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  • Copa America 2024 Sophisticated Prediction Contest

    From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 10 12:08:32 2024
    Download spreadsheet here, send predictions before kickoff of the first
    match:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/06/07/copa-america-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest/

    Note that the two sides of the draw don't cross until the final, so
    there are a lot of extra restrictions.

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Wed Jun 12 21:12:22 2024
    On 2024-06-10 06:08, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheet here, send predictions before kickoff of the first match:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/06/07/copa-america-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest/

    Note that the two sides of the draw don't cross until the final, so
    there are a lot of extra restrictions.

    So I have one of my teams (Scotland) kicking off a major continental competition (first match) on Friday the 14th against the hosts and
    serious contenders, and the other (Canada) kicking off a major
    continental competition the following Thursday against the world and continental champs. Can't say the win vs. Gibraltar and draw vs.
    Finland or the loss vs. the Netherlands and draw vs. France inspires the slightest bit of confidence in me. On the other hand, the last time
    both were involved in a major competition at the same time was the 1986
    world cup.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jun 13 22:08:56 2024
    MH wrote:

    On 2024-06-10 06:08, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheet here, send predictions before kickoff of the first
    match:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/06/07/copa-america-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest

    Entries so far:

    S01 Agnostic
    S02 KonakaLab
    S03 Jesus Petry
    S04 Futbolmetrix

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Wed Jun 19 20:19:18 2024
    Futbolmetrix wrote:

    MH wrote:

    On 2024-06-10 06:08, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheet here, send predictions before kickoff of the first
    match:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/06/07/copa-america-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest

    Entries so far:

    S01 Agnostic
    S02 KonakaLab
    S03 Jesus Petry
    S04 Futbolmetrix


    Slightly more than 24 hours to kickoff. Entries so far:

    S01 Agnostic
    S02 KonakaLab
    S03 Jesus Petry
    S04 Futbolmetrix
    S05 Elo (by FM)
    S06 FIFA (by FM)
    S07 TransferMarkt (by(FM)
    S08 Luke Benz
    S09 dopemodels.info

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jun 19 23:14:58 2024
    Lléo wrote:

    I thought I had sent you mine, when I sent my Euro entry. I'll send it
    again, just in case.

    Yes, you did send it, sorry about that. Will add it to the spreadsheet.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jul 3 16:21:11 2024
    Standings after the group stage:

    Elo (by FM) -7.608
    Projection Room Forecast -7.725
    dopemodels.info -7.751
    KonakaLab -8.040
    Lléo -8.575
    CollectiveConsciousness -8.621
    Jesus Petry -8.661
    MH -8.783
    Stephen K -8.912
    Luke Benz -8.979
    Jesper -9.494
    kikijones2001 -9.583
    Futbolmetrix -10.040
    TransferMarkt (by(FM) -10.497
    FIFA (by FM) -10.825
    Agnostic -11.090
    itschar1ie vibes -294.731

    My Elo model (based on eloratings.net) in first place, but still very
    tight. Interestingly, Elo by FM has been doing very poorly in the Euro

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Sun Jul 7 12:13:59 2024
    On Wed, 3 Jul 2024 16:21:11 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Standings after the group stage:

    Standings after the QFs:

    dopemodels.info -12.141
    Projection Room Forecast -12.171
    Elo (by FM) -12.198
    KonakaLab -12.757
    Lléo -12.912
    Luke Benz -13.648
    Jesus Petry -13.703
    Stephen K -13.828
    CollectiveConsciousness -13.854
    kikijones2001 -14.711
    MH -14.741
    TransferMarkt (by(FM) -15.328
    Futbolmetrix -15.549
    FIFA (by FM) -15.598
    Jesper -15.717
    Agnostic -16.636
    itschar1ie vibes -517.165

    OK, so maybe we humans are not going to survive after all...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Sun Jul 7 16:28:53 2024
    On Sun, 7 Jul 2024 12:13:59 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Wed, 3 Jul 2024 16:21:11 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Standings after the group stage:

    Standings after the QFs:

    dopemodels.info -12.141
    Projection Room Forecast -12.171
    Elo (by FM) -12.198
    KonakaLab -12.757
    Lléo -12.912
    Luke Benz -13.648
    Jesus Petry -13.703
    Stephen K -13.828
    CollectiveConsciousness -13.854
    kikijones2001 -14.711
    MH -14.741
    TransferMarkt (by(FM) -15.328
    Futbolmetrix -15.549
    FIFA (by FM) -15.598
    Jesper -15.717
    Agnostic -16.636
    itschar1ie vibes -517.165

    OK, so maybe we humans are not going to survive after all...

    If I've done my calculations correctly, it will be between dopemodels
    and Projection Room Forecast, but Lleo still has a chance to win it all:
    he just needs Canada prevailing over Colombia in the final...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Sun Jul 7 18:44:47 2024
    Futbolmetrix <[email protected]> wrote:
    On Sun, 7 Jul 2024 12:13:59 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Wed, 3 Jul 2024 16:21:11 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Standings after the group stage:

    Standings after the QFs:

    dopemodels.info -12.141
    Projection Room Forecast -12.171
    Elo (by FM) -12.198
    KonakaLab -12.757
    Lléo -12.912
    Luke Benz -13.648
    Jesus Petry -13.703
    Stephen K -13.828
    CollectiveConsciousness -13.854
    kikijones2001 -14.711
    MH -14.741
    TransferMarkt (by(FM) -15.328
    Futbolmetrix -15.549
    FIFA (by FM) -15.598
    Jesper -15.717
    Agnostic -16.636
    itschar1ie vibes -517.165

    OK, so maybe we humans are not going to survive after all...

    If I've done my calculations correctly, it will be between dopemodels
    and Projection Room Forecast, but Lleo still has a chance to win it all:
    he just needs Canada prevailing over Colombia in the final...


    So do humans _also_ do better when there are huge
    upsets?

    Or perhaps that’s just a result of us being more likely
    to ‘misjuggle‘ small probabilities…


    Ciao,
    Werner

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Thu Jul 11 11:09:07 2024
    On Sun, 7 Jul 2024 18:44:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    Futbolmetrix <[email protected]> wrote:
    On Sun, 7 Jul 2024 12:13:59 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

    On Wed, 3 Jul 2024 16:21:11 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Standings after the group stage:

    Standings after the QFs:


    Standings after the semifinals:

    dopemodels.info -13.970
    Elo (by FM) -14.077
    Projection Room Forecast -14.270
    KonakaLab -14.477
    Lléo -15.696
    Stephen K -15.706
    Luke Benz -15.771
    Jesus Petry -15.979
    CollectiveConsciousness -16.021
    kikijones2001 -16.902
    MH -17.454
    FIFA (by FM) -17.553
    Futbolmetrix -17.754
    TransferMarkt (by(FM) -17.765
    Jesper -18.094
    Agnostic -19.408
    itschar1ie vibes -590.155


    dopemodels wins this based on the traditional score
    Projection Room Forecast wins it based on the Brier score
    Rank Probability Scoring: dopemodels if Argentina win, Elo (by FM) if
    Colombia win.

    Vamos Colombia!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Mon Jul 15 08:44:31 2024
    On 6/10/2024 8:08 AM, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheet here, send predictions before kickoff of the first match:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/06/07/copa-america-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest/


    Copa 2024 SophCon final standings:

    dopemodels.info -15.006
    Elo (by FM) -15.187
    KonakaLab -15.267
    Projection Room Forecast -15.457
    Stephen K -16.596
    Luke Benz -17.061
    Lléo -17.082
    CollectiveConsciousness -17.158
    Jesus Petry -17.365
    kikijones2001 -17.692
    FIFA (by FM) -18.524
    MH -18.841
    Futbolmetrix -18.989
    TransferMarkt (by(FM) -19.021
    Jesper -19.223
    Agnostic -20.794
    itschar1ie vibes -590.848

    Congrats to dopemodels!


    Brier score
    ------------
    Projection Room Forecast 8.257
    Elo (by FM) 8.311
    dopemodels.info 8.393
    KonakaLab 8.622
    Jesus Petry 9.030
    Luke Benz 9.164
    Stephen K 9.169
    Lléo 9.178
    CollectiveConsciousness 9.191
    kikijones2001 9.527
    MH 9.671
    FIFA (by FM) 9.890
    Jesper 10.012
    TransferMarkt (by(FM) 10.038
    Futbolmetrix 10.188
    Agnostic 10.625
    itschar1ie vibes 16.000



    Ranked Probability Scoring
    --------------------------
    dopemodels.info 5.735
    Elo (by FM) 5.820
    Projection Room Forecast 5.991
    KonakaLab 6.057
    Lléo 6.880
    CollectiveConsciousness 6.901
    Stephen K 6.939
    Luke Benz 7.123
    Jesus Petry 7.398
    kikijones2001 7.615
    MH 7.784
    TransferMarkt (by(FM) 7.979
    Jesper 8.056
    Futbolmetrix 8.067
    FIFA (by FM) 8.114
    Agnostic 9.688
    itschar1ie vibes 10.000



    More comments here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/07/15/copa-america-2024-sophcon-final-standings/

    Thanks to all for participating!

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