XGID=-BBB--CCA---e----dBcba----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/20/2023 9:05 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-BBB--CCA---e----dBcba----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |             O  X |   | O  O  O          | +---+
 |             O  X |   | O  O             | | 2 |
 |             O    |   | O                | +---+
 |             O    |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O              X |   | X                |
 | O              X |   | X        X  X  X |
 | O           X  X |   | X        X  X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 95  O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

Making the four point seems obvious. Maybe slotting the four and five
points is the bot play? Burying checkers seems wrong, but maybe X wants
to slow down to preserve sixes that force him off the anchor. Running
off the 18 and leaving a double shot seems wrong even with her weak
board and homeboard blot to shoot at.


QF says otherwise, but I'll make the four point here.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BBB--CCA---e----dBcba----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

Strategically, X would like to run off his anchor, because he has a
big lead in the pip count, but tactically, he has to watch out for
the risk of being hit. Even though O has only a two-point board,
that is typically already enough to give X pause, especially since
X has an attractive alternative play of making his 4pt. However,
O has a blot in her board, and 18/16 18/14 perfectly duplicates
O's 4's and 2's to hit and cover. XG says that's enough to tip
the balance in favor of 18/16 18/14.

In Variant 1, the roll has been changed to 43, and in Variant 2,
O has only a one-point board, but no blot.

1. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/14 eq:+0.174
Player: 62.47% (G:12.60% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 37.53% (G:4.99% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.167..+0.182) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.114 (-0.060)
Player: 61.83% (G:5.48% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 38.17% (G:3.86% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.107..+0.121) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 7/5 eq:+0.094 (-0.080)
Player: 61.09% (G:5.61% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 38.91% (G:4.33% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.087..+0.101) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-BBB--CCA---e----dBcba----:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 7/4 eq:+0.111
Player: 61.79% (G:5.79% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 38.21% (G:3.62% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.104..+0.118) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/15 18/14 eq:+0.081 (-0.030)
Player: 60.65% (G:8.54% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 39.35% (G:5.20% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.074..+0.088) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-BBB--CCA---e----eBe------:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O | +---+
| O X | | O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/14 eq:+0.496
Player: 75.73% (G:10.47% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 24.27% (G:2.75% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.490..+0.502) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.480 (-0.016)
Player: 75.36% (G:9.53% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 24.64% (G:1.97% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.474..+0.487) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)