Add your entries to the spreadsheets below

Champions League: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing


Europa League: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

[I think I have imposed the correct restrictions implied by the draw,
but please check in case I have missed something]

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sun, 9 Feb 2025 13:43:37 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Add your entries to the spreadsheets below

Champions League: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

My human entry:

Futbolmetrix
P_R32 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF Total
Brest 0.8 0.15 0.04 0.005 0.004 0.001 1 OK
Paris Saint-Germain 0.2 0.5 0.152 0.08 0.038 0.03 1 OK
1
OK
Monaco 0.55 0.38 0.05 0.01 0.0075 0.0025 1 OK
Benfica 0.45 0.38 0.0925 0.05 0.0175 0.01 1 OK
1
OK
Barcelona 0 0.32 0.32 0.145 0.09 0.125 1 OK Liverpool 0 0.27 0.27 0.18 0.13 0.15 1 OK
2
OK
Club Brugge 0.75 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.007 0.003 1 OK Atalanta 0.25 0.4 0.2 0.104 0.026 0.02 1 OK
1
OK
Sporting CP 0.55 0.25 0.155 0.03 0.01 0.005 1 OK Borussia Dortmund 0.45 0.3 0.175 0.045 0.02 0.01 1 OK
1
OK
Lille 0 0.44 0.3825 0.13 0.0275 0.02 1 OK
Aston Villa 0 0.42 0.3825 0.15 0.0275 0.02 1 OK
2
OK
Manchester City 0.53 0.18 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.08 1 OK
Real Madrid 0.47 0.19 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.09 1 OK
1
OK
Celtic 0.8 0.15 0.04 0.007 0.002 0.001 1 OK
Bayern Munich 0.2 0.3 0.22 0.1105 0.08 0.0895 1 OK
1
OK
Atletico Madrid 0 0.59 0.203 0.112 0.05 0.045 1 OK Bayer Leverkusen 0 0.59 0.203 0.112 0.05 0.045 1 OK
2
OK
Juventus 0.43 0.35 0.11 0.064 0.03 0.016 1 OK
PSV Eindhoven 0.57 0.34 0.06 0.02 0.006 0.004 1 OK
1
OK
Feyenoord 0.57 0.34 0.06 0.02 0.007 0.003 1 OK Milan 0.43 0.35 0.11 0.065 0.025 0.02 1 OK
1
OK
Arsenal 0 0.32 0.2725 0.21 0.0975 0.1 1 OK
Inter 0 0.3 0.282 0.1905 0.1175 0.11 1 OK
2
OK
8 8 4 2 1 1 24
OK OK OK OK OK OK OK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2025-02-09 06:43, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Add your entries to the spreadsheets below

Champions League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/ d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

Europa League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/ d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

[I think I have imposed the correct restrictions implied by the draw,
but please check in case I have missed something]

I have uploaded my CL one. Hope it is saved and according to the rules.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Mon, 10 Feb 2025 18:41:21 +0000, MH wrote:

On 2025-02-09 06:43, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Add your entries to the spreadsheets below

Champions League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing


Europa League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

[I think I have imposed the correct restrictions implied by the draw,
but please check in case I have missed something]

I have uploaded my CL one. Hope it is saved and according to the rules.

Yes, loos good.
Entries so far:

UCL:
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

UEL:
Aggie
MH (*) [I take it this is a preliminary entry, as it is identical to
Aggie]

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2025-02-10 12:23, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Mon, 10 Feb 2025 18:41:21 +0000, MH wrote:

On 2025-02-09 06:43, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Add your entries to the spreadsheets below

Champions League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing


Europa League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

[I think I have imposed the correct restrictions implied by the draw,
but please check in case I have missed something]

I have uploaded my CL one.  Hope it is saved and according to the rules.

Yes, loos good.
Entries so far:

UCL:
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

UEL:
Aggie
MH (*) [I take it this is a preliminary entry, as it is identical to
Aggie]

Yes, I duplicated aggie and renamed it, but did not enter my predictions
yet.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Mon, 10 Feb 2025 20:41:26 +0000, MH wrote:

Entries so far:

UCL:
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner

Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula


EL:
Aggie
MH (*)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2025-02-11 06:52, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Mon, 10 Feb 2025 20:41:26 +0000, MH wrote:

Entries so far:

UCL:
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner

Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula

EL:
Aggie
MH (*)

My EL one now entered and presumably saved.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tue, 11 Feb 2025 13:52:54 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Mon, 10 Feb 2025 20:41:26 +0000, MH wrote:

Entries so far:

UCL:
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner

Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula

ClubElo and TransferMarkt predictions in (made before the deadline).

I'm still not sure there aren't additional restrictions that one should
impose on the probabilities (the draw is pretty set), but we'll let it
go.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 2:51:54 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Tue, 11 Feb 2025 13:52:54 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Mon, 10 Feb 2025 20:41:26 +0000, MH wrote:

Entries so far:

UCL:
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner

Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula

ClubElo and TransferMarkt predictions in (made before the deadline).

I'm still not sure there aren't additional restrictions that one should impose on the probabilities (the draw is pretty set), but we'll let it
go.

Ugh, yes there are. The top 12 teams in the spreadsheet are in fact in
the "top half of the draw", and can not meet any of the teams in the
bottom half of the spreadsheet before the semifinals. The sum of p_qf
for the 12 teams in each half of the draw must be exactly equal to 2.

I say we keep things as is for the UCL, but you are welcome to submit a
revised spreadsheet for the Europa League. Or just ignore the additional restriction and let the bots enjoy their massive advantage...

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 3:02:25 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

I say we keep things as is for the UCL, but you are welcome to submit a revised spreadsheet for the Europa League. Or just ignore the additional restriction and let the bots enjoy their massive advantage...

I have modified the UEL sheet. Now cells D26 and D60 will warn you that
they "should be = 2", but I will accept entries even when that condition
is not satisfied.

UEL entries so far
------------------
Aggie
MH
Jesus
ClubElo(by Futbolmetrix), in progress
TransferMarkt(by Futbolmetrix), in progress

Working on my human entry

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 10:42:15 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

Is that so? I thought e.g. it's the two uppermost pairs PSG/Brest and Monaco/Benfica that should not be able to meet before the final.
But PSG/Brest can meet one of Lille/Aston Villa from the bottom half.

The semifinals cross, but the quarterfinals do not. There will be
exactly two quarterfinalists out of (BRE-PSG, MON-BEN, BAR, LIV and
BRU-ATA, SPO-DOR, AVL and LIL). That means that, for example, Real
Madrid cannot meet Barcelona before the semifinal.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 13:25:41 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

On 12.02.2025 12:56, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 10:42:15 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

Is that so? I thought e.g. it's the two uppermost pairs PSG/Brest and
Monaco/Benfica that should not be able to meet before the final.
But PSG/Brest can meet one of Lille/Aston Villa from the bottom half.

The semifinals cross, but the quarterfinals do not. There will be
exactly two quarterfinalists out of (BRE-PSG, MON-BEN, BAR, LIV and
BRU-ATA, SPO-DOR, AVL and LIL). That means that, for example, Real
Madrid cannot meet Barcelona before the semifinal.

Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I can't vouch for any other human entries though... ;-)

2.2595 and 1.7405 here. Sure, make fun of me, we'll see who laughs last!

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 13:25:41 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I think we need to reconsider MH's classification as a human.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2025-02-12 09:02, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 13:25:41 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I think we need to reconsider MH's classification as a human.

I am not sure I understand the problem.

Until the draw happens after the first round, we don't know which of

Liverpool or Barca

Lille or Villa

Arsenal or Inter

Bayer or Atletico

is in which half of the draw (bottom or top), just that one of each pair
will be in each half.

We do know that all of Brest, PSG, Real Madrid, City, Juventus, PSV,
Atalanta and Bruges will be in top half if they do win. Whereas the
other 8 would all, if victorious, be in the bottom half.

What am I missing?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 20:55:10 +0000, MH wrote:

On 2025-02-12 09:02, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 13:25:41 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I think we need to reconsider MH's classification as a human.

I am not sure I understand the problem.

Now he's acting confused so so that we think that he is indeed human!

Until the draw happens after the first round, we don't know which of

Liverpool or Barca

Lille or Villa

Arsenal or Inter

Bayer or Atletico

is in which half of the draw (bottom or top), just that one of each pair
will be in each half.

The "bottom" or "top" denomination (or "left" and "right") is a bit
misleading. Take the figure posted on the UEFA website:

https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/0294-1c8996e7b52e-559ccdc197e6-1000--uefa-champions-league-knockout-phase-play-off-draw/

It's true that Liverpool and Barcelona can be either in the left half of
the draw or the right half of the draw. However, you will notice that
Liverpool and Barcelona are always in the top part of their side of the
draw. Therefore, the number of quarterfinalists from the set {Brest-PSG, Monaco-Benfica, Liverpool and Barcelona} + {Club Brugge-Atalanta, Sporting-Borussia Dortmund, Aston Villa, Lille} must exactly be equal to
2.

The restriction is on the quarterfinals, not the semifinals. In the
semifinals, everybody can play everybody.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2025-02-12 15:23, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 20:55:10 +0000, MH wrote:

On 2025-02-12 09:02, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 13:25:41 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower, >>>> so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I think we need to reconsider MH's classification as a human.

I am not sure I understand the problem.

Now he's acting confused so so that we think that he is indeed human!

Until the draw happens after the first round, we don't know which of

Liverpool or Barca

Lille  or Villa

Arsenal or Inter

Bayer or Atletico

is in which half of the draw (bottom or top), just that one of each pair
will be in each half.

The "bottom" or "top" denomination (or "left" and "right") is a bit misleading. Take the figure posted on the UEFA website:

https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/ news/0294-1c8996e7b52e-559ccdc197e6-1000--uefa-champions-league- knockout-phase-play-off-draw/

It's true that Liverpool and Barcelona can be either in the left half of
the draw or the right half of the draw. However, you will notice that Liverpool and Barcelona are always in the top part of their side of the
draw. Therefore, the number of quarterfinalists from the set {Brest-PSG, Monaco-Benfica, Liverpool and Barcelona} + {Club Brugge-Atalanta, Sporting-Borussia Dortmund, Aston Villa, Lille} must exactly be equal to
2.

I get that. I think.

The restriction is on the quarterfinals, not the semifinals. In the semifinals, everybody can play everybody.

Really ? I thought it was impossible for Liverpool and Barcelona to
meet before the final, for example. Ditto for Arsenal and Inter. And so
on.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 0:53:39 +0000, MH wrote:

The restriction is on the quarterfinals, not the semifinals. In the
semifinals, everybody can play everybody.

Really ? I thought it was impossible for Liverpool and Barcelona to
meet before the final, for example. Ditto for Arsenal and Inter. And so
on.

Yse, you're right. With exception of the two seeded teams in the same
bubble (BAR-LIV, LIL-AVL, ATM-LEV and ARS-INT) who can only play each
other in the final, everybody else can play each other in the semis.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 10:36:19 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 3:02:25 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

I say we keep things as is for the UCL, but you are welcome to submit a
revised spreadsheet for the Europa League. Or just ignore the additional
restriction and let the bots enjoy their massive advantage...

I have modified the UEL sheet. Now cells D26 and D60 will warn you that
they "should be = 2", but I will accept entries even when that condition
is not satisfied.

UEL entries so far
------------------
Aggie
MH
Jesus
ClubElo(by Futbolmetrix), in progress
TransferMarkt(by Futbolmetrix), in progress

Working on my human entry

Managed to get it in before deadline.


UEL enries:
Aggie
Jesus
MH
Werner
ClebElo (by Futbolmetrix)
Transfermarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
Futbolmetrix
Collective Consciousness (to be added)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sun, 9 Feb 2025 13:43:37 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:


Sophcon standings after the first leg of the playoff round:

Champions League: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

-9.602 Werner Pichler
-9.804 Jesus Petry
-10.138 Futbolmetrix
-10.209 Collective Consciousness
-10.565 MH
-10.922 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.339 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

Europa League: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

-9.724 MH
-10.221 Jesus Petry
-10.295 Futbolmetrix
-10.333 Collective Consciousness
-10.554 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.658 Werner Pichler
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.478 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sun, 16 Feb 2025 14:25:08 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 9 Feb 2025 13:43:37 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Sophcon standings after the first leg of the playoff round:

Champions League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

-9.602 Werner Pichler
-9.804 Jesus Petry
-10.138 Futbolmetrix
-10.209 Collective Consciousness
-10.565 MH
-10.922 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.339 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-10.205 Jesus Petry
-10.581 Werner Pichler
-10.702 Futbolmetrix
-10.916 Collective Consciousness
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.376 MH
-11.866 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.895 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

This Futbolmetrix dude should really improve his bots...

Europa League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

-9.724 MH
-10.221 Jesus Petry
-10.295 Futbolmetrix
-10.333 Collective Consciousness
-10.554 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.658 Werner Pichler
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.478 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-9.724 MH
-9.964 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.342 Collective Consciousness
-10.448 Werner Pichler
-10.539 Futbolmetrix
-11.032 Jesus Petry
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.197 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sat, 22 Feb 2025 13:53:30 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 16 Feb 2025 14:25:08 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 9 Feb 2025 13:43:37 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:


Sophcon standings after the first leg of the playoff round:

Champions League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

-9.602 Werner Pichler
-9.804 Jesus Petry
-10.138 Futbolmetrix
-10.209 Collective Consciousness
-10.565 MH
-10.922 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.339 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-10.205 Jesus Petry
-10.581 Werner Pichler
-10.702 Futbolmetrix
-10.916 Collective Consciousness
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.376 MH
-11.866 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.895 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

After the Round of 16:

-19.288 Werner Pichler
-19.358 Futbolmetrix
-19.627 Collective Consciousness
-19.826 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-19.924 MH
-20.561 Jesus Petry
-20.950 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-22.181 Agnostic

Europa League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

-9.724 MH
-10.221 Jesus Petry
-10.295 Futbolmetrix
-10.333 Collective Consciousness
-10.554 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.658 Werner Pichler
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.478 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-9.724 MH
-9.964 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.342 Collective Consciousness
-10.448 Werner Pichler
-10.539 Futbolmetrix
-11.032 Jesus Petry
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.197 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

After the Round of 16:

-17.737 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-18.815 MH
-19.464 Collective Consciousness
-19.483 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-20.567 Futbolmetrix
-20.618 Werner Pichler
-21.306 Jesus Petry
-22.181 Agnostic

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Fri, 14 Mar 2025 0:28:12 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sat, 22 Feb 2025 13:53:30 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 16 Feb 2025 14:25:08 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 9 Feb 2025 13:43:37 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:


Sophcon standings after the first leg of the playoff round:

Champions League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

-9.602 Werner Pichler
-9.804 Jesus Petry
-10.138 Futbolmetrix
-10.209 Collective Consciousness
-10.565 MH
-10.922 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.339 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-10.205 Jesus Petry
-10.581 Werner Pichler
-10.702 Futbolmetrix
-10.916 Collective Consciousness
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.376 MH
-11.866 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.895 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

After the Round of 16:

-19.288 Werner Pichler
-19.358 Futbolmetrix
-19.627 Collective Consciousness
-19.826 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-19.924 MH
-20.561 Jesus Petry
-20.950 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-22.181 Agnostic

After the QFs:

-23.803 MH
-24.300 Werner Pichler
-24.313 Collective Consciousness
-24.545 Futbolmetrix
-24.575 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-24.793 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-26.636 Jesus Petry
-27.726 Agnostic

Europa League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

-9.724 MH
-10.221 Jesus Petry
-10.295 Futbolmetrix
-10.333 Collective Consciousness
-10.554 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.658 Werner Pichler
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.478 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-9.724 MH
-9.964 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.342 Collective Consciousness
-10.448 Werner Pichler
-10.539 Futbolmetrix
-11.032 Jesus Petry
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.197 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

After the Round of 16:

-17.737 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-18.815 MH
-19.464 Collective Consciousness
-19.483 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-20.567 Futbolmetrix
-20.618 Werner Pichler
-21.306 Jesus Petry
-22.181 Agnostic

After the QFs

-23.380 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-24.127 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-24.507 Collective Consciousness
-24.966 MH
-25.344 Werner Pichler
-25.470 Futbolmetrix
-26.428 Jesus Petry
-27.726 Agnostic

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Fri, 18 Apr 2025 20:50:37 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Fri, 14 Mar 2025 0:28:12 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sat, 22 Feb 2025 13:53:30 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 16 Feb 2025 14:25:08 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 9 Feb 2025 13:43:37 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:


Sophcon standings after the first leg of the playoff round:

Champions League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

-9.602 Werner Pichler
-9.804 Jesus Petry
-10.138 Futbolmetrix
-10.209 Collective Consciousness
-10.565 MH
-10.922 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.339 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-10.205 Jesus Petry
-10.581 Werner Pichler
-10.702 Futbolmetrix
-10.916 Collective Consciousness
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.376 MH
-11.866 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.895 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

After the Round of 16:

-19.288 Werner Pichler
-19.358 Futbolmetrix
-19.627 Collective Consciousness
-19.826 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-19.924 MH
-20.561 Jesus Petry
-20.950 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-22.181 Agnostic

After the QFs:

-23.803 MH
-24.300 Werner Pichler
-24.313 Collective Consciousness
-24.545 Futbolmetrix
-24.575 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-24.793 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-26.636 Jesus Petry
-27.726 Agnostic

After the SFs

-26.654 MH
-27.247 Collective Consciousness
-27.331 Werner Pichler
-27.487 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-27.504 Futbolmetrix
-27.930 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-29.769 Jesus Petry
-30.498 Agnostic


Not a lot of suspense left. MH wins the SophCon regardless of the
outcome of the final. Congrats! (However, Werner tops the Brier and RPS rankings)

Europa League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

-9.724 MH
-10.221 Jesus Petry
-10.295 Futbolmetrix
-10.333 Collective Consciousness
-10.554 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.658 Werner Pichler
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.478 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-9.724 MH
-9.964 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.342 Collective Consciousness
-10.448 Werner Pichler
-10.539 Futbolmetrix
-11.032 Jesus Petry
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.197 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

After the Round of 16:

-17.737 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-18.815 MH
-19.464 Collective Consciousness
-19.483 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-20.567 Futbolmetrix
-20.618 Werner Pichler
-21.306 Jesus Petry
-22.181 Agnostic

After the QFs

-23.380 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-24.127 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-24.507 Collective Consciousness
-24.966 MH
-25.344 Werner Pichler
-25.470 Futbolmetrix
-26.428 Jesus Petry
-27.726 Agnostic

After the SFs

-25.710 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-25.874 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-26.341 MH
-26.497 Collective Consciousness
-27.621 Werner Pichler
-28.112 Futbolmetrix
-28.603 Jesus Petry
-30.498 Agnostic

Bots on top, and the strong performance by the WWEP£ teams means that TransferMarkt will take home the prize, regardless of the outcome of the
final.
(In an interesting twist, MH will top the Brier and RPS rankings here)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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After the SFs

-26.654    MH
-27.247    Collective Consciousness
-27.331    Werner Pichler
-27.487    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-27.504    Futbolmetrix
-27.930    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-29.769    Jesus Petry
-30.498    Agnostic

Not a lot of suspense left. MH wins the SophCon regardless of the
outcome of the final. Congrats! (However, Werner tops the Brier and RPS rankings)

Very surprised by this, as I was not all that optimistic about either
team's chances (.08 for Inter, .05 for PSG) and had rated Barcelona,
Liverpool, Arsenal, and Atalanta more highly than either of them, and
Bayern higher than PSG.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Fri, 9 May 2025 14:55:08 +0000, MH wrote:

After the SFs

-26.654    MH
-27.247    Collective Consciousness
-27.331    Werner Pichler
-27.487    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-27.504    Futbolmetrix
-27.930    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-29.769    Jesus Petry
-30.498    Agnostic


Not a lot of suspense left. MH wins the SophCon regardless of the
outcome of the final. Congrats! (However, Werner tops the Brier and RPS
rankings)

Very surprised by this, as I was not all that optimistic about either
team's chances (.08 for Inter, .05 for PSG) and had rated Barcelona, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Atalanta more highly than either of them, and
Bayern higher than PSG.

Obviously others must have been even more wrong, or more wrong in other
places. In fact, you did lose a bit relative to the field on Inter and
PSG (0.0967 and 0.0549 probability of winning according to Collective Consciousness), but you gained a lot elsewhere. Your three biggest
gainers were:

Bayern +0.474 contribution to your score over CC
Real Madrid +0.297
Club Brugge +0.295


Your three biggest losers:
Liverpool -0.363
Milan -0.300
Feyenoord -0.199

I have added a spreadsheet "MH vs CC" on the Google Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing


I've also added a "WP vs CC" sheet to see where Werner gained relative
to CC in terms of Brier and RPS:

Biggest gainers (biggest negative values):
PSG -0.650
Milan -0.233
Feyenoord -0.177

Biggest losers:
Barcelona 0.317
Liverpool 0.241
Inter 0.164

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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