XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

Here again, I thought that risking getting another checker sent behind
O's broken prime was inadvisable, especially since I have a race lead
and my game plan is to escape my straggler safely. The trouble is that
the safe play of 11/6 11/5 leaves us with an inflexible position. We
have 10 checkers in the zone (not counting the checkers on the 11pt)
and we have the same number of home-board points as our opponent, so a
blitz has a reasonable chance of success.

In the variant, I have moved X's 6pt spare to his midpoint. This
reduces X's racing lead, so you might think it would make him more
willing to risk getting hit. But in the variant, he has only 9 checkers
in the zone, and 11/6 11/5 creates a flexible spare distribution.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3* 8/2* eq:-0.084
Player: 45.37% (G:24.57% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 54.63% (G:22.30% B:1.99%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.095..-0.073) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/3* eq:-0.115 (-0.031)
Player: 45.58% (G:21.68% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 54.42% (G:22.43% B:1.30%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.128..-0.101) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/6 11/5 eq:-0.188 (-0.105)
Player: 43.39% (G:15.66% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 56.61% (G:13.93% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.200..-0.176) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-Baa-BB-C--BbC---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 11/6 11/5 eq:-0.201
Player: 43.41% (G:14.94% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 56.59% (G:15.84% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.212..-0.190) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/2* eq:-0.243 (-0.042)
Player: 43.29% (G:16.20% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 56.71% (G:20.93% B:1.06%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.255..-0.231) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/3* eq:-0.261 (-0.061)
Player: 43.18% (G:18.30% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 56.82% (G:25.04% B:1.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.274..-0.249) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/2* eq:-0.263 (-0.063)
Player: 42.86% (G:17.47% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 57.14% (G:22.20% B:1.16%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.277..-0.250) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/3* 8/2* eq:-0.264 (-0.063)
Player: 41.48% (G:19.91% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 58.52% (G:24.99% B:2.03%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.286..-0.242) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/25/2023 8:36 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O     O  O  X    |
 | X           O  O |   | O     O  O       |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X                |
 | O  X        X    |   | X  X           X |
 | O  X        X    |   | X  X     O  O  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 125  O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

Whacking two is always worth a good look, but seems too lose here. Ahead
in the race, clearing the eleven and leaving no additional shots seems thematic, so I'll do that.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)