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  • A correct application of Gruntyization theory

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 14 10:41:54 2021
    XGID=--aBBBBBC--A---------A-af-:1:1:1:66:9:27:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:9 O:27. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | X O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 106 O: 31 X-O: 9-27
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 66

    Here, I did manage to play the doublets correctly, at least according
    to the bot.
    Clearly, we would love to pick up the opponent's blot on the two point.
    So we need to slot the 2 or the ace? But should we slot them both,
    even at the expense of our prime?

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sun Nov 14 19:24:23 2021
    On 11/14/2021 1:41 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=--aBBBBBC--A---------A-af-:1:1:1:66:9:27:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:9 O:27. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | X O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 106 O: 31 X-O: 9-27
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 66

    Here, I did manage to play the doublets correctly, at least according
    to the bot.
    Clearly, we would love to pick up the opponent's blot on the two point.
    So we need to slot the 2 or the ace? But should we slot them both,
    even at the expense of our prime?

    I don't think we need to slot both when O has only 7 checkers off. So
    I'd play 21/9 11/5 8/2*.

    If O had 12 checkers off, with two blots in her board, then I would slot
    both. I'm not sure where the crossover point is.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Nov 17 12:41:54 2021
    On Monday, November 15, 2021 at 12:24:26 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 11/14/2021 1:41 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=--aBBBBBC--A---------A-af-:1:1:1:66:9:27:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:9 O:27. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | X O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 106 O: 31 X-O: 9-27
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 66

    Here, I did manage to play the doublets correctly, at least according
    to the bot.
    Clearly, we would love to pick up the opponent's blot on the two point.
    So we need to slot the 2 or the ace? But should we slot them both,
    even at the expense of our prime?
    I don't think we need to slot both when O has only 7 checkers off. So
    I'd play 21/9 11/5 8/2*.

    If O had 12 checkers off, with two blots in her board, then I would slot both. I'm not sure where the crossover point is.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    As below you win the rollout.
    1. Rollout¹ 21/9 11/5 8/2* eq:+0.562
    Player: 66.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 33.49% (G:1.91% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.555..+0.569) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 2 minutes 52 seconds

    2. 4-ply 21/15 8/2*(2) 7/1 eq:+0.530 (-0.032)
    Player: 66.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 33.48% (G:2.84% B:0.16%)

    3. 4-ply 11/5 8/2*(2) 7/1 eq:+0.522 (-0.039)
    Player: 66.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 33.53% (G:3.41% B:0.14%)

    4. 4-ply 21/9 8/2*(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.045)
    Player: 65.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 35.00% (G:1.21% B:0.04%)

    5. 3-ply 21/15 11/5 8/2*(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.045)
    Player: 65.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 34.90% (G:1.41% B:0.04%)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Wed Nov 17 22:37:34 2021
    On 11/17/2021 3:41 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    As below you win the rollout.
    1. Rollout¹ 21/9 11/5 8/2* eq:+0.562
    Player: 66.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 33.49% (G:1.91% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.555..+0.569) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 2 minutes 52 seconds

    Thanks for posting the rollout. One comment, though...as a general
    principle, it's not very reliable to compare rollout equities with
    4-ply or 3-ply equities, or even XGR+ or XGR++ equities. To compare
    two plays, it's better to use the same settings for both.

    2. 4-ply 21/15 8/2*(2) 7/1 eq:+0.530 (-0.032)
    Player: 66.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 33.48% (G:2.84% B:0.16%)

    3. 4-ply 11/5 8/2*(2) 7/1 eq:+0.522 (-0.039)
    Player: 66.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 33.53% (G:3.41% B:0.14%)

    4. 4-ply 21/9 8/2*(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.045)
    Player: 65.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 35.00% (G:1.21% B:0.04%)

    5. 3-ply 21/15 11/5 8/2*(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.045)
    Player: 65.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 34.90% (G:1.41% B:0.04%)


    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)