XGID=--a--BCCBA-Aa--b-d-eBb--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/19/2023 8:48 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a--BCCBA-Aa--b-d-eBb--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       O     O    |   | O  X  O        X |
 |       O     O    |   | O  X  O          |
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                X |   | X                |
 |             X  X |   | X  X             |
 | O  X     X  X  X |   | X  X        O    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 149  O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

A solid five prime when the opponent is not at the edge is very strong.
So, I'll make the nine point here. X trails in the race, so a bold play
is called for. 24/13 seems insufficiently bold and the POH play seems
mainly to break the prime while allowing her to move the runner up to
where it sees daylight.

20/9.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a--BCCBA-Aa--b-d-eBb--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

X is the clear favorite in this position, since he is doing a good
job of containing O's straggler, which is not at the edge of X's prime.
There's no need to panic with 8/2* 6/2, which weakens X's prime.
Extending to a five-prime looks tempting, but breaking the golden
point gives O too much counterplay against X's stragglers. Running
24/13 might seem counterintuitive at first because X is still behind
in the pip count, but the reason for running is not the race; it's
to further his priming game plan.

Even after this explanation, though, I'm still amazed that 20/9 and
8/2* 7/2 are in triple-whopper territory.

1. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:+0.587
Player: 65.54% (G:12.42% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 34.46% (G:7.76% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.572..+0.601) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/9 eq:+0.314 (-0.273)
Player: 59.61% (G:13.90% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 40.39% (G:14.30% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.297..+0.330) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2* 7/2 eq:+0.277 (-0.310)
Player: 55.61% (G:19.40% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 44.39% (G:10.10% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.263..+0.290) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)