XGID=-BBBCbB-B-----b----cBbcba-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BBBCbB-B-----b----cBbcba-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

The question here is whether 20/18 20/16 is justified on account of
O's home-board blot and the duplication of 2's. XG 3-ply actually
favors 8/6 8/4 here, but the rollout disagrees. It's interesting to
explore different variants here; one is shown below.

1. Rollout¹ 20/18 20/16 eq:-0.074
Player: 48.16% (G:12.23% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 51.84% (G:15.67% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.082..-0.065) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/4 eq:-0.162 (-0.088)
Player: 46.17% (G:8.02% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 53.83% (G:7.89% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.171..-0.153) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBBCbB-B-----b----cBbcc--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/4 eq:-0.130
Player: 47.06% (G:7.59% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 52.94% (G:7.39% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.139..-0.120) - [92.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/18 20/16 eq:-0.138 (-0.009)
Player: 47.54% (G:8.08% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 52.46% (G:12.52% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.146..-0.131) - [7.6%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/15/2023 10:58 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-BBBCbB-B-----b----cBbcba-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |    O             |   | O  X  O  O  O  O |
 |    O             |   | O  X  O  O  O    |  |                  |   | O        O       |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |       X          |
 |             X    |   | X  O  X  X  X  X |  |             X    |   | X  O  X  X  X  X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 92  O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

I'm trying to come up with a reason to bun off the anchor and coming up
short. OTB I'd clear the eight point without much thought. Further
thinking doesn't override that.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)