On 6-12-2021 4:32, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-BBA------------------bb--:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 9 O: 10 X-O: 1-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
I don't usually post this type of technical decision, but I figured I'd
do it this time for a change of pace. I'm not sure if there's a good
way to figure this one out OTB. If this were a last-roll position,
then X would be risking about 11% MWC to gain about 7.5% MWC, and so
would double with about 60% GWC.
X doesn't quite have 60% in this position, but it's not quite a
last-roll position. That must have something to do with it, but I
don't see an easy way to argue for why X is supposed to double now.
Just browsing here a bit after a very long hiatus. I know this is old,
but it's interesting!
X should double here because otherwise, either X loses his market (by a
lot), or O will make a highly profitable double later most of the time.
It's hard to catch this OTB but if X does not cube now, and rolls 2-1
taking two off, will O double? If not and O takes two off then you get
to this:
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 6 O: 5 X-O: 1-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Now X has only around 40% winning chances, but quite a lot of market
losing sequences. And what happens if X decides not to double and takes
two off?
--
Zorba
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