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  • If I said that I thought I was lucky, would you think I was boasting?

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 19 02:51:53 2021
    41 is easy to play of course, but that's not my question.
    My confusion is that XG's 4 ply analysis considers this a nullo roll
    which improves my equity by only 0.082.
    This seems highly counter-intuitive.
    I'm a slight underdog to hit XG on its 5 point.
    If I care about the result (rather than caring exclusively about my PR),
    I'm going to be thinking "I hope I get lucky and hit on the 5! I really hope so."
    But now it turns out that the hit hardly gained much equity at all.
    Why is that?

    Paul

    XGID=-----aD-C-BAbCA-ad-dab---A:1:1:1:41:0:10:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:10. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X X X | | X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 157 O: 124 X-O: 0-10
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 41

    1. 3-ply Bar/20* eq:-0.034
    Player: 45.95% (G:8.02% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 54.05% (G:19.19% B:0.71%)

    2. 1-ply Bar/24 14/10 eq:-0.442 (-0.408)
    Player: 33.30% (G:5.19% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 66.70% (G:27.37% B:0.72%)

    3. 1-ply Bar/24 11/7 eq:-0.492 (-0.457)
    Player: 32.56% (G:5.31% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 67.44% (G:30.18% B:1.24%)

    4. 1-ply Bar/24 13/9 eq:-0.571 (-0.536)
    Player: 31.45% (G:5.42% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 68.55% (G:34.39% B:2.39%)

    5. 1-ply Bar/24 8/4 eq:-0.587 (-0.553)
    Player: 30.64% (G:5.39% B:0.35%)
    Opponent: 69.36% (G:34.51% B:2.01%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Fri Nov 19 08:47:23 2021
    On 11/19/2021 5:51 AM, [email protected] wrote:
    41 is easy to play of course, but that's not my question.
    My confusion is that XG's 4 ply analysis considers this a nullo roll
    which improves my equity by only 0.082.
    This seems highly counter-intuitive.

    You can get insight into these questions by going to the "Analyze"
    menu and selecting "Dice Distribution." There you will see that
    hitting twice, or pointing on your own 5pt, or even hitting and
    covering your 11pt, are all considered by XG to be better rolls
    than 41.

    At least, that's my take on it. If Nasti Chestikov responds, I
    will defer to him, since he seems to be the world expert on what
    constitutes a lucky roll.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Nov 19 07:02:30 2021
    On Friday, November 19, 2021 at 1:47:28 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 11/19/2021 5:51 AM, [email protected] wrote:
    41 is easy to play of course, but that's not my question.
    My confusion is that XG's 4 ply analysis considers this a nullo roll
    which improves my equity by only 0.082.
    This seems highly counter-intuitive.
    You can get insight into these questions by going to the "Analyze"
    menu and selecting "Dice Distribution." There you will see that
    hitting twice, or pointing on your own 5pt, or even hitting and
    covering your 11pt, are all considered by XG to be better rolls
    than 41.

    At least, that's my take on it. If Nasti Chestikov responds, I
    will defer to him, since he seems to be the world expert on what
    constitutes a lucky roll.

    He's not the only expert.
    Where he errs is that he assumes that a good roll should never be assumed
    lucky if the good outcome was more likely than not to occur.
    For example, if you're in a final roll position in the bearoff, you aren't lucky to
    bearoff and win if you had more than 18 outs.

    Paul

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