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  • Boxen to play

    From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 7 10:17:45 2021
    XGID=--a---EbC--bbC--Ac-eB---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O O X O | | X |
    | O O X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 173 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Sun Nov 7 11:25:45 2021
    On Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 3:17:50 PM UTC, ah...Clem wrote:
    XGID=--a---EbC--bbC--Ac-eB---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O O X O | | X |
    | O O X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 173 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66
    This is another Gruntyization with a huge number of choices, so I doubt that I'll get this right.
    Backgammon is primarily a race so how about minimizing shots, and hoping for an opportunity to cash
    in the racing lead later?
    I'm playing 20/14(2) 16/4.
    It reminds me of Dennis Taylor's quip when he played Cliff Thorburn:
    "If I make you go again, will you promise not to pot it?"

    Paul

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Sun Nov 7 19:58:38 2021
    On 11/7/2021 10:17 AM, ah...Clem wrote:
    XGID=--a---EbC--bbC--Ac-eB---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O O X O | | X |
    | O O X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 173 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

    I'd like to seize the lead in the race with this roll, but the
    trouble is that our race lead is fragile. O gets plenty of
    return shots no matter what we play, and we can't make any
    really good new points.

    I'll try the unusual-looking 20/2* 8/2. This way, even if O
    hits back, we don't lose all that many pips, and we get a bunch
    of return shots of our own. I'm a little nervous about giving
    up the golden point, but O has scant ammunition to attack us with
    so I think it's okay.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 9 17:41:18 2021
    I'm not sure that I would have seen the right play OTB. It came up in an
    online humans vs XG game and it was multiple choice. Once I saw the point-on-head play it seemed like the right play. I had to think a bit
    about whether it was worth breaking the GP anchor but O has no board,
    only 8 in the zone, and after this play X will be far enough ahead in
    the race that running off the anchor should be sound.

    Most of the group voted for 20/14(2) 16/4 including NeilKaz.

    We've been chatting a bit here about playing doubles other than 2-and-2
    and this is an example where 3-and-1 is best but perhaps hard to see OTB.


    XGID=--a---EbC--bbC--Ac-eB---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O O X O | | X |
    | O O X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 173 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

    1. Rollout¹ 20/2* 8/2 eq:+0.108
    Player: 51.95% (G:17.41% B:0.57%)
    Opponent: 48.05% (G:11.86% B:0.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.089..+0.127) - [99.9%]
    Duration: 9 minutes 16 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 20/14(2) 16/4 eq:+0.070 (-0.038)
    Player: 51.83% (G:12.30% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 48.17% (G:11.36% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.056..+0.084) - [0.1%]
    Duration: 9 minutes 46 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ 24/18 16/10 8/2*(2) eq:+0.053 (-0.055)
    Player: 50.47% (G:15.90% B:0.57%)
    Opponent: 49.53% (G:10.99% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.036..+0.070) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds

    4. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/14(2) 16/10 eq:+0.051 (-0.057)
    Player: 51.56% (G:10.87% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 48.44% (G:11.55% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.034..+0.067) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 10 minutes 41 seconds

    5. 3-ply 16/4 8/2*(2) eq:+0.023 (-0.085)
    Player: 49.32% (G:15.39% B:0.35%)
    Opponent: 50.68% (G:10.74% B:0.35%)


    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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