Race? Prime? Attack?

XGID=-a-aBBB-C--BdB-a--Bbbbb---:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, October 6, 2023 at 9:54:39 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:

Race? Prime? Attack?

XGID=-a-aBBB-C--BdB-a--Bbbbb---:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

Is the racing play different from the priming play?

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/6/2023 9:54 AM, ah...Clem wrote:

Race? Prime? Attack?

XGID=-a-aBBB-C--BdB-a--Bbbbb---:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

Attacking seems a bit reckless when we have escaped our back checkers,
and have a lead in the pip count and a weaker board. Even if we are
missed after we hit, the cleanup isn't so easy. I would just play the pedestrian 13/11 13/8.

I've just been reading Michy's book on "Back Checker Strategy," and he
would say that X has reached the "advanced stage" where he has an
advanced anchor. His general advice is to play safe at the advanced
stage. This is a slight modification of Magriel's criteria, because
Magriel would suggest that an anchor allows you to play boldly. But
in Michy's "advanced stage," you stand to lose a lot by getting hit:
you lose a lot in the pip count and your progress in escaping your
back checkers receives a setback.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-aBBB-C--BdB-a--Bbbbb---:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52


Like Tim, I opted to play two down from the midpoint. That play supports winning by racing or priming, but also allows X go switch to a blitz
later instead of committing to it now. I liked the idea of playing
flexibly.

XG rollout very slightly favors the blitzing play, but I'd put this one
into the "what's your preferred approach" category as opposed to saying
that the quiet play is "wrong".

A major factor in the difference is O's outfield blot, which gives X the opportunity to pick up a third checker after the blitz. In the variant
I've moved it to the homeboard where it's safe; in that position the
quiet play is the clear favorite according to XGR++.



1. Rollout¹ 8/3* 3/1* eq:+0.263
Player: 62.70% (G:25.88% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 37.30% (G:12.33% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.251..+0.274) - [98.3%]
Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.248 (-0.015)
Player: 64.51% (G:14.19% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 35.49% (G:6.68% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.241..+0.255) - [1.7%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

/////////////////////
// variant
/////////////////////


XGID=-a-aBBB-C--BdB----Bcbbb---:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

1. XG Roller++ 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.210
Player: 63.48% (G:12.72% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 36.52% (G:6.02% B:0.17%)

2. XG Roller++ 8/3* 3/1* eq:+0.159 (-0.050)
Player: 60.44% (G:23.02% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 39.56% (G:13.66% B:0.49%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10




--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)