XGID=---aBBC-B--AbB---bcdcB---A:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---aBBC-B--AbB---bcdcB---A:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

I thought that making a broken five-prime would be better than
switching points, but XG violently disagrees. Major modifications
are required to sway XG from switching points (see variants).

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 5/3*(2) eq:-0.103
Player: 45.87% (G:10.90% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 54.13% (G:10.93% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.123..-0.083) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/11 5/3*(2) eq:-0.219 (-0.116)
Player: 43.73% (G:12.60% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 56.27% (G:15.35% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.233..-0.205) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 11/9 5/3*(2) eq:-0.292 (-0.190)
Player: 42.20% (G:11.36% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 57.80% (G:15.14% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.305..-0.280) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9 11/9 eq:-0.313 (-0.211)
Player: 42.04% (G:9.50% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 57.96% (G:15.51% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.326..-0.301) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=---aBBC-B--BbA---bcdcB---A:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 5/3*(2) eq:-0.111
Player: 46.19% (G:11.58% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 53.81% (G:11.63% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.123..-0.100) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9 11/9 eq:-0.155 (-0.044)
Player: 45.28% (G:10.67% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 54.72% (G:12.89% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.167..-0.143) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/9(2) eq:-0.162 (-0.050)
Player: 44.52% (G:9.33% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 55.48% (G:11.27% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.174..-0.149) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=---aBBC-B--Bb----bcdcC---A:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/9(2) eq:-0.373
Player: 38.98% (G:8.29% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 61.02% (G:13.15% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.386..-0.360) - [99.6%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 5/3*(2) eq:-0.398 (-0.025)
Player: 38.46% (G:8.39% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 61.54% (G:12.87% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.411..-0.385) - [0.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 3
---------

XGID=--a-BBC-B--AbB---bcdcB---A:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/9 6/4 eq:-0.150
Player: 45.65% (G:9.15% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 54.35% (G:11.04% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.161..-0.140) - [69.2%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/2* eq:-0.156 (-0.006)
Player: 45.88% (G:11.08% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 54.12% (G:13.88% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.169..-0.144) - [20.4%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/7 eq:-0.159 (-0.009)
Player: 46.22% (G:9.46% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 53.78% (G:13.49% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.171..-0.147) - [10.5%]

4. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/11 6/4 eq:-0.197 (-0.047)
Player: 44.02% (G:8.87% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 55.98% (G:12.72% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.209..-0.186) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/11(2) eq:-0.216 (-0.065)
Player: 43.16% (G:8.42% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 56.84% (G:9.97% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.227..-0.204) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ Bar/21 4/2*(2) eq:-0.239 (-0.089)
Player: 43.03% (G:10.60% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 56.97% (G:11.73% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.252..-0.227) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/19/2023 3:17 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---aBBC-B--AbB---bcdcB---A:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O  O  X          |
 | X           O  O |   | O  O  X          |  |                O |   | O  O             |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  | X |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X  X  X          |
 | O  X        X    |   | X  X  X  O       |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 156  O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

I'll enter on the 23 and then make the nine point. This builds a broken
five prime and it seems like priming is the most likely game plan that wins.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)