Paul cited Grunty's dictum recently, and this is a good example IMO.

XGID=-B-aCBBB-b---B----B-dbbbb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/20/2024 2:34 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:

Paul cited Grunty's dictum recently, and this is a good example IMO.

XGID=-B-aCBBB-b---B----B-dbbbb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X              X |   |    O  O  O  O  O |
 | X              X |   |    O  O  O  O  O |  |                  |   |    O             |
 |                  |   |    O             |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |       X          | +---+
 |          O     X |   | X  X  X        X | | 2 |  |          O     X |   | X  X  X  O     X | +---+  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 112  O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33

I get dinged a lot for failing to switch points, but I'm not seeing
6/3*(2) as a good option. Might be the bot play, but I'm unconvinced.

O is ahead in the race and will run out with fives and sixes, so I'll
make fours and threes play awkwardly with 18/12(2).

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XGID=-B-aCBBB-b---B----B-dbbbb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33

Switching points is mandatory, according to XG. In this position,
it's the best way to contain O's straggler, which is important since
the straggler is O's main weakness. Even after you switch points,
though, XG will ding you for a whopper unless you play 13/10(2)
with the remaining two 3's.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 6/3*(2) eq:+0.486
Player: 60.92% (G:10.19% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 39.08% (G:5.43% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.478..+0.494) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 6/3*(2) eq:+0.369 (-0.116)
Player: 57.15% (G:7.69% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 42.85% (G:6.78% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.362..+0.377) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3*(2) eq:+0.340 (-0.146)
Player: 55.50% (G:8.41% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 44.50% (G:6.88% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.333..+0.348) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 18/12 6/3*(2) eq:+0.309 (-0.177)
Player: 56.18% (G:9.35% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 43.82% (G:12.04% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.303..+0.315) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 18/12(2) eq:+0.298 (-0.188)
Player: 53.79% (G:7.09% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 46.21% (G:3.70% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.291..+0.305) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 13/10(2) eq:+0.292 (-0.194)
Player: 54.20% (G:6.34% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 45.80% (G:3.53% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.286..+0.297) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)