XGID=--CbBCB--bA--Bbb-bbbB-a---:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O X O | +---+
| X O O O O | | O X | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X O X |
| X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--CbBCB--bA--Bbb-bbbB-a---:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O X O | +---+
| X O O O O | | O X | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X O X |
| X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

I visually parsed this position as a priming battle, and so made the
bar point, but to the extent that this is a priming battle, X is
probably not going to win it, at least not in that fashion. His
prime is likely to collapse soon. X should instead note that the is
far ahead in the race and has a stronger board, so he should be
thinking about racing his checkers home. The safe 10/1 challenges
O to perform---she is totally stripped and so will likely have to
either weaken her prime or leave a blot. Interestingly, XG also
thinks that 13/10 13/7 is okay. If O hits the blot, she has to give
up her anchor to do so, and X has more spare pips to play from his
10pt than from his 7pt.

1. Rollout¹ 10/1 eq:-0.209
Player: 47.02% (G:17.90% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 52.98% (G:10.39% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.217..-0.200) - [97.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:-0.220 (-0.012)
Player: 46.81% (G:16.64% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 53.19% (G:9.34% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.228..-0.212) - [2.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/2 eq:-0.278 (-0.069)
Player: 45.28% (G:16.78% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 54.72% (G:11.42% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.286..-0.270) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.295 (-0.086)
Player: 44.77% (G:15.88% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 55.23% (G:10.67% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.313..-0.277) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout² 13/4 eq:-0.327 (-0.118)
Player: 43.50% (G:16.06% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 56.50% (G:11.02% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.026 (-0.353..-0.301) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aaCBCBb--BA------AccbcA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O X | | X X X |
| X X O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 7:27:33 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--aaCBCBb--BA------AccbcA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O X | | X X X |
| X X O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

I think you need to put O on the bar, otherwise, after we play 12/6 4/1, she will have 7 shots to point on our blot on our 24 point, and 22 more loose hits. If not hit, we're still in a bad, if not worse, situation. 12/3* limits O to 15 return shots and
we'll have 31 shots to cover if we're not hit. I don't think any plays leaving our blot on the 12 point are contenders.

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aaCBCBb--BA------AccbcA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O X | | X X X |
| X X O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

After hitting with 6/3*, I was more concerned about my blot on the
24pt than about my blot on the 12pt, but XG says it should have been
the other way around. See the variant, where my opponent's 3s are
duplicated (or even triplicated).

1. Rollout¹ 12/3* eq:+0.359
Player: 65.49% (G:29.12% B:1.51%)
Opponent: 34.51% (G:12.72% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.349..+0.369) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/3* eq:+0.151 (-0.208)
Player: 61.70% (G:25.08% B:1.19%)
Opponent: 38.30% (G:19.46% B:0.96%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.141..+0.162) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aaCBCBb-BA-------AccbcA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O X | | X X X |
| X X O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/3* eq:+0.298
Player: 65.41% (G:27.01% B:1.32%)
Opponent: 34.59% (G:15.66% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.291..+0.305) - [76.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/3* eq:+0.294 (-0.004)
Player: 63.65% (G:27.93% B:1.39%)
Opponent: 36.35% (G:13.10% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.285..+0.302) - [23.3%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)