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  • Another 44 to play

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 4 13:07:52 2023
    XGID=-C-CbBB-B---aB---b-bcabb-A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X O X X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From BlueDice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Nov 5 04:40:52 2023
    On Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 5:07:56 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-C-CbBB-B---aB---b-bcabb-A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X O X X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I would play the mundane 13/9 13/5 but I suspect I'm missing something here ....
    --
    BD

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to BlueDice on Tue Nov 7 00:27:24 2023
    On Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 7:40:54 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
    On Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 5:07:56 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-C-CbBB-B---aB---b-bcabb-A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X O X X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I would play the mundane 13/9 13/5 but I suspect I'm missing something here ....
    --
    BD

    Being that it's a problem it's a lot easier to find the candidate plays and not let one slip by the catcher. A game I played just this past week was "always make the second best play". It's a variant where your single goal is to make the second best
    play. It forces you to weigh candidates you normally wouldn't because often times the best play is the best play and it's not close. While I rarely do this OtB, every now and again a confusing position comes up where I do force myself to pick what I
    would play if I didn't make Play A. This isn't one of the positions where I'd do such a thing OtB but as a problem if you 'think you're missing something' then you should more closely examine the candidate plays.

    So, did you consider 13/1 originally?

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 7 09:35:47 2023
    XGID=-C-CbBB-B---aB---b-bcabb-A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X O X X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    Killing a checker to the 1pt always goes against the grain, but this
    nice roll has turned the game around, and we have the opportunity to
    press our advantage by hitting a second blot. The alternative of
    13/9 13/5 releases the pressure on O's outfield blot.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21* 13/1 eq:+0.471
    Player: 60.33% (G:24.36% B:0.31%)
    Opponent: 39.67% (G:9.91% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.463..+0.479) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21* 13/9 13/5 eq:+0.407 (-0.064)
    Player: 58.42% (G:25.23% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 41.58% (G:10.01% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.400..+0.414) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Nov 7 08:02:44 2023
    On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 9:35:50 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-C-CbBB-B---aB---b-bcabb-A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X O X X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44
    Killing a checker to the 1pt always goes against the grain, but this
    nice roll has turned the game around, and we have the opportunity to
    press our advantage by hitting a second blot. The alternative of
    13/9 13/5 releases the pressure on O's outfield blot.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21* 13/1 eq:+0.471
    Player: 60.33% (G:24.36% B:0.31%)
    Opponent: 39.67% (G:9.91% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.463..+0.479) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21* 13/9 13/5 eq:+0.407 (-0.064)
    Player: 58.42% (G:25.23% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 41.58% (G:10.01% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.400..+0.414) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    It's not really about the pressure on the opp's outfield blot, it's about the duplication of ones and the amount of shots we leave immediately.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)