XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Oct 09 0143 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 October 2023
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were
observed on 02 Oct due to an M1.9/1n (R1-Minor) flare at 02/1249 UTC
from Region 3455 (N25, L=274, class/area=Cro/020 on 02 Oct, the
strongest of the period. Moderate levels were again observed on 07
Oct due to an M1.7/Sb flare at 07/1806 UTC from Region 3406 (S10,
L=232, class/area=Dai/080 on 08 Oct). Associated with the event was
Type II radio sweep and a narrow, faint CME that was headed east of
the Sun-Earth line. The remaining 15 numbered active regions were
either quiet to only produced C-class (below R1-Minor) activity.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 03 Oct and was moderate for the remainder of the
reporting period.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled levels on 02
Oct-04 Oct. An increase to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels was
observed on 05 Oct due to southward Bz (-8 nT) during elevated solar
wind speeds (~450 km/s) from a positive polarity CH HSS. Geomagnetic
conditions decreased to quiet to unsettled levels over the following
three days.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 October - 04 November 2023
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate
conditions through the outlook period due to the flare potential
from active regions currently on the visible disk and regions that
have produced moderate activity that expected to return from the
Sun's farside.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate levels over 09-13 Oct. Influence from a
negative polarity CH HSS is likely to increase electron flux to high
levels over 14-18 Oct. A return to moderate levels is likely for the
remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels. Active levels are likely on 13-14 Oct and 31 Oct. Unsettled
levels are likely on 10-12 Oct, 15 Oct, and 01 Nov. All increases in geomagnetic activity is anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH
HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at quiet
levels.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)