... just Graziani for the first 7 minutes.

    You basically just burnt yourself!

    Nah.

    And then poured some ice water on your burns.

    You're basically there. OK, match 1 was indeed Udinese-Fiorentina. You
    figure out the rule.


    Match 2, as we said, was not included in your list, even though
    rechecking your link, it had closer odds than Udinese-Fiorentina, so it
    was your fault for doing sloppy work. C-

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  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri May 30 02:50:49 2025
    Futbolmetrix <[email protected]> wrote:
    On Fri, 30 May 2025 1:54:54 +0000, milivella wrote:


    You can definitely ask. After carefully re-evaluating all your work, the grade remains C-

    I should do more of these, it's fun!


    For some reason this popped into my mind

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=XMOKMS1MURk


    Ciao,
    Werner

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to milivella on Fri May 30 02:32:49 2025
    On Fri, 30 May 2025 1:54:54 +0000, milivella wrote:

    Futbolmetrix:

    You're basically there. OK, match 1 was indeed Udinese-Fiorentina. You
    figure out the rule.

    Players who played in the final for (were in the squad of) the winning
    team?

    Let's check:

    WC: 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18 22
    [nextpage 1X]: 1, 0 , 1(1), 0, 0, 0, (1), 0, 0, 0, 0
    [nextpage 2]: 1(4), (1), 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, (1),0

    1982:
    - Udinese: 1: Causio
    - Fiorentina: 1 (4): Graziani (Vierchowod, Antognoni, Massaro, Galli)
    1986... no.

    Ackshually... Passarella



    Let's change the criterion to "players who played in the final (were in
    the squad of) finalist teams". 1982 remains unchanged (and fitting).

    1986:
    - Fiorentina: (1): (Passarella)
    1990:
    - Udinese: 1 (1): Sensini (Balbo)
    2006:
    - Udinese: (1): (Iaquinta)
    - Fiorentina: 1: Toni
    2018:
    - Fiorentina: (1): (Badelj)

    I will not check the 0's. If the >0s are correct, chances are the
    hypothesis is correct.


    Yeah, you kind of got there by accident, and not exactly a complete
    proof, is it?



    Match 2, as we said, was not included in your list, even though
    rechecking your link, it had closer odds than Udinese-Fiorentina, so it
    was your fault for doing sloppy work.

    You mean for doing a work that was not sloppy enough? I shouldn't have included Udinese-Fiorentina to begin with!

    Anyway, at this point I more or less know that it's a Spanish match,
    that is not among the ones I had listed, and that the away team had
    <2.32 odds to win on betexplorer. This univocally identifies
    Alaves-Osasuna.

    \o/

    Can I decrypt the "less restrictive" criterion?

    The first, trivial, intuition is "players at the WC". Let's see (again,
    only checking values >0).

    wc 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18 22
    [nextpage 1X]: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0
    [nextpage 2]: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 2

    - 06: Alaves 1 (Aloisi); Osasuna... 1 (Milosevic) + maybe 1 ("Nekounam
    joined Osasuna following the tournament"). Hmm.
    - 14: Osasuna 1 (Silva)!
    So it's not it?! Or is this another Nekounam-like case? Let's keep
    checking:
    - 18: Alaves 1 (Guidetti)
    - 22: Osasuna 2 (Budimir, Ezzalzouli)

    Hmm...Osasuna's wiki page claims Nekounam in both the 2006 and 2014
    World Cups...



    I guess it's it.

    C-

    Can I ask for a reassessment of my work, Prof?


    You can definitely ask. After carefully re-evaluating all your work, the
    grade remains C-

    I should do more of these, it's fun!

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Sun Jun 1 13:54:24 2025
    On Tue, 27 May 2025 2:37:47 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Mon, 19 May 2025 11:17:44 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    What to do
    -----------


    Results:

    Results
    Futbolmetrix ?-? milivella (???-???) [Futbolmetrix advances]
    Jesus Petry 2-1 Homer Simpson (Verona X2-Empoli 1)
    Jesper Lauridsen 3-3 MH(*) (Philadelphia Union 1-Inter Miami X2)
    Mark 3-3 Werner Pichler(*) (San Jose Earthquakes 1-Houston Dynamo X2)




    For completeness:

    Futbolmetrix 3-2 milivella (Fiorentina 2-Udinese 1X)
    Jesus Petry 2-1 Homer Simpson (Verona X2-Empoli 1)
    Jesper Lauridsen 3-3 MH(*) (Philadelphia Union 1-Inter Miami X2) Mark 3-3 Werner Pichler(*) (San Jose Earthquakes 1-Houston Dynamo X2)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Jesper Lauridsen@21:1/5 to milivella on Sun Jun 1 16:27:21 2025
    On 26/05/2025 04.32, milivella wrote:
    MH:

    On 2025-05-21 16:13, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
    On 19/05/2025 13.17, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    PI3: Jesper Lauridsen   -   MH
    Nottingham Forest 1X   -   Chelsea 2
    Philadelphia Union 1   -   Inter Miami X2

    West Bridgford & Chester

    Inter Miami.

    You big brains don't care to explain your riddles to the plebs anymore? :D

    The big brain move would have been to notice that the X was on the Messi
    team,

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