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  • Priming battle 3

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 15 09:24:13 2023
    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Oct 17 12:03:59 2023
    On 10/15/2023 9:24 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O  O |   | O  O  O  X  X    |
     |             O  O |   | O  O  O  X       |
     |             O    |   | O  O             |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                X |   | X  X  X  X       |
     |       X     X  X |   | X  X  X  X  O  O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 135  O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63


    Sixes don't grow on trees so it's tempting to use this one to leap out
    to the 13 point. Yes, that gives O a lot of good rolls, but if X stays
    on the anchor his blockade will crunch soon.

    Maybe O is in more danger of crunching, which would tip it towards
    simply tidying up with 10/4 8/5. X wants O to crunch, so hitting seems antipositional.

    10/4 8/5 without much conviction.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Oct 18 08:44:20 2023
    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    X's timing is slightly worse than O's, so that suggests jumping out
    despite the risk of getting gammoned. The rollout confirms this, but
    see also the two variants below for comparison.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.051
    Player: 50.48% (G:15.73% B:0.80%)
    Opponent: 49.52% (G:20.48% B:1.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.065..-0.037) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.135 (-0.084)
    Player: 46.65% (G:14.71% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 53.35% (G:17.22% B:0.79%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.150..-0.120) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbB-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.042
    Player: 49.95% (G:16.22% B:0.87%)
    Opponent: 50.05% (G:19.85% B:1.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.058..-0.026) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.094 (-0.052)
    Player: 47.47% (G:15.13% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 52.53% (G:16.53% B:0.84%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.109..-0.079) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------bbcccB-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:+0.086
    Player: 52.09% (G:16.65% B:0.92%)
    Opponent: 47.91% (G:15.64% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.079..+0.094) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:+0.027 (-0.059)
    Player: 53.08% (G:16.53% B:1.02%)
    Opponent: 46.92% (G:21.29% B:1.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.019..+0.035) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Oct 18 08:39:37 2023
    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    X's timing is slightly worse than O's, so that suggests jumping out
    despite the gammon risk. The rollouts below recommend 22/16 8/5
    even at gammon save. But see the two variants for comparison.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.051
    Player: 50.48% (G:15.73% B:0.80%)
    Opponent: 49.52% (G:20.48% B:1.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.065..-0.037) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.135 (-0.084)
    Player: 46.65% (G:14.71% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 53.35% (G:17.22% B:0.79%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.150..-0.120) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -----------
    Gammon save
    -----------

    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:1:0:1:2:10

    Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 126 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.401
    Player: 50.55% (G:16.98% B:2.22%)
    Opponent: 49.45% (G:20.62% B:2.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.410..-0.393) - [98.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.414 (-0.013)
    Player: 46.76% (G:15.01% B:2.35%)
    Opponent: 53.24% (G:17.47% B:2.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.422..-0.406) - [1.4%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbB-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.042
    Player: 49.95% (G:16.22% B:0.87%)
    Opponent: 50.05% (G:19.85% B:1.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.058..-0.026) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.094 (-0.052)
    Player: 47.47% (G:15.13% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 52.53% (G:16.53% B:0.84%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.109..-0.079) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------bbcccB-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:+0.086
    Player: 52.09% (G:16.65% B:0.92%)
    Opponent: 47.91% (G:15.64% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.079..+0.094) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:+0.027 (-0.059)
    Player: 53.08% (G:16.53% B:1.02%)
    Opponent: 46.92% (G:21.29% B:1.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.019..+0.035) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)