XGID=----B-EaCB-Ab--b-c-cB-b-b-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/18/2023 9:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=----B-EaCB-Ab--b-c-cB-b-b-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       O     O    |   | O  X     O     O |  |       O     O    |   | O  X     O     O |  |             O    |   | O                |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |             X    |   | X                |  | O        X  X    |   | X     X          |
 | O  X     X  X  O |   | X     X          |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 131  O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

X has an advanced anchor and O's board is weak. Plus X is behind in the
race, so hitting seems sound. Then slot the five point? Risky, but when
it works it works and if not X can recirculate without too much
difficulty. Running off the anchor seems antipositional, and we don't
want to bury checkers, so I'll play 11/5 9/7*.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----B-EaCB-Ab--b-c-cB-b-b-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

This position dramatically illustrates the difference between the
golden anchor and the bar-point anchor. It makes sense to hit since
we're behind in the pip count and if we don't hit, O's straggler
will likely get away. But if we hit, we have to expose a lot of
shots and blots. Is it worth the risk? According to XG, the answer
is a resounding yes in this position, but not in the variant where
X has the bar-point anchor instead.

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 9/7* eq:-0.323
Player: 40.51% (G:10.44% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 59.49% (G:13.52% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.344..-0.303) - [98.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3 9/7* eq:-0.350 (-0.026)
Player: 40.25% (G:9.50% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 59.75% (G:13.36% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.360..-0.339) - [1.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/7* 7/1 eq:-0.357 (-0.034)
Player: 39.98% (G:9.03% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 60.02% (G:10.99% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.366..-0.348) - [0.1%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/4 eq:-0.478 (-0.154)
Player: 35.77% (G:3.01% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 64.23% (G:2.84% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.487..-0.469) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----B-EaCB-Ab--b-cBc--b-b-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/4 eq:-0.315
Player: 39.81% (G:2.66% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 60.19% (G:2.12% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.321..-0.310) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/7* 7/1 eq:-0.341 (-0.025)
Player: 42.02% (G:9.72% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 57.98% (G:18.17% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.349..-0.332) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/5 9/7* eq:-0.342 (-0.027)
Player: 41.84% (G:11.56% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 58.16% (G:22.75% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.351..-0.334) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/3 9/7* eq:-0.352 (-0.036)
Player: 41.80% (G:10.21% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 58.20% (G:20.57% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.360..-0.344) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)