• UCL 24

    From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 16 23:01:27 2024
    I seem to be less interested in the start of the UCl than I normally am.
    There is not one good looking match tomorrow. And tey got three days
    of mathces and noen of them look interesting. This new adding teams
    thing has not worked.

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  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Sep 17 14:37:32 2024
    On 2024-09-16 11:01 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    I seem to be less interested in the start of the UCl than I normally am.
     There is not one good looking match tomorrow.   And tey got three days of mathces and noen of them look interesting. This new adding teams
    thing has not worked.

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    I mean come on, San Marino vs Liechtenstein was more interesting than
    these games!

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Sep 17 20:04:12 2024
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Jesper Lauridsen@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Sep 17 22:14:16 2024
    On 17/09/2024 22.04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    How about only playing 45 minutes per match? That way we can watch more matches. Plus some other benefits.

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  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Tue Sep 17 20:47:56 2024
    So these 9-2 type scores shows how competitive the 100 first round games
    will be, yes this new format has changed everything. I can tell you
    right now which teams will be advancing to next round.
    This is nothing but a cash grab by UEFA to make more money with more meaningless games.

    I want to see games like Colo Colo vs River Plate, close games,
    competitive games.

    On 2024-09-17 5:04 p.m., Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>> still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    Ciao,
    Werner

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Tue Sep 17 21:08:10 2024
    On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>> still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
    points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
    Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
    Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top
    24, if not in the top 16 ?

    Just wondering if some middling teams who get off to a good start will
    start parking the bus in away games to try to get draws. Away draws are
    likely to be quite valuable for all but the top 5-6 teams, no ?.


    Ciao,
    Werner

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  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Wed Sep 18 07:22:47 2024
    MH <[email protected]> wrote:
    On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>>> still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
    points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
    Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
    Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top
    24, if not in the top 16 ?

    Just wondering if some middling teams who get off to a good start will
    start parking the bus in away games to try to get draws. Away draws are likely to be quite valuable for all but the top 5-6 teams, no ?.


    https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685

    My feeling is that draws will be of less worth than
    before because unlike in a 4-team group you don’t
    take points off a direct rival anymore.

    You can’t get the 9 points likely needed for qualification with draws -
    three 1-0 wins and six
    heavy defeats would be better.


    Ciao,
    Werner

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  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Wed Sep 18 15:50:07 2024
    On 2024-09-18 3:12 p.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:


    My feeling is that draws will be of less worth than
    before because unlike in a 4-team group you don’t
    take points off a direct rival anymore.

    Bologna and Shakhtar didn't get the memo (I actually didn't see the
    match, so don't know what type of 0-0 it was)

    It was terrible, like all the other matches in the 100 match is supposed
    to be so much more exciting group phase.

    Celtic is actually winning in thier match. unless this is the 1960s,
    this is not a real football liga!

    The match I am watching is Haaland 0 - 0 Inter HT. Yeah boring as the
    score suggests. Actually Inter doing a good job, almost an Italian job,
    on Haaland.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Wed Sep 18 19:12:20 2024
    On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:


    My feeling is that draws will be of less worth than
    before because unlike in a 4-team group you don’t
    take points off a direct rival anymore.

    Bologna and Shakhtar didn't get the memo (I actually didn't see the
    match, so don't know what type of 0-0 it was)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Jesper Lauridsen@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Wed Sep 18 23:08:00 2024
    On 17/09/2024 23.04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>> still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    The goal bonanze seems to have dried up a bit.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Jesper Lauridsen on Wed Sep 18 17:19:12 2024
    On 2024-09-18 5:08 p.m., Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
    On 17/09/2024 23.04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but
    there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    The goal bonanze seems to have dried up a bit.



    Most boring Championsliga group stage ever. And how can I take this
    liga seriously when teams like Celtic are winning matches!?!?!??!!?

    What a terrible boring match.

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Thu Sep 19 18:11:18 2024
    On 2024-09-18 5:19 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-09-18 5:08 p.m., Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
    On 17/09/2024 23.04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but
    there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    The goal bonanze seems to have dried up a bit.



    Most boring Championsliga group stage ever.  And how can I take this
    liga seriously when teams like Celtic are winning matches!?!?!??!!?

    What a terrible boring match.


    What is it with WWEpl teams playing 0-0 draws? They are more goal shy
    and boring than the English national team.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Sun Sep 22 23:50:31 2024
    On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    MH <[email protected]> wrote:
    On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but there >>>>> still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
    points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
    Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
    Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top
    24, if not in the top 16 ?


    https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability 0%
    7 points: 0.3%
    8 points: 8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%


    Top 8 probabilities:
    <= 12 points: 0%
    13 points: 0.4%
    14 points: 11.7%
    15 points: 50.4%
    16 points: 88.8%
    17 points: 99.3%
    18 points: 99.9%
    19 points: 100%

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  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Oct 1 13:44:40 2024
    Matchday 2 has started with two potential upsets. Not since Mercedes
    beat Porsche has there been an upset of this magnitude in Stuttgart.

    HT scores
    VfB 1 - 1 Sparta Praha

    Not since Kevin Trapp left the Von Trapp family has there been this
    kinda bad news in Salzburg.
    Red Bull 0 - 1 Brest.

    Arsenal vs PSG probably looks like the MOTD, also today will decide if
    Dortmund are the New Pretenders.


    On 2024-09-22 7:50 p.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    MH <[email protected]> wrote:
    On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but >>>>>> there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
    points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
    Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
    Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top >>> 24, if not in the top 16 ?


    https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%


    Top 8 probabilities:
    <= 12 points:  0%
    13 points: 0.4%
    14 points: 11.7%
    15 points: 50.4%
    16 points: 88.8%
    17 points: 99.3%
    18 points: 99.9%
    19 points: 100%

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Oct 1 14:44:05 2024
    On 2024-10-01 1:44 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    Matchday 2 has started with two potential upsets.  Not since Mercedes
    beat Porsche has there been an upset of this magnitude in Stuttgart.

    HT scores
    VfB 1 - 1 Sparta Praha

    ends 1-1, dissapointing match. Maybe VfB are the New Pretenders.



    Not since Kevin Trapp left the Von Trapp family has there been this
    kinda bad news in Salzburg.
    Red Bull 0 - 1 Brest.

    0-4, Ouch, not since the days of Casino Salzburg have they lost so much.
    Way to go Werner!



    Arsenal vs PSG probably looks like the MOTD, also today will decide if Dortmund are the New Pretenders.


    On 2024-09-22 7:50 p.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    MH <[email protected]> wrote:
    On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final,
    but there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of >>>> points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
    Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
    Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the
    top
    24, if not in the top 16 ?


    https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%


    Top 8 probabilities:
    <= 12 points:  0%
    13 points: 0.4%
    14 points: 11.7%
    15 points: 50.4%
    16 points: 88.8%
    17 points: 99.3%
    18 points: 99.9%
    19 points: 100%


    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Oct 1 15:55:34 2024
    HT Scores

    HT
    Arsenal
    2
    PSG
    0

    Was thinking this might be a closer match, but this is not the same PSG
    as old. No Messi, no Neymar, no Mbappe, not even Dembele, who is not
    even traveling cus apparently he took exception to being subbed off in
    his last match. I guess he is trying to be the new Mbappe.

    HT
    Barcelona
    3
    Young Boys
    0

    HT
    Dortmund
    5
    Celtic
    1

    Maybe we will not be labeling them them The New Pretenders yet.

    HT
    Inter
    1
    Red Star Belgrade
    0

    HT
    Leverkusen
    0
    AC Milan
    0

    I am of that age where it is hard for me to see Bayer as favourites over
    AC Milan. Probably switch to this match for the 2nd half

    HT
    PSV
    1
    Sporting
    0

    HT
    Slovan Bratislava
    0
    Man City
    2

    No goals by Haaland, I repeat, no goals by Haaland



    On 2024-10-01 2:44 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-10-01 1:44 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    Matchday 2 has started with two potential upsets.  Not since Mercedes
    beat Porsche has there been an upset of this magnitude in Stuttgart.

    HT scores
    VfB 1 - 1 Sparta Praha

    ends 1-1, dissapointing match.  Maybe VfB are the New Pretenders.



    Not since Kevin Trapp left the Von Trapp family has there been this
    kinda bad news in Salzburg.
    Red Bull 0 - 1 Brest.

    0-4, Ouch, not since the days of Casino Salzburg have they lost so much.
     Way to go Werner!



    Arsenal vs PSG probably looks like the MOTD, also today will decide if
    Dortmund are the New Pretenders.


    On 2024-09-22 7:50 p.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    MH <[email protected]> wrote:
    On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, >>>>>>>> but there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of >>>>> points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
    Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
    Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in
    the top
    24, if not in the top 16 ?


    https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%


    Top 8 probabilities:
    <= 12 points:  0%
    13 points: 0.4%
    14 points: 11.7%
    15 points: 50.4%
    16 points: 88.8%
    17 points: 99.3%
    18 points: 99.9%
    19 points: 100%



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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Wed Oct 2 21:07:04 2024
    On Tue, 1 Oct 2024 19:55:34 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    HT Scores

    10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
    it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
    polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Wed Oct 2 21:19:02 2024
    On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Tue, 1 Oct 2024 19:55:34 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    HT Scores

    10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
    it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
    polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.

    Aston Villa - Bayern 1-0 and Lille- Real Madrid 1-0 also notable results

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Thu Oct 3 18:14:18 2024
    Binder Dundat <[email protected]> wrote:
    On 2024-10-01 1:44 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    Matchday 2 has started with two potential upsets.  Not since Mercedes
    beat Porsche has there been an upset of this magnitude in Stuttgart.

    HT scores
    VfB 1 - 1 Sparta Praha

    ends 1-1, dissapointing match. Maybe VfB are the New Pretenders.



    Not since Kevin Trapp left the Von Trapp family has there been this
    kinda bad news in Salzburg.
    Red Bull 0 - 1 Brest.

    0-4, Ouch, not since the days of Casino Salzburg have they lost so much.
    Way to go Werner!

    I have tickets for the other CL matches in Klagenfurt.
    It’s quite a long drive for a lacklustre 0-1 defeat, but
    still better than what I would’ve got in Salzburg.

    Ciao,
    Werner

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Thu Oct 3 19:07:27 2024
    On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
    it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
    polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.

    An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
    predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two
    matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12 than
    what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage
    Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
    Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri Oct 4 11:21:58 2024
    On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
    it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
    polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.

    An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
    predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12 than
    what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage
    Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
    Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.

    An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact,
    Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination
    (Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
    Bologna the biggest losers so far.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Oct 22 22:12:33 2024
    How do you lead 2-0 with 30 mins left and lose 5-2? Pretenders!


    On 2024-10-04 7:21 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that
    it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
    polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.

    An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
    predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two
    matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12 than
    what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage
    Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
    Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.

    An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact,
    Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination
    (Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
    Bologna the biggest losers so far.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Mon Nov 4 22:25:45 2024
    SO after week 3 of the Championsliga, Aston Villa are top of the liga.
    Now based on the leaders from week one and week two, I have to assume
    they are Pretenders like the other two.

    Meanwhile at the other end of the table, if your club is located close
    to Vienna, you are probably in last place and have not won a game, or
    maybe you are part of the Red Bull family of Vodka mixers. I dunno, it
    is only week 3 of the Championsliga and maybe week 6 or 7 of the other
    club ligas and I am already anxiously waiting for the Nationsliga to
    come back. Hell, I might even watch the Womens beach football world cup instead of the boring club football leagues.

    Club football has become such boring BS now. I mean who writes the
    scripts for these leagues? Be more imaginative in your writing! And now
    the new WWEpl hearthrob is some Sporting Lisbon guy no one has ever
    heard of? How do the limeys continue to exist being so damn stupid?

    On 2024-10-22 10:12 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    How do you lead 2-0 with 30 mins left and lose 5-2?  Pretenders!


    On 2024-10-04 7:21 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know that >>>> it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
    polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.

    An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
    predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two
    matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12 than >>> what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage
    Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
    Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.

    An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact,
    Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination
    (Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
    Bologna the biggest losers so far.


    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Nov 5 14:12:32 2024
    The last day of summer here on the Iceberg ( it is a balmy 16C right
    now, supposed to go up to 20C) and the last day before America becomes
    Great Again. ANd for those who like the Soap Opera that is club
    football, it is the superest liga in the world for Club football!

    Actually some interesting matches.

    Can Wirtz single handedly lead the Pretenders to victory in Liverpool?

    Jon David plays.

    An el super classico between Real Madrid and AC milan.

    And innit the team that has or had the manager that no one ever heard of
    who is going to Man Unt playing as well?

    Sooo much drama...

    Oh and when you MAGA Mr Trump, try and get some american company to make
    a half decent beer. This Sam Adams OKtoberfest bier is crap. Bitburger
    tastes more like an Okeoterfest Bier than this crap.




    On 2024-11-04 10:25 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    SO after week 3 of the Championsliga, Aston Villa are top of the liga.
    Now based on the leaders from week one and week two, I have to assume
    they are Pretenders like the other two.

    Meanwhile at the other end of the table, if your club is located close
    to Vienna, you are probably in last place and have not won a game, or
    maybe you are part of the Red Bull family of Vodka mixers.  I dunno, it
    is only week 3 of the Championsliga and maybe week 6 or 7 of the other
    club ligas and I am already  anxiously waiting for the Nationsliga to
    come back.  Hell, I might even watch the Womens beach football world cup instead of the boring club football leagues.

    Club football has become such boring BS  now.  I mean who writes the scripts for these leagues? Be more imaginative in your writing! And now
    the new WWEpl hearthrob is some Sporting Lisbon guy no one has ever
    heard of?  How do the limeys continue to exist being so damn stupid?

    On 2024-10-22 10:12 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    How do you lead 2-0 with 30 mins left and lose 5-2?  Pretenders!


    On 2024-10-04 7:21 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know
    that
    it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in
    polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.

    An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
    predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two >>>> matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12
    than
    what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League stage >>>> Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and
    Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.

    An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact,
    Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination
    (Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
    Bologna the biggest losers so far.



    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Nov 5 14:24:54 2024
    For you club football supporters, the biggest question of the day
    probably was, is PSV better than Girona? and the answer is yes. Also if
    you are watching this game you can see they should no longer allow
    Englishmen to ref football matches.


    On 2024-11-05 2:12 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    The last day of summer here on the Iceberg ( it is a balmy 16C right
    now, supposed to go up to 20C) and the last day before America becomes
    Great Again.  ANd for those who like the Soap Opera that is club
    football, it is the superest liga in the world for Club football!

    Actually some interesting matches.

    Can Wirtz single handedly lead the Pretenders to victory in Liverpool?

    Jon David plays.

    An el super classico between Real Madrid and AC milan.

    And innit the team that has or had the manager that no one ever heard of
    who is going to Man Unt playing as well?

    Sooo much drama...

    Oh and when you MAGA Mr Trump, try and get some american company to make
    a half decent beer.  This Sam Adams OKtoberfest bier is crap.  Bitburger tastes more like an Okeoterfest Bier than this crap.




    On 2024-11-04 10:25 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    SO after week 3 of the Championsliga, Aston Villa are top of the liga.
    Now based on the leaders from week one and week two, I have to assume
    they are Pretenders like the other two.

    Meanwhile at the other end of the table, if your club is located close
    to Vienna, you are probably in last place and have not won a game, or
    maybe you are part of the Red Bull family of Vodka mixers.  I dunno,
    it is only week 3 of the Championsliga and maybe week 6 or 7 of the
    other club ligas and I am already  anxiously waiting for the
    Nationsliga to come back.  Hell, I might even watch the Womens beach
    football world cup instead of the boring club football leagues.

    Club football has become such boring BS  now.  I mean who writes the
    scripts for these leagues? Be more imaginative in your writing! And
    now the new WWEpl hearthrob is some Sporting Lisbon guy no one has
    ever heard of?  How do the limeys continue to exist being so damn stupid? >>
    On 2024-10-22 10:12 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    How do you lead 2-0 with 30 mins left and lose 5-2?  Pretenders!


    On 2024-10-04 7:21 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Thu, 3 Oct 2024 19:07:27 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 21:07:04 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    10-men Juve comes back from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in Leipzig. I know >>>>>> that
    it's not nice to say positive things about the Champions League in >>>>>> polite society, but that was a fantastic game of football.

    An interesting factoid: I was playing around with the SophCon
    predictions, and it turns out that Juve, despite winning its first two >>>>> matches, has now a higher probability of finishing in the bottom 12
    than
    what it had at the beginning of the competition (using pre-League
    stage
    Elo ratings). The good results by outsiders such as Lille, Brest and >>>>> Aston Villa are having a bigger weight than Juve's own good start.

    An incorrect factoid, there was a mistake in my calculations. In fact, >>>> Juve has seen the third biggest drop in the probability of elimination >>>> (Brest and Benfica are 1 and 2). Salzburg, Girona, RB Leipzig and
    Bologna the biggest losers so far.




    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Blueshirt@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Nov 5 19:46:35 2024
    Binder Dundat wrote:

    Also if you are watching this game you can see they
    should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.

    José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
    refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream of
    upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...

    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-t irade/a466067120.htmlHis

    Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.

    If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
    will come along soon...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Blueshirt@21:1/5 to Blueshirt on Tue Nov 5 20:08:47 2024
    Blueshirt wrote:

    Binder Dundat wrote:

    Also if you are watching this game you can see they
    should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.

    José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
    refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
    of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...


    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
    -t irade/a466067120.html

    Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.

    If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
    will come along soon...

    [Corrected link]

    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-tirade/a466067120.html

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Blueshirt on Tue Nov 5 17:04:31 2024
    On 2024-11-05 3:08 p.m., Blueshirt wrote:
    Blueshirt wrote:

    Binder Dundat wrote:

    Also if you are watching this game you can see they
    should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.

    José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
    refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
    of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...


    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
    -t irade/a466067120.html

    Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.

    If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
    will come along soon...

    [Corrected link]

    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-tirade/a466067120.html


    Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.

    Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat that
    bald guy coach who coaches Man City.

    Oh and Jon David scored again to nake him the greatest Striker in
    American history

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Nov 5 17:38:42 2024
    On 2024-11-05 5:04 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 3:08 p.m., Blueshirt wrote:
    Blueshirt wrote:

    Binder Dundat wrote:

    Also if you are watching this game you can see they
    should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.

    José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
    refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
    of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...


    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a
    t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
    -t irade/a466067120.html

    Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.

    If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
    will come along soon...

    [Corrected link]

    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-
    var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-tirade/
    a466067120.html


    Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.

    he does

    But wait Man City lost to the guy who is the greatest amanger in the
    history og football. That no one has ever heard of

    Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat that
    bald guy coach who coaches Man City.

    Oh and Jon David scored again to nake him the greatest Striker in
    American history

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Tue Nov 5 20:49:48 2024
    On 2024-11-05 5:38 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 5:04 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 3:08 p.m., Blueshirt wrote:
    Blueshirt wrote:

    Binder Dundat wrote:

    Also if you are watching this game you can see they
    should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.

    José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
    refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
    of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...


    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a
    t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
    -t irade/a466067120.html

    Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.

    If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
    will come along soon...

    [Corrected link]

    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-
    var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-tirade/
    a466067120.html


    Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.

    he does

    But wait Man City lost to the guy who is the greatest amanger in the
    history og football. That no one has ever heard of

    Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat that
    bald guy coach who coaches Man City.

    Oh and Jon David scored again to nake him the greatest Striker in
    American history



    If you did not think that WWEpl and club football is totally pre
    scripted, the Man City vs Sporting result should prove to you that it
    is. SO now the new guy is this Portugoose guy no one has ever heard
    of.. All hail our new leder...whatever your name is

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Wed Nov 6 08:08:05 2024
    On 2024-11-05 8:49 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 5:38 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 5:04 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 3:08 p.m., Blueshirt wrote:
    Blueshirt wrote:

    Binder Dundat wrote:

    Also if you are watching this game you can see they
    should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.

    José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
    refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
    of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...


    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a
    t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
    -t irade/a466067120.html

    Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.

    If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
    will come along soon...

    [Corrected link]

    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-
    var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-
    tirade/ a466067120.html


    Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.

    he does

    But wait Man City lost to the guy who is the greatest amanger in the
    history og football. That no one has ever heard of

    Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat
    that bald guy coach who coaches Man City.

    Oh and Jon David scored again to nake him the greatest Striker in
    American history



    If you did not think that WWEpl and club football is totally pre
    scripted, the Man City vs Sporting result should prove to you that it
    is.  SO now the new guy is this Portugoose guy no one has ever heard
    of.. All hail our new leder...whatever your name is


    In other pre scripted results, we are Projecting Donald J to win the USA election. What is the deal in the USA? Can women still not vote there?

    Meanwhile all Bundesliga clubs are proving to be Pretenders and we are projecting all of them to be eliminated in this round

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Blueshirt@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Wed Nov 6 13:16:46 2024
    Binder Dundat wrote:


    In other pre scripted results, we are Projecting Donald J to
    win the USA election.

    There's an election going on over there? It seems like it was a
    cakewalk that was taking place.

    What is the deal in the USA? Can women still
    not vote there?

    They did vote... they voted for Donald Trump!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Jesper Lauridsen@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Sun Nov 24 23:03:48 2024
    On 05/11/2024 23.04, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.

    During LIV - LEV (second half), the EPL obsessed commentators were
    talking about this showed the difference between top of the EPL and top
    of the BL.

    At the samme time...

    Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat that
    bald guy coach who coaches Man City.

    So he can trash City with Sporting, but not beat Ipswich with Manchester United?

    And what is going on with City? 5 losses in a row - two of them against *Tottenham*

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Blueshirt@21:1/5 to Jesper Lauridsen on Sun Nov 24 23:11:06 2024
    Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

    And what is going on with City? 5 losses in a row - two of
    them against Tottenham

    I'd be wondering more about what is up with Tottenham?

    I hope the Premier League are carrying out random drug tests and
    checking betting patterns... it smells fishy to me!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Dec 10 13:14:18 2024
    On 2024-09-22 17:50, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    MH <[email protected]> wrote:
    On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but >>>>>> there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
    points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
    Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
    Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top >>> 24, if not in the top 16 ?


    https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%

    Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
    rounds ?


    Top 8 probabilities:
    <= 12 points:  0%
    13 points: 0.4%
    14 points: 11.7%
    15 points: 50.4%
    16 points: 88.8%
    17 points: 99.3%
    18 points: 99.9%

    liverpool are there already.

    19 points: 100%

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Tue Dec 10 20:50:32 2024
    On Tue, 10 Dec 2024 20:14:18 +0000, MH wrote:


    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%

    Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
    rounds ?

    I'll look into this.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Wed Dec 11 22:40:53 2024
    On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 8:29:26 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%

    Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
    rounds ?

    I believe the unexpectedly low number of draws has shifted the
    qualification threshold to 10 points.


    Yes, after the end of MD6, I'm getting the following numbers:

    <=7 points: qualification probability  0%
    8 points:  2.1%
    9 points: 24.3%
    10 points: 78.2%
    11 points: 98.9%
    12 points: 99.9%
    13+: 100%

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 12 00:07:43 2024
    On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 23:59:55 +0000, MH wrote:

    On 2024-12-11 15:40, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    <=7 points: qualification probability  0%
    8 points:  2.1%
    9 points: 24.3%
    10 points: 78.2%
    11 points: 98.9%
    12 points: 99.9%
    13+: 100%

    Out of curiosity, how do you calculate this ? Just normal odds of wins
    and draws at home and away, simulated many times, or is the strength of
    the teams also factored in.

    The same way I generate the SophCon predictions for the bots. The
    probabilities above are based on ClubElo ratings at the beginning of the campaign. With those in hand, you can simulate the outcomes of every
    match (not just W-D-L, but actual scores), do that 10,000 times, and
    then look at the number of times that a team that finishes on N points
    finishes in the top 24 or not.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Wed Dec 11 16:59:55 2024
    On 2024-12-11 15:40, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 8:29:26 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%

    Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
    rounds ?

    I believe the unexpectedly low number of draws has shifted the
    qualification threshold to 10 points.


    Yes, after the end of MD6, I'm getting the following numbers:

    <=7 points: qualification probability  0%
    8 points:  2.1%
    9 points: 24.3%
    10 points: 78.2%
    11 points: 98.9%
    12 points: 99.9%
    13+: 100%

    Out of curiosity, how do you calculate this ? Just normal odds of wins
    and draws at home and away, simulated many times, or is the strength of
    the teams also factored in.

    Anyway, with the above, Bologna (alas) are out, as are the teams on zero
    (none of them particularly expected to do well except RBL), and Girona,
    Graz, Salzburg and REd Star are looking at very long odds. 8 teams on
    13 or more can breathe relatively easily.

    The contrasting fortunes of Aston Villa and Brest, on the one hand, and Stuttgart, Bologna, and Girona on the other (all teams I don't think
    many expected to qualify for the CL in 2023-2024) are interesting. How
    much of this was the draw, do you think? With the old format all would
    have been in the bottom pot, i suspect, with not too much chance of
    finishing higher than 3rd.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 12 02:37:08 2024
    On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 23:59:55 +0000, MH wrote:


    Anyway, with the above, Bologna (alas) are out, as are the teams on zero (none of them particularly expected to do well except RBL), and Girona,
    Graz, Salzburg and REd Star are looking at very long odds. 8 teams on
    13 or more can breathe relatively easily.

    My sims say that Bologna still has a 0.0004 chance of making it to the
    next round, the team with the lowest probability of those still with a theoretical chance.


    The contrasting fortunes of Aston Villa and Brest, on the one hand, and Stuttgart, Bologna, and Girona on the other (all teams I don't think
    many expected to qualify for the CL in 2023-2024) are interesting. How
    much of this was the draw, do you think? With the old format all would
    have been in the bottom pot, i suspect, with not too much chance of
    finishing higher than 3rd.

    Hard to say. Some teams had a tough draw and have in fact underperformed
    (PSG, Real Madrid), but others (Liverpool, for example) have done well
    despite the thought draw.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)