On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, [email protected] wrote:

XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.

---
Tim Chow

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