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  • I didn't think I was playing Mastermind!

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 13 05:21:09 2021
    In the Mastermind UK TV show, a pass is definitely a suboptimal play;
    it's much better to know the answer.
    But this is surely backgammon rather than Mastermind so a pass is not necessarily bad. Was I wrong to pass this one or is this a Mastermind pass?

    Paul


    XGID=-c--BBC-B---bD---a-bbbab-B:0:0:-1:00:4:8:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:8 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | O X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 154 X-O: 8-4
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sat Nov 13 09:52:36 2021
    On 11/13/2021 8:21 AM, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=-c--BBC-B---bD---a-bbbab-B:0:0:-1:00:4:8:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:8 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | O X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 154 X-O: 8-4
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    These types of cubes are treacherous but I would take this one.
    X still has a lot of work to do; he has to cover his blot before
    O hits it, and he has to escape three back checkers. O has a
    pretty strong offensive position and no extra blots to pick up.
    I would double in practice without even thinking about it because
    it looks scary, but I have sometimes doubled positions that look
    superficially similar to this one and been dinged for it, because
    if O hits then X is in big trouble. But here, if X covers then
    he almost always loses his market.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Nov 14 07:31:03 2021
    On Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 2:52:41 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 11/13/2021 8:21 AM, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=-c--BBC-B---bD---a-bbbab-B:0:0:-1:00:4:8:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:8 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | O X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 154 X-O: 8-4
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    These types of cubes are treacherous but I would take this one.
    X still has a lot of work to do; he has to cover his blot before
    O hits it, and he has to escape three back checkers. O has a
    pretty strong offensive position and no extra blots to pick up.
    I would double in practice without even thinking about it because
    it looks scary, but I have sometimes doubled positions that look superficially similar to this one and been dinged for it, because
    if O hits then X is in big trouble. But here, if X covers then
    he almost always loses his market.

    It's a very close take -- looked like a pass to me, and I wasn't too far wrong. Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.11% (G:41.38% B:1.09%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.89% (G:11.06% B:0.89%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 65.01% (G:43.22% B:0.94%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.99% (G:10.95% B:0.90%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.587, Double=+1.246

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.695 (-0.274)
    Double/Take: +0.969
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.031)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.683..+0.707)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.945..+0.992)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 99.6%

    Duration: 38 minutes 34 seconds

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)