XGID=--aBBBB-B-A--A---b-ccbbCb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 88 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/14/2023 11:07 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--aBBBB-B-A--A---b-ccbbCb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O  O  O  O  X  O |  |             O    |   | O  O  O  O  X  O |  |                  |   | O  O        X    |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  | +---+
 |             X    |   | X  X  X  X       | | 2 |  |       X     X    |   | X  X  X  X  O    | +---+  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 144  O: 88 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

If O rolls a five it's basically game over, so slot the bar point and
hope to roll one of the 17 rolls that cover before she rolls one of the
11 rolls that hit. 10/7.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aBBBB-B-A--A---b-ccbbCb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 88 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

This is a tough one IMO. XG plays 10/7 at DMP, but 10/7 loses way more
gammons than any of the safe alternatives. The rollout says that the
tradeoff isn't worth it. But see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 13/12 10/8 eq:+0.053
Player: 46.94% (G:7.02% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 53.06% (G:15.69% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.045..+0.061) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq:+0.033 (-0.020)
Player: 46.48% (G:7.03% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 53.52% (G:16.01% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.024..+0.042) - [0.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 10/9 eq:-0.001 (-0.054)
Player: 46.53% (G:7.02% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 53.47% (G:19.96% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.009..+0.008) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:-0.057 (-0.110)
Player: 47.90% (G:7.46% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 52.10% (G:28.38% B:1.41%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.065..-0.049) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aBBBB-B-A--A--Ab-ccbbBb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 88 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:+0.428
Player: 61.33% (G:8.09% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 38.67% (G:21.96% B:1.36%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.420..+0.436) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/13 eq:+0.338 (-0.090)
Player: 58.92% (G:8.12% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 41.08% (G:15.26% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.329..+0.347) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)