XGID=--b-B-CBC--AAA--bb-ccBaaa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O O |
| O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/11/2023 11:25 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--b-B-CBC--AAA--bb-ccBaaa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O    |   | O  O  X  O  O  O |
 |          O  O    |   | O  O  X          |
 |                  |   | O  O             |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X                |
 |             X  X |   | X     X     O    |
 | X  X        X  X |   | X     X     O    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 142  O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

X has the better position, O is ahead in the race, and there are no
direct threats so PRAT would say ND/T.

But X stands to improve his position while O is on the verge of
collapsing. So I'll ship it. Some will pass this, so a good practical
double even if XG says hold.

D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 12:21:48 PM UTC-5, ah....Clem wrote:

On 11/11/2023 11:25 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--b-B-CBC--AAA--bb-ccBaaa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O O |
| O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

X has the better position, O is ahead in the race, and there are no
direct threats so PRAT would say ND/T.

But X stands to improve his position while O is on the verge of
collapsing. So I'll ship it. Some will pass this, so a good practical
double even if XG says hold.

D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Doesn't matter if you're up in the race if you can't race.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--b-B-CBC--AAA--bb-ccBaaa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O O |
| O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

X has a big advantage in this priming battle, and O's blots in
her home board don't help---they mean that even if O hits a fly
shot, it won't help her much. According to the rollout, this is
a big pass.

Ah...clem mentioned PRAT, and so might be interested in what Marc
Olsen has to say in his book with Mochy, "Backgammon Masterclass."
In a nutshell, his modification of PRAT says that you always need
threats (read: market losers) to double (unless you've already lost
your market), and he splits Position into Prime and Blitz. So now
you're looking for 2 out of the 3 areas Prime, Blitz, and Race. One
final nuance is that a big enough priming threat can be enough all
by itself. That final nuance applies here. The other thing to be
aware of, as Stick briefly alluded to, is that in a priming battle,
it's often an advantage to be *behind* in the race because it often
means you have a timing advantage.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.76% (G:18.67% B:0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.24% (G:5.52% B:0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.41% (G:19.08% B:0.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.59% (G:5.81% B:0.22%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.912 (-0.088)
Double/Take: +1.132 (+0.132)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.902..+0.922)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.118..+1.147)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--b-B-CBC--AAA--bb-ccBba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.90% (G:16.81% B:0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.10% (G:5.76% B:0.16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.24% (G:16.85% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.76% (G:5.80% B:0.18%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.840 (-0.137)
Double/Take: +0.977
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.023)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.831..+0.849)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.964..+0.991)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)