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  • Paul might like this cube problem

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Dec 1 08:28:55 2021
    XGID=b-BCBBBB-------abbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O O | | O O X X O |
    | O O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Dec 1 13:34:01 2021
    On Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 1:28:58 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=b-BCBBBB-------abbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O O | | O O X X O |
    | O O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I agree that it's difficult.
    I'll hold this (ND/T) but with no confidence whatsoever.
    We need a lot of good dice to free ourselves -- two sixes and an ace (and not in any order either).
    We're hoping for an ace or a six here.
    It's quite possible that those rolls do lose our market. But they still leave a lot of escaping to do so I suspect
    that they don't totally destroy our market.
    I'll hold until I roll either an ace or a six and then I'll think about it. ND/T.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From J R@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Thu Dec 2 16:00:55 2021
    On Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:34:03 PM UTC-5, [email protected] wrote:
    On Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 1:28:58 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=b-BCBBBB-------abbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O O | | O O X X O |
    | O O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I agree that it's difficult.
    I'll hold this (ND/T) but with no confidence whatsoever.
    We need a lot of good dice to free ourselves -- two sixes and an ace (and not in any order either).
    We're hoping for an ace or a six here.
    It's quite possible that those rolls do lose our market. But they still leave a lot of escaping to do so I suspect
    that they don't totally destroy our market.
    I'll hold until I roll either an ace or a six and then I'll think about it. ND/T.

    Paul

    O'Hagan's Law....

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 3 23:39:41 2021
    XGID=b-BCBBBB-------abbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O O | | O O X X O |
    | O O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    First we note that since O has two checkers on the bar, a lot of X's
    wins will be gammons. Then we note that X has two checkers behind
    O's five-prime, and one of them is not at the edge; plus X is running
    out of time to roll a 6. This means that O must have pretty good
    winning chances. Despite O's unfortunately placed blots, the rollout
    indicates a clear take.

    Any 6 leads to massive market loss since it puts another checker on
    the bar and buys X more timing. Unless O rolls 11, X will be too good.
    The rollout indicates an equally clear double.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 60.78% (G:43.98% B:1.72%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 39.22% (G:6.86% B:0.23%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 60.78% (G:44.81% B:1.57%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 39.22% (G:7.09% B:0.25%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.695 (-0.150)
    Double/Take: +0.845
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.155)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.682..+0.708)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.822..+0.869)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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