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  • 4-away/4-away recube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 18 09:46:20 2023
    XGID=---a-CCBB-B-AA--Ab-cbc-bb-:1:1:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | X X X | | X X | | 2 |
    | X X X X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 124 O: 84 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Sep 18 12:04:16 2023
    On 9/18/2023 9:46 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---a-CCBB-B-AA--Ab-cbc-bb-:1:1:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X        X  O    |   | O  O  O     O  O |
     |             O    |   | O  O  O     O  O |
     |                  |   | O     O          |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X  X             | +---+
     |       X     X  X |   | X  X             | | 2 |
     | X     X     X  X |   | X  X     O       | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 124  O: 84 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action


    O's takepoint is 33% here. I count seven rolls to make the nine point,
    plus the ten or so POH rolls and there seems to be sufficent market
    losers to ship it. If O is not hit and X fails to make the nine point
    and O rolls a six it's basically game over. And with a 40 pip lead
    there's several chances to leap and run. So, I'll say take. Not sure
    though.

    R/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 20 09:04:19 2023
    XGID=---a-CCBB-B-AA--Ab-cbc-bb-:1:1:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | X X X | | X X | | 2 |
    | X X X X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 124 O: 84 X-O: 3-3/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    As ah...clem said, O's take point is 33%, which of course means she
    has to pass much more readily than for money. While X is clearly the
    favorite here, I thought that O should have close to 40% winning
    chances, given her 40-pip lead, five-point board, and straggler ready
    to leap out with a 6. But XG says it's a pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:4.06% B:0.04%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.68% B:0.17%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.35% (G:5.81% B:0.20%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.65% (G:11.26% B:0.13%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.694 (-0.306)
    Redouble/Take: +1.088 (+0.088)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.688..+0.699)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+1.076..+1.100)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)