XGID=-bBBBBB-A---bB---bbbc-B-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/18/2023 8:40 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-bBBBBB-A---bB---bbbc-B-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O  O     X     O |
 | X           O  O |   | O  O     X     O |
 |                  |   |    O             |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
 | O           X    |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 118  O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

The take seems unclear, so I'll ship it due to Woolsey's law. Ace point
games are usually passes, but X has work to do, so maybe...

Then I observe that O owns both ace points and that's often an
indication of a pass, so I'll say pass.

D/P.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/18/2023 11:13 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

On 10/18/2023 8:40 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-bBBBBB-A---bB---bbbc-B-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
  | X           O  O |   | O  O     X     O |
  | X           O  O |   | O  O     X     O |
  |                  |   |    O             |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |BAR|                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  | O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
  | O           X    |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 118  O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

The take seems unclear, so I'll ship it due to Woolsey's law.  Ace point games are usually passes, but X has work to do, so maybe...

This is not an "ace-point game," at least not in the sense that people
mean when they employ the adage, "ace-point games are usually passes."
An ace-point game in that sense means that the other player's back
checkers have already escaped, which is not the case here.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-bBBBBB-A---bB---bbbc-B-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Like ah...clem, I thought this was a pass, since X has the better prime
and board and O has those dead checkers on her ace point. But X doesn't
have all that great timing himself, and XG says it's an easy take. Even
if we give X better timing (see variant), XG still takes.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.01% (G:21.41% B:1.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.99% (G:7.07% B:0.22%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.15% (G:21.59% B:1.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.85% (G:7.55% B:0.25%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.719 (-0.068)
Double/Take: +0.787
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.213)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.706..+0.731)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.771..+0.803)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bBBBBB-----bB--Abbbc-B-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X X O |
| O | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.05% (G:23.85% B:1.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.95% (G:7.01% B:0.18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.25% (G:23.92% B:1.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.75% (G:7.33% B:0.21%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.823 (-0.115)
Double/Take: +0.938
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.062)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.818..+0.828)
Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (+0.930..+0.946)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)