I seem to be less interested in the start of the UCl than I normally am.
There is not one good looking match tomorrow. And tey got three days of mathces and noen of them look interesting. This new adding teams
thing has not worked.
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there still are about 800 games to go.
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there
still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>> still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
minutes because of the new system?
Ciao,
Werner
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>> still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
minutes because of the new system?
Ciao,
Werner
On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>>> still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
minutes because of the new system?
COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top
24, if not in the top 16 ?
Just wondering if some middling teams who get off to a good start will
start parking the bus in away games to try to get draws. Away draws are likely to be quite valuable for all but the top 5-6 teams, no ?.
On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:
My feeling is that draws will be of less worth than
before because unlike in a 4-team group you don’t
take points off a direct rival anymore.
Bologna and Shakhtar didn't get the memo (I actually didn't see the
match, so don't know what type of 0-0 it was)
My feeling is that draws will be of less worth than
before because unlike in a 4-team group you don’t
take points off a direct rival anymore.
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>> still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
On 17/09/2024 23.04, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but
there
still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
The goal bonanze seems to have dried up a bit.
On 2024-09-18 5:08 p.m., Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
On 17/09/2024 23.04, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but
there
still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
The goal bonanze seems to have dried up a bit.
Most boring Championsliga group stage ever. And how can I take this
liga seriously when teams like Celtic are winning matches!?!?!??!!?
What a terrible boring match.
MH <[email protected]> wrote:
On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>>>> still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
minutes because of the new system?
COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top
24, if not in the top 16 ?
https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685
On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:
MH <[email protected]> wrote:
On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but >>>>>> there
still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
minutes because of the new system?
COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top >>> 24, if not in the top 16 ?
https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685
I'm getting the following:
<=6 points: qualification probability 0%
7 points: 0.3%
8 points: 8.9%
9 points: 51.1%
10 points: 92.6%
11 points: 99.9%
12+ points: 100%
Top 8 probabilities:
<= 12 points: 0%
13 points: 0.4%
14 points: 11.7%
15 points: 50.4%
16 points: 88.8%
17 points: 99.3%
18 points: 99.9%
19 points: 100%
Matchday 2 has started with two potential upsets. Not since Mercedes
beat Porsche has there been an upset of this magnitude in Stuttgart.
HT scores
VfB 1 - 1 Sparta Praha
Not since Kevin Trapp left the Von Trapp family has there been this
kinda bad news in Salzburg.
Red Bull 0 - 1 Brest.
Arsenal vs PSG probably looks like the MOTD, also today will decide if Dortmund are the New Pretenders.
On 2024-09-22 7:50 p.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:
MH <[email protected]> wrote:
On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final,
but there
still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
minutes because of the new system?
COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of >>>> points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the
top
24, if not in the top 16 ?
https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685
I'm getting the following:
<=6 points: qualification probability 0%
7 points: 0.3%
8 points: 8.9%
9 points: 51.1%
10 points: 92.6%
11 points: 99.9%
12+ points: 100%
Top 8 probabilities:
<= 12 points: 0%
13 points: 0.4%
14 points: 11.7%
15 points: 50.4%
16 points: 88.8%
17 points: 99.3%
18 points: 99.9%
19 points: 100%
On 2024-10-01 1:44 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
Matchday 2 has started with two potential upsets. Not since Mercedes
beat Porsche has there been an upset of this magnitude in Stuttgart.
HT scores
VfB 1 - 1 Sparta Praha
ends 1-1, dissapointing match. Maybe VfB are the New Pretenders.
Not since Kevin Trapp left the Von Trapp family has there been this
kinda bad news in Salzburg.
Red Bull 0 - 1 Brest.
0-4, Ouch, not since the days of Casino Salzburg have they lost so much.
Way to go Werner!
Arsenal vs PSG probably looks like the MOTD, also today will decide if
Dortmund are the New Pretenders.
On 2024-09-22 7:50 p.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:
MH <[email protected]> wrote:
On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, >>>>>>>> but there
still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
minutes because of the new system?
COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of >>>>> points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in
the top
24, if not in the top 16 ?
https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685
I'm getting the following:
<=6 points: qualification probability 0%
7 points: 0.3%
8 points: 8.9%
9 points: 51.1%
10 points: 92.6%
11 points: 99.9%
12+ points: 100%
Top 8 probabilities:
<= 12 points: 0%
13 points: 0.4%
14 points: 11.7%
15 points: 50.4%
16 points: 88.8%
17 points: 99.3%
18 points: 99.9%
19 points: 100%
HT Scores
On Tue, 1 Oct 2024 19:55:34 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
HT Scores
10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.
On 2024-10-01 1:44 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
Matchday 2 has started with two potential upsets. Not since Mercedes
beat Porsche has there been an upset of this magnitude in Stuttgart.
HT scores
VfB 1 - 1 Sparta Praha
ends 1-1, dissapointing match. Maybe VfB are the New Pretenders.
Not since Kevin Trapp left the Von Trapp family has there been this
kinda bad news in Salzburg.
Red Bull 0 - 1 Brest.
0-4, Ouch, not since the days of Casino Salzburg have they lost so much.
Way to go Werner!
10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.
On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.
An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12 than
what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage
Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.
On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.
An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two
matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12 than
what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage
Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.
An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact,
Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination
(Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
Bologna the biggest losers so far.
How do you lead 2-0 with 30 mins left and lose 5-2? Pretenders!
On 2024-10-04 7:21 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that >>>> it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.
An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two
matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12 than >>> what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage
Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.
An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact,
Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination
(Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
Bologna the biggest losers so far.
SO after week 3 of the Championsliga, Aston Villa are top of the liga.
Now based on the leaders from week one and week two, I have to assume
they are Pretenders like the other two.
Meanwhile at the other end of the table, if your club is located close
to Vienna, you are probably in last place and have not won a game, or
maybe you are part of the Red Bull family of Vodka mixers. I dunno, it
is only week 3 of the Championsliga and maybe week 6 or 7 of the other
club ligas and I am already anxiously waiting for the Nationsliga to
come back. Hell, I might even watch the Womens beach football world cup instead of the boring club football leagues.
Club football has become such boring BS now. I mean who writes the scripts for these leagues? Be more imaginative in your writing! And now
the new WWEpl hearthrob is some Sporting Lisbon guy no one has ever
heard of? How do the limeys continue to exist being so damn stupid?
On 2024-10-22 10:12 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
How do you lead 2-0 with 30 mins left and lose 5-2? Pretenders!
On 2024-10-04 7:21 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know
that
it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.
An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two >>>> matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12
than
what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage >>>> Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.
An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact,
Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination
(Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
Bologna the biggest losers so far.
The last day of summer here on the Iceberg ( it is a balmy 16C right
now, supposed to go up to 20C) and the last day before America becomes
Great Again. ANd for those who like the Soap Opera that is club
football, it is the superest liga in the world for Club football!
Actually some interesting matches.
Can Wirtz single handedly lead the Pretenders to victory in Liverpool?
Jon David plays.
An el super classico between Real Madrid and AC milan.
And innit the team that has or had the manager that no one ever heard of
who is going to Man Unt playing as well?
Sooo much drama...
Oh and when you MAGA Mr Trump, try and get some american company to make
a half decent beer. This Sam Adams OKtoberfest bier is crap. Bitburger tastes more like an Okeoterfest Bier than this crap.
On 2024-11-04 10:25 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
SO after week 3 of the Championsliga, Aston Villa are top of the liga.
Now based on the leaders from week one and week two, I have to assume
they are Pretenders like the other two.
Meanwhile at the other end of the table, if your club is located close
to Vienna, you are probably in last place and have not won a game, or
maybe you are part of the Red Bull family of Vodka mixers. I dunno,
it is only week 3 of the Championsliga and maybe week 6 or 7 of the
other club ligas and I am already anxiously waiting for the
Nationsliga to come back. Hell, I might even watch the Womens beach
football world cup instead of the boring club football leagues.
Club football has become such boring BS now. I mean who writes the
scripts for these leagues? Be more imaginative in your writing! And
now the new WWEpl hearthrob is some Sporting Lisbon guy no one has
ever heard of? How do the limeys continue to exist being so damn stupid? >>
On 2024-10-22 10:12 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
How do you lead 2-0 with 30 mins left and lose 5-2? Pretenders!
On 2024-10-04 7:21 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:
10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know >>>>>> that
it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in >>>>>> polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.
An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two >>>>> matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12
than
what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League
stage
Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and >>>>> Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.
An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact, >>>> Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination >>>> (Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
Bologna the biggest losers so far.
Also if you are watching this game you can see they
should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.
Binder Dundat wrote:
Also if you are watching this game you can see they
should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.
José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...
-t irade/a466067120.html
Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.
If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
will come along soon...
Blueshirt wrote:
Binder Dundat wrote:https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
Also if you are watching this game you can see they
should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.
José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...
-t irade/a466067120.html
Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.
If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
will come along soon...
[Corrected link]
https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-tirade/a466067120.html
On 2024-11-05 3:08 p.m., Blueshirt wrote:
Blueshirt wrote:
Binder Dundat wrote:https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a
Also if you are watching this game you can see they
should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.
José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...
t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
-t irade/a466067120.html
Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.
If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
will come along soon...
[Corrected link]
https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-
var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-tirade/
a466067120.html
Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.
Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat that
bald guy coach who coaches Man City.
Oh and Jon David scored again to nake him the greatest Striker in
American history
On 2024-11-05 5:04 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
On 2024-11-05 3:08 p.m., Blueshirt wrote:
Blueshirt wrote:
Binder Dundat wrote:https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a
Also if you are watching this game you can see they
should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.
José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...
t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
-t irade/a466067120.html
Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.
If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
will come along soon...
[Corrected link]
https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-
var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-tirade/
a466067120.html
Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.
he does
But wait Man City lost to the guy who is the greatest amanger in the
history og football. That no one has ever heard of
Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat that
bald guy coach who coaches Man City.
Oh and Jon David scored again to nake him the greatest Striker in
American history
On 2024-11-05 5:38 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
On 2024-11-05 5:04 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
On 2024-11-05 3:08 p.m., Blueshirt wrote:
Blueshirt wrote:
Binder Dundat wrote:https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a
Also if you are watching this game you can see they
should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.
José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...
t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
-t irade/a466067120.html
Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.
If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
will come along soon...
[Corrected link]
https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-
var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-
tirade/ a466067120.html
Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.
he does
But wait Man City lost to the guy who is the greatest amanger in the
history og football. That no one has ever heard of
Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat
that bald guy coach who coaches Man City.
Oh and Jon David scored again to nake him the greatest Striker in
American history
If you did not think that WWEpl and club football is totally pre
scripted, the Man City vs Sporting result should prove to you that it
is. SO now the new guy is this Portugoose guy no one has ever heard
of.. All hail our new leder...whatever your name is
In other pre scripted results, we are Projecting Donald J to
win the USA election.
What is the deal in the USA? Can women still
not vote there?
Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.
Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat that
bald guy coach who coaches Man City.
And what is going on with City? 5 losses in a row - two of
them against Tottenham
On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:
MH <[email protected]> wrote:
On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:
Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but >>>>>> there
still are about 800 games to go.
New UCL format is great!
4.67 goals per match so far.
Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
minutes because of the new system?
COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top >>> 24, if not in the top 16 ?
https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685
I'm getting the following:
<=6 points: qualification probability 0%
7 points: 0.3%
8 points: 8.9%
9 points: 51.1%
10 points: 92.6%
11 points: 99.9%
12+ points: 100%
Top 8 probabilities:
<= 12 points: 0%
13 points: 0.4%
14 points: 11.7%
15 points: 50.4%
16 points: 88.8%
17 points: 99.3%
18 points: 99.9%
19 points: 100%
I'm getting the following:
<=6 points: qualification probability 0%
7 points: 0.3%
8 points: 8.9%
9 points: 51.1%
10 points: 92.6%
11 points: 99.9%
12+ points: 100%
Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
rounds ?
I'm getting the following:
<=6 points: qualification probability 0%
7 points: 0.3%
8 points: 8.9%
9 points: 51.1%
10 points: 92.6%
11 points: 99.9%
12+ points: 100%
Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
rounds ?
I believe the unexpectedly low number of draws has shifted the
qualification threshold to 10 points.
On 2024-12-11 15:40, Futbolmetrix wrote:
<=7 points: qualification probability 0%
8 points: 2.1%
9 points: 24.3%
10 points: 78.2%
11 points: 98.9%
12 points: 99.9%
13+: 100%
Out of curiosity, how do you calculate this ? Just normal odds of wins
and draws at home and away, simulated many times, or is the strength of
the teams also factored in.
On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 8:29:26 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:
I'm getting the following:
<=6 points: qualification probability 0%
7 points: 0.3%
8 points: 8.9%
9 points: 51.1%
10 points: 92.6%
11 points: 99.9%
12+ points: 100%
Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
rounds ?
I believe the unexpectedly low number of draws has shifted the
qualification threshold to 10 points.
Yes, after the end of MD6, I'm getting the following numbers:
<=7 points: qualification probability 0%
8 points: 2.1%
9 points: 24.3%
10 points: 78.2%
11 points: 98.9%
12 points: 99.9%
13+: 100%
Anyway, with the above, Bologna (alas) are out, as are the teams on zero (none of them particularly expected to do well except RBL), and Girona,
Graz, Salzburg and REd Star are looking at very long odds. 8 teams on
13 or more can breathe relatively easily.
The contrasting fortunes of Aston Villa and Brest, on the one hand, and Stuttgart, Bologna, and Girona on the other (all teams I don't think
many expected to qualify for the CL in 2023-2024) are interesting. How
much of this was the draw, do you think? With the old format all would
have been in the bottom pot, i suspect, with not too much chance of
finishing higher than 3rd.
| Sysop: | Keyop |
|---|---|
| Location: | Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, UK |
| Users: | 715 |
| Nodes: | 16 (2 / 14) |
| Uptime: | 20:23:20 |
| Calls: | 12,104 |
| Calls today: | 4 |
| Files: | 15,004 |
| Messages: | 6,518,101 |