On 7/13/2022 7:35 AM, Ralph E Lindberg wrote:
On 2022-07-13 02:53:54 +0000, Technobarbarian said:
The suffering just keeps getting worse and worse.
"IMF slashes U.S. growth forecast, sees 'narrowing path' to avoid
recession"
"WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on
Friday slashed its U.S. economic growth forecast as aggressive Federal
Reserve interest rate hikes cool demand but predicted that the United
States would "narrowly" avoid a recession.
In an annual assessment of U.S. economic policies, the IMF said it now
expects U.S. Gross Domestic Product to grow 2.9% in 2022, less than
its most recent forecast of 3.7% in April.
For 2023, the IMF cut its U.S. growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.3% and
it now expects growth to trough at 0.8% in 2024.
Last October, the IMF predicted 5.2% U.S. growth this year, but since
then, new COVID-19 variants and stubborn supply chain disruptions have
slowed recovery, while a sharp spike in fuel and food prices prompted
by Russia's war in Ukraine further stoked inflation to 40-year highs.
"We are conscious that there is a narrowing path to avoiding a
recession in the U.S.," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva
told a news conference, noting that the outlook had a high degree of
uncertainty.
"The economy continues to recover from the pandemic and important
shocks are buffeting the economy from the Russian invasion of Ukraine
and from lockdowns in China," she said. "Further negative shocks would
inevitably make the situation more difficult."
If large enough, a shock could push the United States into a
recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise
in unemployment, akin to the U.S. recession in 2001, said IMF Deputy
Western Hemisphere Director Nigel Chalk. Strong U.S. savings would
help support demand, he added.
[snip]
This is terrible! Only 0.8% growth in 2024! How will we ever
survive?
TB
Anyone that says they understand the current ecomonic situation is
clearly lying or insane.
We have high inflatiion (9.1%)
Low unemployement
Record retail fuel prices, with honestly normal wholesale prices.
Near record low fuel consumption (per capita lowest in 30 years)
On going supply chain issues.
This is a total situation never seen before and honestly no one
understands.
The times may be a bit odd, but they aren't all that strange. Our
biggest supply chain issue--computer chips--have gone from a shortage to
a glut. Here at the consumer level I rarely see real shortages. Luden's
cough drops are currently hard to find. I assume that's due to the
latest surge in Covid cases. Otherwise I haven't had any problems buying
what I want lately. (Because of the plunge in cryptocurrency prices you
can even buy graphics cards for MSRP again.)
So far the most dire prediction I'm seeing is a short shallow
recession that may or may not happen. When you look at this chart it's difficult to see some horrible future. For the last 70 years we have
only been headed in one direction. The worst case scenario is that we
might not always be as prosperous as we are now. Even that leaves a lot
of room for incredible prosperity. It's more likely that the per capita
GDP will continue to go up.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA
TB
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