XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--ab-cbAbA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/11/2023 9:20 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--ab-cbAbA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O    |   | O  O  X  O  X    |
 | X           O    |   | O  O     O       |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |             X    | O |                  |
 |             X    |   |    O             |
 |             X    |   | X  O        X  X |
 | X           X    |   | X  O        X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 132  O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

O has the GP while X has four checkers out of play on the ace and deuce.
But O also has two on the roof against a three point board and ten in
the zone.

I'll ship it here and make it O's problem. Regardless of whether it's a
take or not, many will get the take decision wrong. Seems like a take
to me due to the advanced anchor and the possibility of making a second
anchor. And the buried checkers of course.

D/T.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--ab-cbAbA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

There are a lot of factors to weigh in this position, and the tradeoffs
are not easy to assess IMO. I thought this was a pass, but XG thinks
that (among other things) X's back checkers are contained enough to
give O and easy take. See the variant below for comparison.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.16% (G:37.07% B:1.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.84% (G:9.45% B:0.52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.21% (G:37.37% B:1.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.79% (G:9.84% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.735 (-0.105)
Double/Take: +0.839
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.161)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.719..+0.751)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.816..+0.862)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--abAcb-bA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.17% (G:37.47% B:1.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.83% (G:8.65% B:0.54%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.39% (G:37.93% B:1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.61% (G:8.95% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.824 (-0.150)
Double/Take: +0.974
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.026)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.809..+0.840)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.953..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On September 13, 2023 at 7:43:24 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--ab-cbAbA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
There are a lot of factors to weigh in this position...

Since you "gave me the math" "21^7 < 2^32 < 21^8"
I no longer bother with factors to weigh, etc. I just
deduce the seed after 8-9 roll and wham! :)

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, September 11, 2023 at 2:45:37 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:

On 9/11/2023 9:20 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--ab-cbAbA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

O has the GP while X has four checkers out of play on the ace and deuce.
But O also has two on the roof against a three point board and ten in
the zone.

I'll ship it here and make it O's problem. Regardless of whether it's a
take or not, many will get the take decision wrong. Seems like a take
to me due to the advanced anchor and the possibility of making a second anchor. And the buried checkers of course.

D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

I wouldn't refer to X's checkers as either out of play nor as buried here.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)