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  • 3-away/2-away cube action 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Sep 17 08:40:07 2023
    XGID=-a--bBC-CC--aB---d-e-bAA--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 149 X-O: 4-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Sep 18 11:58:13 2023
    On 9/17/2023 8:40 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--bBC-CC--aB---d-e-bAA--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O     O  X  X    |
     | X           O    |   | O     O          |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |          X  X    |   | X                |
     |          X  X    |   | X  X  O          |
     | O        X  X    |   | X  X  O        O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 150  O: 149 X-O: 4-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    35% is the leader's takepoint when there is the usual amount of gammons
    to be had. O owns the four point, so that should prevent too many
    gammons, but she also has a third checker back and if X can hit the blot
    on the 12 the gammon rate should increase. So, I'll say it's about
    normal and ask if O has 35% GWC here.


    Looks like that and more. But the 15 rolls that hit the outfield blot
    look like market losers so it's probably time to ship it.

    D/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 19 08:45:51 2023
    XGID=-a--bBC-CC--aB---d-e-bAA--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 149 X-O: 4-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    The rollout says that this is a clear pass. Again, I was surprised
    by this verdict. This time, I underestimated how often X wins this
    game. After all, O has an advanced anchor and the pip count is even.
    But O's structure is awful.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.04% (G:13.97% B:0.81%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.96% (G:8.03% B:0.57%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.54% (G:13.62% B:1.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.46% (G:8.02% B:0.76%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.902 (-0.098)
    Double/Take: +1.066 (+0.066)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.891..+0.913)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.050..+1.081)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Sep 27 15:14:09 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 8:45:54 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--bBC-CC--aB---d-e-bAA--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 149 X-O: 4-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    The rollout says that this is a clear pass. Again, I was surprised
    by this verdict. This time, I underestimated how often X wins this
    game. After all, O has an advanced anchor and the pip count is even.
    But O's structure is awful.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.04% (G:13.97% B:0.81%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.96% (G:8.03% B:0.57%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.54% (G:13.62% B:1.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.46% (G:8.02% B:0.76%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.902 (-0.098)
    Double/Take: +1.066 (+0.066)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.891..+0.913)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.050..+1.081)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The pip count being even is fake news as 15 rolls hit that outfield checker and another three rolls make a solid five prime where the opponent has three men trapped behind it. That's half the rolls where the race no longer even matters.

    Stick

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)