Download spreadsheet here, send entries to [email protected] before kickoff of the first match:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/06/05/euro-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest/

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Entry submitted!

--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

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anders t wrote:

Entry submitted!

Entries so far:

S01 Agnostic
S02 Jesus Petry
S03 KonakaLab
S04 Futbolmetrix
S05 SwissFootballData
S06 Georg Haas
S07 MH
S08 Anders T
S09 goalprojection
S10 Hybrid Model
S11 Bookmaker Consensus
S12 Jesper
S13 Julio Ibáñez
S14 dopemodels.info
S15 Luke Benz
S16 Elo (by FM)
S17 FIFA (by FM)
S18 TransferMarkt (by FM)
S19 kikijones2001

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Futbolmetrix wrote:

anders t wrote:

Entry submitted!

We ended up with 31 entries. Go to link below to see the full list of participants and to download the master spreadsheet.

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/06/15/euro-2024-sophcon-master-spreadsheet/

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Futbolmetrix wrote:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/06/15/euro-2024-sophcon-master-spreadsheet/

(I uploaded a slightly revised version of the master spreadsheet at the
above).

Standings after MD1:

goalprojection -14.223
Silver_aurora -14.608
Jesus Petry -14.917
kikijones2001 -14.919
Bookmaker Consensus -15.007
Anders T -15.124
Agnostic -15.276
Lléo -15.300
Hybrid Model -15.464
Futbolmetrix -15.793
TransferMarkt (by FM) -16.015
FoG -16.044
CollectiveConsciousness -16.125
Zander -16.145
Stephen K -16.262
MH -16.342
FIFA (by FM) -16.396
Luke Benz -16.433
Paul Steele -16.447
Devlin Sullivan -16.658
AI-lbania -17.050
Georg Haas -17.388
LukaszBoz -17.423
Jesper -18.520
SwissFootballData -18.595
Elo (by FM) -18.618
Werner Pichler -18.650
RED -18.658
dopemodels.info -19.934
KonakaLab -20.038
Julio Ibáñez -89.151


Only six predictions better than Agnostic so far.

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Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

That goalprojection is looking really tough.

Yes, he holds on to the lead despite Georgia's shock qualification. Nice showing by MH in 3rd place overall.

goalprojection -11.866
Hybrid Model -12.147
MH -12.324
Bookmaker Consensus -12.541
Luke Benz -12.677
Georg Haas -12.715
Zander -12.716
Devlin Sullivan -12.800
Futbolmetrix -12.805
TransferMarkt (by FM) -12.928
Stephen K -12.937
FoG -12.950
CollectiveConsciousness -13.105
Paul Steele -13.143
Silver_aurora -13.402
Jesus Petry -13.498
FIFA (by FM) -13.513
kikijones2001 -13.621
AI-lbania -13.661
Anders T -13.738
RED -13.847
LukaszBoz -13.884
Lléo -13.987
SwissFootballData -14.138
Elo (by FM) -14.208
dopemodels.info -14.428
KonakaLab -14.461
Werner Pichler -14.547
Julio Ibáñez -14.582
Agnostic -15.276
Jesper -17.217

Aggie going down.

Agnostic -15.276
Jesper -17.217

Hmmm...

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Futbolmetrix wrote:

Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

That goalprojection is looking really tough.

Yes, he holds on to the lead despite Georgia's shock qualification. Nice showing by MH in 3rd place overall.

Standings after the round of 16:

goalprojection -20.276
Hybrid Model -20.302
MH -20.534
Julio Ibáñez -20.605
Futbolmetrix -20.805
Zander -21.038
Bookmaker Consensus -21.057
Anders T -21.140
Stephen K -21.236
Paul Steele -21.276
TransferMarkt (by FM) -21.444
Lléo -21.511
Georg Haas -21.524
Luke Benz -21.527
CollectiveConsciousness -21.536
FoG -21.678
Devlin Sullivan -21.753
Jesus Petry -22.206
Werner Pichler -22.299
RED -22.329
FIFA (by FM) -22.662
kikijones2001 -22.757
AI-lbania -22.824
Silver_aurora -23.083
KonakaLab -23.212
SwissFootballData -23.319
Elo (by FM) -23.332
dopemodels.info -23.414
LukaszBoz -23.474
Jesper -26.260
Agnostic -26.367


Four human entries in the top 10 (MH, Futbolmetrix, Julio Ibanez and
Anders), but goalprojection holds on to first place.

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On Wed, 3 Jul 2024 16:18:36 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the QFs:

Anders T -24.392
MH -24.982
Futbolmetrix -25.044
Hybrid Model -25.072
goalprojection -25.234
Julio Ibáñez -25.330
Paul Steele -25.974
Zander -25.999
Bookmaker Consensus -26.046
Stephen K -26.061
Luke Benz -26.155
Werner Pichler -26.169
CollectiveConsciousness -26.183
FoG -26.335
Georg Haas -26.377
TransferMarkt (by FM) -26.425
Lléo -26.569
RED -26.672
Devlin Sullivan -26.747
kikijones2001 -26.992
AI-lbania -27.098
Jesus Petry -27.338
FIFA (by FM) -27.430
KonakaLab -27.698
Elo (by FM) -27.941
SwissFootballData -28.176
dopemodels.info -28.222
LukaszBoz -28.437
Silver_aurora -28.568
Jesper -31.310
Agnostic -31.912

AI has nothing on us humans!

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Futbolmetrix <[email protected]> wrote:

On Wed, 3 Jul 2024 16:18:36 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the QFs:

Anders T -24.392
MH -24.982
Futbolmetrix -25.044
Hybrid Model -25.072
goalprojection -25.234
Julio Ibáñez -25.330
Paul Steele -25.974
Zander -25.999
Bookmaker Consensus -26.046
Stephen K -26.061
Luke Benz -26.155
Werner Pichler -26.169
CollectiveConsciousness -26.183
FoG -26.335
Georg Haas -26.377
TransferMarkt (by FM) -26.425
Lléo -26.569
RED -26.672
Devlin Sullivan -26.747
kikijones2001 -26.992
AI-lbania -27.098
Jesus Petry -27.338
FIFA (by FM) -27.430
KonakaLab -27.698
Elo (by FM) -27.941
SwissFootballData -28.176
dopemodels.info -28.222
LukaszBoz -28.437
Silver_aurora -28.568
Jesper -31.310
Agnostic -31.912

AI has nothing on us humans!

Humans do better when there are no big upsets,
I guess?

Ciao,
Werner

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On Sun, 7 Jul 2024 12:19:51 (UTC), Werner Pichler wrote:

Humans do better when there are no big upsets,

Yes, I think that's correct. Humans understand that to win the SophCon
you have to go a bit stronger on the outcomes that you think are more
likely to happen (or, they just struggle to play around with very small probabilities...)

Anyway, we will have a human winner. MH takes it if we have a France-Netherlands final (whatever the outcome). Any other outcome, it's Anders.

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On Sun, 7 Jul 2024 12:12:15 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 3 Jul 2024 16:18:36 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the QFs:

Standings after the semifinals:

Anders T -26.992
Hybrid Model -27.837
Futbolmetrix -27.897
goalprojection -27.948
Julio Ibáñez -28.153
MH -28.309
Zander -28.553
Luke Benz -28.554
Bookmaker Consensus -28.598
Paul Steele -28.736
Stephen K -28.759
Werner Pichler -28.792
Georg Haas -28.975
CollectiveConsciousness -28.977
FoG -29.047
TransferMarkt (by FM) -29.083
Devlin Sullivan -29.460
RED -29.655
Lléo -29.681
kikijones2001 -29.811
Jesus Petry -30.128
AI-lbania -30.362
FIFA (by FM) -30.407
KonakaLab -30.603
Elo (by FM) -30.897
dopemodels.info -31.157
Silver_aurora -31.181
LukaszBoz -31.338
SwissFootballData -31.368
Jesper -34.082
Agnostic -34.684


Anders takes the crown, congrats!
MH wins the Brier score ranking, Hybrid Model wins the RPS ranking

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Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

On Sun, 7 Jul 2024 12:12:15 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Wed, 3 Jul 2024 16:18:36 (UTC), Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the QFs:

Standings after the semifinals:

Anders T -26.992
Hybrid Model -27.837
Futbolmetrix -27.897
goalprojection -27.948
Julio Ib��ez -28.153
MH -28.309
Zander -28.553
Luke Benz -28.554
Bookmaker Consensus -28.598
Paul Steele -28.736
Stephen K -28.759
Werner Pichler -28.792
Georg Haas -28.975
CollectiveConsciousness -28.977
FoG -29.047
TransferMarkt (by FM) -29.083
Devlin Sullivan -29.460
RED -29.655
Ll�o -29.681
kikijones2001 -29.811
Jesus Petry -30.128
AI-lbania -30.362
FIFA (by FM) -30.407
KonakaLab -30.603
Elo (by FM) -30.897
dopemodels.info -31.157
Silver_aurora -31.181
LukaszBoz -31.338
SwissFootballData -31.368
Jesper -34.082
Agnostic -34.684

Anders takes the crown, congrats!
MH wins the Brier score ranking, Hybrid Model wins the RPS ranking

I am deeply humbled.

Thank all for playing, though. ;-)


--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

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On 6/5/2024 8:57 AM, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Download spreadsheet here, send entries to [email protected] before kickoff of the first match:

Final standings:

Anders T -28.378
Futbolmetrix -29.297
goalprojection -29.323
Hybrid Model -29.344
Julio Ibáñez -29.523
MH -29.695
Luke Benz -30.054
Zander -30.172
Werner Pichler -30.179
Paul Steele -30.250
Bookmaker Consensus -30.262
Stephen K -30.294
CollectiveConsciousness -30.408
Georg Haas -30.473
FoG -30.522
TransferMarkt (by FM) -30.685
RED -30.894
Devlin Sullivan -30.915
Lléo -31.067
kikijones2001 -31.282
Jesus Petry -31.514
KonakaLab -31.876
FIFA (by FM) -31.977
AI-lbania -32.015
Elo (by FM) -32.199
SwissFootballData -32.492
dopemodels.info -32.503
Silver_aurora -32.536
LukaszBoz -32.681
Jesper -35.468
Agnostic -36.071

Congrats, Anders!


Brier score final standings:
----------------------------
MH 15.501
goalprojection 15.770
Anders T 15.901
Futbolmetrix 16.113
Hybrid Model 16.138
Bookmaker Consensus 16.161
Paul Steele 16.328
Jesus Petry 16.349
Zander 16.400
Georg Haas 16.437
Lléo 16.477
Stephen K 16.481
CollectiveConsciousness 16.486
TransferMarkt (by FM) 16.512
Luke Benz 16.540
Devlin Sullivan 16.554
FoG 16.622
Silver_aurora 16.674
LukaszBoz 16.990
FIFA (by FM) 17.083
KonakaLab 17.140
Elo (by FM) 17.156
kikijones2001 17.166
Julio Ibáñez 17.237
RED 17.257
dopemodels.info 17.383
Werner Pichler 17.425
AI-lbania 17.431
Agnostic 17.750
SwissFootballData 17.759
Jesper 19.407


Ranked Probability Scoring final standings -------------------------------------------
Hybrid Model 11.347
goalprojection 11.481
Werner Pichler 11.524
Anders T 11.548
Bookmaker Consensus 11.895
Futbolmetrix 11.899
Paul Steele 11.941
Zander 11.968
Luke Benz 12.049
kikijones2001 12.086
Stephen K 12.110
FoG 12.137
TransferMarkt (by FM) 12.142
CollectiveConsciousness 12.193
Julio Ibáñez 12.284
Georg Haas 12.334
MH 12.377
RED 12.579
Devlin Sullivan 12.664
Lléo 12.884
KonakaLab 12.992
AI-lbania 12.995
Jesus Petry 13.020
FIFA (by FM) 13.148
SwissFootballData 13.348
Elo (by FM) 13.442
dopemodels.info 13.471
Silver_aurora 13.674
LukaszBoz 13.813
Jesper 14.172
Agnostic 16.792


More comments here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/07/15/euro2024-sophcon-final-standings/

Thanks to all for participating!

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Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

On 6/5/2024 8:57 AM, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Download spreadsheet here, send entries to [email protected] before
kickoff of the first match:

Final standings:

Anders T -28.378
Futbolmetrix -29.297
goalprojection -29.323
Hybrid Model -29.344
Julio Ib��ez -29.523
MH -29.695
Luke Benz -30.054
Zander -30.172
Werner Pichler -30.179
Paul Steele -30.250
Bookmaker Consensus -30.262
Stephen K -30.294
CollectiveConsciousness -30.408
Georg Haas -30.473
FoG -30.522
TransferMarkt (by FM) -30.685
RED -30.894
Devlin Sullivan -30.915
Ll�o -31.067
kikijones2001 -31.282
Jesus Petry -31.514
KonakaLab -31.876
FIFA (by FM) -31.977
AI-lbania -32.015
Elo (by FM) -32.199
SwissFootballData -32.492
dopemodels.info -32.503
Silver_aurora -32.536
LukaszBoz -32.681
Jesper -35.468
Agnostic -36.071

Congrats, Anders!

Thank you. Thank very much!


--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

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