XGID=---aCBCBB---aB----c-Acbcb-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 82 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/7/2023 9:04 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---aCBCBB---aB----c-Acbcb-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X              O |   |    X  O  O  O  O |
 | X              O |   |       O  O  O  O |  |                O |   |       O     O    |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X     X          | +---+
 |             X  X |   | X  X  X          | | 2 |  | O           X  X |   | X  X  X  O       | +---+  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 116  O: 82 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

Maybe blitzing with 13/7 8/3* is the right idea, but I think keeping the
prime looks stronger so I'll slot the back of the prime. If not hit, X
has 15 rolls to make the prime plus a bunch of POH rolls plus the rolls
that hit loose.

20/9.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---aCBCBB---aB----c-Acbcb-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 82 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

Breaking the five-prime to hit when we have the weaker board is
definitely the wrong idea. The main alternative to slotting 20/9
is 13/8 13/7. But 20/9 really is a one-roll proposition in the
sense that if O doesn't roll an immediate 6 then X will double
her out. On the other hand, after 13/8 13/7, O has some hitting
rolls that will keep her alive.

In the variant, I have moved X's 4pt spare to his midpoint. The
situation is now harder to evaluate; while 20/9 still leads to
a cash if O misses, the alternative of 20/15 13/7 gives X some
chances even after some of O's sixes. In the original position,
X has no outfield coverage if he plays 13/8 13/7 and O rolls a 6.

1. Rollout¹ 20/9 eq:+0.571
Player: 68.70% (G:5.23% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 31.30% (G:4.46% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.569..+0.573) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:+0.426 (-0.144)
Player: 59.85% (G:8.74% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:3.09% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.421..+0.431) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/14 8/3* eq:+0.379 (-0.191)
Player: 63.23% (G:12.21% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 36.77% (G:17.51% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.374..+0.384) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aBBCBB---aC----c-Acbcb-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 82 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 20/15 13/7 eq:+0.581
Player: 64.07% (G:6.41% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 35.93% (G:5.45% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.575..+0.588) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/9 eq:+0.555 (-0.026)
Player: 67.71% (G:4.96% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 32.29% (G:6.96% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.552..+0.557) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)