I don't know what a rollout would say but I agreed OTB with XG's analysis verdict of marginally TG despite there being a few crushing market gainers. Consistent with TG, I took two checkers off when I rolled a 32 but XG
would have played safe.
XG then played 18/7. I then correctly cashed and here rolling would
have been about a 0.05 error.
Good cube play from me but the checkerplay was apparently too greedy.

Paul

XGID=-FBCBaBa----a------cbbbba-:1:1:1:00:7:4:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
10

Score is X:7 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 39 O: 98 X-O: 7-4
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 95.96% (G:7.54% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.995, Double=+1.989

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.007
Redouble/Take: +1.967 (+0.960)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.007)

Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 2:00:52 PM UTC-5, [email protected] wrote:

I don't know what a rollout would say but I agreed OTB with XG's analysis verdict of marginally TG despite there being a few crushing market gainers. Consistent with TG, I took two checkers off when I rolled a 32 but XG
would have played safe.
XG then played 18/7. I then correctly cashed and here rolling would
have been about a 0.05 error.
Good cube play from me but the checkerplay was apparently too greedy.

Paul

XGID=-FBCBaBa----a------cbbbba-:1:1:1:00:7:4:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
10

Score is X:7 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 39 O: 98 X-O: 7-4
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 95.96% (G:7.54% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.995, Double=+1.989

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.007
Redouble/Take: +1.967 (+0.960)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.007)

Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

You take two checkers off and are hit and lose just over one game on average. Let's call it 3%. You play two off the six point you obviously win 100% of the time. 97% compared to 100% so do you think taking two off wins you 6% more gammons?

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Here's a variant.

XGID=-CCCBaBa----a------cbbbba-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 38 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 3/Off 2/Off eq:+1.077
Player: 96.09% (G:14.47% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 3.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+1.075..+1.078) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/3 eq:+1.073 (-0.004)
Player: 99.99% (G:7.26% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 0.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (+1.072..+1.073) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)