XGID=bcBE-CC----------bccb-----:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O | +---+
| O O | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | O | X |
| | | X X X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 52 O: 187 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 9/15/2023 8:25 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=bcBE-CC----------bccb-----:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |             O  O |   | O  O             | +---+
 |             O  O |   | O  O             | | 2 |
 |                O |   | O                | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |          X       |
 |                  | O |          X       |
 |                  |   | X  X     X     O |
 |                  |   | X  X     X  X  O |
 |                  |   | X  X     X  X  O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 52  O: 187 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

Ripping four off seems a bit too aggressive. If X can avoid leaving a
shot that would seem to be best. I'm not very good at shot counting, but
6/off 3/off(2) seems to leave fewer shots than 6/off 6/3(2). And
stripping both the 5 and 6 points with 6/off 5/2 3/off leaves the
devastating 65 roll to expose a double shot.

So, 6/off 3/off(2).

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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XGID=bcBE-CC----------bccb-----:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O | +---+
| O O | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | O | X |
| | | X X X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 52 O: 187 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

The logic here is really the same as in the previous problem. Just
clear from the rear. Psychologically, though, it can be difficult
to resist the temptation to bear off at least one checker with such
a roll.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3(3) 5/2 eq:+1.275
Player: 78.88% (G:63.22% B:16.35%)
Opponent: 21.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+1.262..+1.289) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/3(2) 6/Off eq:+1.191 (-0.084)
Player: 76.50% (G:59.57% B:17.57%)
Opponent: 23.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+1.176..+1.207) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/Off 3/Off(2) eq:+1.133 (-0.143)
Player: 73.60% (G:54.99% B:22.88%)
Opponent: 26.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+1.120..+1.145) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:39:30 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=bcBE-CC----------bccb-----:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O | +---+
| O O | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | O | X |
| | | X X X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 52 O: 187 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33
The logic here is really the same as in the previous problem. Just
clear from the rear. Psychologically, though, it can be difficult
to resist the temptation to bear off at least one checker with such
a roll.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3(3) 5/2 eq:+1.275
Player: 78.88% (G:63.22% B:16.35%)
Opponent: 21.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+1.262..+1.289) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/3(2) 6/Off eq:+1.191 (-0.084)
Player: 76.50% (G:59.57% B:17.57%)
Opponent: 23.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+1.176..+1.207) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/Off 3/Off(2) eq:+1.133 (-0.143)
Player: 73.60% (G:54.99% B:22.88%)
Opponent: 26.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+1.120..+1.145) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

The logic is just clear from the rear because it's safest and a gammon is a sure thing as long as we don't get hit. (and backgammon nearly as likely because of the speedy bear off) You'd have to wildly change the position but if you move a lot of
checkers naturally to the opp's home board you will be able to see a point where it's correct and clearly correct to rip off checkers here instead of playing safe overall.

Stick

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