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  • Give up the 10pt?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 31 21:24:13 2021
    XGID=--C-BBDb--B--B-----abcc-d-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 be01b38da7a3ea6642efa77eb97f40eef3ad11638bff42aa751

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | X O | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X O | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 77 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 54

    Sneak preview of next problem:
    Make the 18pt or the 11pt? 2a3986701061094b3c4598d8a529ca51c253eea110322d17d9963f53
    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Aug 1 11:38:00 2021
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=--C-BBDb--B--B-----abcc-d-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 >be01b38da7a3ea6642efa77eb97f40eef3ad11638bff42aa751

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | X O | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X O | | X X X X | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 77 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 54

    Sneak preview of next problem:
    Make the 18pt or the 11pt? >2a3986701061094b3c4598d8a529ca51c253eea110322d17d9963f53
    ---
    Tim Chow


    I wouldn't. I think O is in trouble unless he gets 22, 44, 55.

    Let's try shifting home board points. 6/1, 5/1.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 3 08:29:13 2021
    XGID=--C-BBDb--B--B-----abcc-d-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 be01b38da7a3ea6642efa77eb97f40eef3ad11638bff42aa751

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | X O | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X O | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 77 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 54

    Playing 10/6 10/5 avoids wasting pips in the race, but gives up on
    getting a double shot if O is forced to break anchor next turn with
    61 62 64 65. In fact X might even be able to wait one more turn to
    get the double shot.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/1 5/1 eq:+0.270
    Player: 53.64% (G:3.47% B:0.09%)
    Opponent: 46.36% (G:1.87% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.264..+0.275) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:+0.251 (-0.019)
    Player: 52.64% (G:3.19% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 47.36% (G:2.21% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.245..+0.256) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/5 6/2 eq:+0.209 (-0.060)
    Player: 51.08% (G:4.94% B:0.17%)
    Opponent: 48.92% (G:2.36% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.204..+0.214) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 10/1 eq:+0.197 (-0.072)
    Player: 51.30% (G:6.14% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 48.70% (G:3.33% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.192..+0.202) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.175 (-0.095)
    Player: 50.53% (G:2.11% B:0.06%)
    Opponent: 49.47% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.170..+0.180) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)